Primers prices

[Nolan]

7 hours ago, ysrracer said:

 

I know guys in their 60's, 70's, 80's that are still buying primers and ammo, and they hardly shoot because they don't have enough.

 

I think they have a problem

 

Hey now, I resemble that remark!  

 

3 hours ago, RudyVey said:

Do not believe the prices come down anytime soon. We are getting milked....and they make super profits.

 

https://www.theoutdoorwire.com/features/d11eff2f-0d9b-4f5a-866c-f16e8632a445

 

Don't look like super profits.

 

In case TL,DR

 

On Thursday, Vista announced its Q3 FY 2023 earnings, with a decrease of $40 million compared to same quarter sales a year ago. Profits also declined, with the company citing “increased promotional activity, mix shift, and higher input costs including freight.”

Overall, earnings (EBIT) decreased 39 percent to $97 million, with earnings per share of $1.13, down 44 percent compared to Q3 2022.

 

Nolan

[Miranda]

10 minutes ago, Nolan said:

 

LOL!  I need Twenty-Five 1.5 ohm 1% 200 watt resistors, Twenty-Five 2.0 ohm 1% 200 watt resistors and Twenty-Five 3.5 ohm 1% 200 watt resistors for each of 2 load cells.  Hard to hand wind with 1% accuracy to fit the form factor and temperature requirements, been there done that, ain't doing it again!  Plus I'm already working 50 hour weeks and this is only one of 7 projects I already have going.

 

Nolan

Hi Nolan,

I re-read your post after I posted  and thought,  that would take some time...  I wonder if he has room for a

large home made resistor...  and yeah it took careful  adjustment to get my shunt  into

a serviceable range.   I'll just have to hope he does not take offense,  for that is an area where he does seem more knowledgeable than me.   This may help explain a bit, I did look at making a triode vacuum tube.

the glasswork seemed possible, but that vacuum was not something I wanted to try.

The materials and setup gave me pause.

miranda

 

 

 

[Miranda]

ummm are we truly going to drag the stock market and those data items into this discussion?

do you know how much arguing we will do just over the meanings of those bits of useless data?

 

I can read those items and quote them.   the word ledgerdemain roars back from my deep past.

( a failed software project...)

 

My read is that the company is financially sound and has a good income stream

and made so much money the previous two years they had to find expenses.

 

The price of diesel fuel jumped, I agree,  but why label that increased freight?

and 40 million is a lot of fuel... 

 

 in any case, lets assume all that outdoorvista said  is true and complete, 

My thinking goes this way...

gotta point out the price of  primers has fallen over the past few months.

The fall in price of primers and the fall in profits appear directly linked...

If that is true, I can understand why they hate selling primers,

cause they will need to sell something else after we quit buying their

very profitable primers.

I see a short tenure for the next CEO.

 

oh this is fun.  

my Tequila stash needs bigger citizens.

 

miranda

[Miranda]

welp.  getting drunk solved nothing here....

 

I had this thought

what will happen when every one who has a firearm

decided to get more than a 10 year supply?

the record demand the past few years and the slight taper off

does imply  it takes three years to meet that market demand.

 

at some point most will stop buying for at least a few years.

this will be a painful time for ammo makers...

or at least the CEOs.

 

some how I do not think they will be grateful for my purchasing

the cheap ammo and primers during their drought.

 

and we spin onward.

 

miranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ysrracer]

This year's Christmas / Black Friday sales were unheard of. Up to 50% of on lots of stuff.

 

I assume they needed to raise cash due to people loading up at the beginning of the pandemic, and not because they're so friggin generous?

[21 shooter]

I recently tried some Servicio brand primers made in Argentina.  Not revolver friendly but ran fine in 3 brands semi-auto’s.  At about 40 percent cheaper than any American made primers I will get another case if I can.  I will use CCI, Federal, and Winchester for match ammo.

 Ammo companies no longer have any competition like they did 20 years ago and basically control the market.  Primer prices will follow market demand. As long as customers wait in line to shell out $100 a brick for primers companies have no reason to lower prices.   I just hope prices go back to normal before I run out of primers and 22’s.  Although I haven’t been fishing in a long time……..

Edited February 9, 2023 by 21 shooter

[LordManHammer]

I just heard a detailed radio story about the staggering amount of munitions being used in Ukraine.  NATO allies are supplying so much weaponry and ammo their own stockpiles are being depleted faster than they can be replenished.  Everyone in the world will be seeking the same raw materials to recreate their stockpiles.  It's not likely prices are going to come down for years if at all.

[ysrracer]

34 minutes ago, LordManHammer said:

I just heard a detailed radio story about the staggering amount of munitions being used in Ukraine.  NATO allies are supplying so much weaponry and ammo their own stockpiles are being depleted faster than they can be replenished.  Everyone in the world will be seeking the same raw materials to recreate their stockpiles.  It's not likely prices are going to come down for years if at all.

 

That makes sense, but again, 9mm ammo can be found for roughly double or triple the price of a single primer.

 

Something just doesn't add up.

[Miranda]

ok some quick fact checking says:

Lead metal is lower than a year ago.

copper is doing a little more than inflation.

(depends on what you think is the inflation rate...)

 

so no... the raw materials for small arms ammo are not scarce.

 

If there were any truth to that radio broadcast as depicted,

we would be swimming in primers because ammo makers

would not have cases nor bullets to make ammo.

I also assume manufacturers will sell what they can.

 

perhaps machinery for making ammo is in high demand...

and again it does not explain the primer prices we are enjoying.

 

I have a cache of lead and thought for a minute I'd be able

to sell it for more than I paid.

Not yet.

 

miranda
 

[ysrracer]

Primers, that's how they get ya

[RudyVey]

1 hour ago, Miranda said:

ok some quick fact checking says:

Lead metal is lower than a year ago.

copper is doing a little more than inflation.

(depends on what you think is the inflation rate...)

 

so no... the raw materials for small arms ammo are not scarce.

 

If there were any truth to that radio broadcast as depicted,

we would be swimming in primers because ammo makers

would not have cases nor bullets to make ammo.

I also assume manufacturers will sell what they can.

 

perhaps machinery for making ammo is in high demand...

and again it does not explain the primer prices we are enjoying.

 

I have a cache of lead and thought for a minute I'd be able

to sell it for more than I paid.

Not yet.

 

miranda
 

Could you imagine how much money they must have lost before the pandemic when primers were only $30/k.....and ammo was $10/50 rounds for 9 mm.....

[21 shooter]

13 minutes ago, RudyVey said:

Could you imagine how much money they must have lost before the pandemic when primers were only $30/k.....and ammo was $10/50 rounds for 9 mm.....

Thats calling BS on something with a sarcastic tone.  I like your style sir, cuts right through the smoke and mirrors. 

[plinker625]

You all are forgetting a few things.....

#1 Vista Outdoor is a large company with many brands under the umbrella.  They have bought some companies over the last year.  That could account for loss in earnings.

#2 Vista Outdoor is going to split off the Munitions portion of the company as a separate entity this year. 

#3 OEM's do not change prices like the NY Stock Exchange.  Wholesalers do change prices at the drop of a hat.  After Parkland HS shooting a Colt 6920 went nearly 999.00 when at the same wholesaler they were in the upper 600 range the day before.  Most bigbox venues are direct with the big boys.  So it is the big boys taking the market for a ride not the OEM.

#4 Vista Outdoor has played games with primers.  With a glut of RCBS hardware sitting on their warehouse shelves they made deals with big box places buy X of RCBS and get primers.  Heck RCBS is selling sets of dies with a brick of primers...

 

We all can remember better days of prices of consumables.....growing up I got primers for like 6.99 a 1k.  Powder was $10.00#.

 

All these new primer companies are sure taking their time coming to market.  Expansion Ammo was supposed to be shipping primers last year....and God only knows.  That First Breach is supposed to have primers.....

And with Beretta building an ammo plant to make ammo and components. 

 

Hodgdon can not make their mind up.  One day they say they are discontinuing their Enduron line of powders.  And, now they say it was only a suspension of production...

 

 

 

 

 

[ysrracer]

[shred]

 

3 hours ago, plinker625 said:

 

All these new primer companies are sure taking their time coming to market.  Expansion Ammo was supposed to be shipping primers last year....and God only knows.  That First Breach is supposed to have primers.....

And with Beretta building an ammo plant to make ammo and components. 

 

You have to wonder... they probably aren't all terrible businessmen, so maybe there's more to making primers than just punching out some metal and squeezing in some lead styphnate goo.

 

Just bought a pile of jacketed bullets from a non-Vista maker... up 10% from a year ago.

 

[Miranda]

ok... my single biggest issue with the price of primers is availability.

the profits to be made are large.  There has to be a reason we can't get them.

 

Common lies to refute.
past posts others and I have stated the case for why these are deceptive.
so this may be stuff heard elsewhere.

 

-Primers are the real bottleneck in the production.

-We are so busy making _real_ ammo that there are no primers left over.
  - - - followed by common opinions about why they can't make more.
  - - - I assume ammo. but they may mean primers...

 

-Primers are not as profitable as _real_ ammo.

 

-The primer market is so small we do not care to supply it.

 

If you want to add to this list please do so and expect that
it will get considered...

 

The only 'Reason' where I have nothing direct to show why I find it hard to believe
is the production of primers
I read the same comment in 2008.

it causes me concern that a company that could make (an arbitrary number...)
a million rounds per day would have anything less than
the ability to make an equal number of primers.  
That is basic production logistics.  that part is easy.
so the primers are the bottle neck?  If you are
running a factory and the primer making machine stops working
what will you do?

 

Everything you know to prevent that failure.

One way is to make CERTAIN.  You have a spare machine.
Do you think the primer machine never breaks?
Maybe the primer compound is the real bottleneck...
I have to point out that is not quite the same as
primers are the bottleneck.  the disbelief for this is similar.
Some spare capacity is required to keep production at rated pace.
there may be some truth to this limit... however?

If other ammo making machines ever break, will there not be spare primers?
So lets give that 'reason' a pass for a moment as some other lies kinda point
back here and undermine the possibility of this being Complete Truth.

one reason I find it hard to believe is that it has happened twice in less than 15 years.

 

next is a real question of what is 'profitable'
this one is hard... so what would you do if you could invest 20 bucks and get 100 bucks
every time you invested 20 dollars?
Next is invest 40 dollars AND time and additional work past the first kind of investment
and your profit is 210 dollars.  A slight increase and a lot more effort, I expect most would pick the first.

Real numbers are (1000 9mm is 300 dollars) and the components total over 100 bucks  before you get to primers
so ammo companies are stating larger profits selling 1000 9mm.
120 dollars invested and 180 returned.
This second example is what ammo makers are stating  for why loaded ammo is more profitable.
I have been told that they can sell far more loaded ammo than components,
 I can accept that as truth. I do wonder how Starline stays in Biz...

From that last example you may notice the primers are half the profits of the loaded ammo.

I have been told that Return On Investment is the ONLY way to know your profit.
The ROI of primers is 300 to 400 percent and that range is because we are guessing
some of the investment numbers.  We know the gross income on primers...
The ROI on loaded 9mm is 150percent  and I am much more confident of that ROI as high.

so loaded ammo is more gross income but it is not more profitable.

 

This last one, that the primer market is so small we do not care to supply it.
I want to state it is true...
and I think that it is a lie either in size or intent.
and this one is were I find my greatest... anger?

First is the primer market is small, ok how small.
A bad day at the factory and the reloaders have all they will buy in a year?
lets go with that for a moment.  sweep up the few primers, box 'em and have
us all taken care of for a year or more.  Goodness, the good will involved
will make the increased profits even more valuable.

 

y'all think the primer market is a bit bigger?
I think the ammo makers are sure that they can sell enough loaded ammo
that the loss of the primer market will not push them into insolvency.
so it is small potatoes.

 

My own opinion is the comment has not a bit to do with the income the
primers bring and a lot to do with the fact that they think
every primer sold as a single primer is one less round they can sell.

 

think... a primer sale is supplying the competition.

 

This last point is the only bit of sense I can find in this mess.

so when the new primer making companies get going
I will avoid the cheaper primers from our current big makers
because I don't want them to think I am taking food out of their mouths.
The damn nitwits.

 

miranda

[Miranda]

1 hour ago, shred said:

 

You have to wonder... they probably aren't all terrible businessmen, so maybe there's more to making primers than just punching out some metal and squeezing in some lead styphnate goo.

 

Just bought a pile of jacketed bullets from a non-Vista maker... up 10% from a year ago.

 

Hi shred,  did plinker remove his post?  ETA: NM  found it.

 

as a comment on making primers,  I know it is a simple process to make primers.

Both the chemistry and the brass stampings are straight forward.

automating that process can be ... difficult.

 

There are regs to hop through and I can imagine the regulators are in no hurry to help.

to make this clear, while I may be able to make primers, I know I can't sell or give them away

AND

the chemicals that lead to the compound are under more than a little scrutiny.

so there is an uphill battle that current manufacturers never had to face.

 

I am confident once 'NewBigPrimerCo' reaches the market

the competition will undercut them.  

 

Now that current ammo makers have done a good job of removing my goodwill

I can only hope the new outfit makes reliable primers.

'cause I do not see buying anything else...

 

miranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Miranda
marked in the text

[ysrracer]

tl;dr

 

Cliff notes, we're screwed.

[Miranda]

20 minutes ago, ysrracer said:

tl;dr

 

Cliff notes, we're screwed.

primers are currently wildly profitable.

any who say otherwise are selling something instead of primers

 

why they are not selling primers has a lot to do with creating a vertical monopoly.

... for something besides primers?

 

and my opinions of the rest stand on a lot of observations.

 

please take the time to read, I did try to keep it short.

miranda

[motosapiens]

18 hours ago, Miranda said:

ok... my single biggest issue with the price of primers is availability.

the profits to be made are large.  There has to be a reason we can't get them.

 

 

they've been freely available at the local hardware store, and even at the grocery store for about 6 months. They're more than i like to pay, but they've been in stock consistently. I also see them regularly at a handful of online retailers.

 

i've been buying 1-2k every 2 weeks since the fall. price has come down from 129/k, to 99, now 79 (all prices before the 10% senior discount, lol).

 

Now that shelves are full of ammo, and the pipeline is filling with primers, i expect prices will very gradually start to fall.

[ysrracer]

Sportsman's Warehouse in Phoenix has CCI Small Pistol Primers for $5.49 a 100. Limit 200.

 

So prices are coming down.

[Miranda]

if by 'freely available' you mean the 100 dollar  plus kind...

yes.  

 

I had to visit a gunshow to see any, I have not yet seen primers at my fav gunstore...

2 months back last I looked.

 

There was a period where they were not available and that was the real problem.

Available now? That may have more to do with the new primers from foreign lands

or the new US based primer makers looking to begin production and sales.

 

that thar is one heck of a coincidence.

 

miranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Miranda]

1 minute ago, ysrracer said:

Sportsman's Warehouse in Phoenix has CCI Small Pistol Primers for $5.49 a 100. Limit 200.

 

So prices are coming down.

ooooo,   I hope I see those price soon.   any chance the powders will disappear?

 

[Johnny_Chimpo]

2 hours ago, Miranda said:

if by 'freely available' you mean the 100 dollar  plus kind...

yes.  

 

I had to visit a gunshow to see any, I have not yet seen primers at my fav gunstore...

2 months back last I looked.

 

There was a period where they were not available and that was the real problem.

Available now? That may have more to do with the new primers from foreign lands

or the new US based primer makers looking to begin production and sales.

 

that thar is one heck of a coincidence.

 

miranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pay to play or find another game

 

It's just the way it is

[Miranda]

1 hour ago, Johnny_Chimpo said:

 

Pay to play or find another game

 

It's just the way it is

so I spent some time recently figuring out how to build a primer reloading press.

I thought it may be a good way to make money. (selling the 6 hole press and dies)

 

I guess it may depends on who you want to pay.

Edited February 11, 2023 by Miranda
typo