Someone is lying about the powder shortage

[Chills1994]

The gov't isn't smart enough to cause this type of shortage.

We did it ...

But anti 2nd Amendment types coming to power were most certainly the catalyst for this event AND the previous ones.

Just a heads-up! this thread is on the verge of being closed and locked!

I started a thread with the same content, And before I knew it and it was a very civil discussion, The thread was locked!

Just my 2cents

Your thread got locked because it was too herpy derpy tin foil hat conspiracy.

Trust me, I love to hear conspiracy theories, but your Ferris Buelller's "my sister's boyfriend's barber's dog groomer said he saw five WalMart semi-tractor trailers filled floor to ceiling with .22LR" was just a bit much to take.

But maybe you're right???

Wasn't it that movie Blood Diamond with Leonardo DiCaprio where they basically insinuate that DeBeer's has a basement filled floor to ceiling with drawers filled with diamonds, just to restrict supply and drive prices up.

I mean OPEC does it all the time with their oil production just to screw with gas prices here in the US.

[alma]

The gov't isn't smart enough to cause this type of shortage.

We did it ...

But anti 2nd Amendment types coming to power were most certainly the catalyst for this event AND the previous ones.

Just a heads-up! this thread is on the verge of being closed and locked!

I started a thread with the same content, And before I knew it and it was a very civil discussion, The thread was locked!

Just my 2cents

Your thread got locked because it was too herpy derpy tin foil hat conspiracy.

Trust me, I love to hear conspiracy theories, but your Ferris Buelller's "my sister's boyfriend's barber's dog groomer said he saw five WalMart semi-tractor trailers filled floor to ceiling with .22LR" was just a bit much to take.

But maybe you're right???

Wasn't it that movie Blood Diamond with Leonardo DiCaprio where they basically insinuate that DeBeer's has a basement filled floor to ceiling with drawers filled with diamonds, just to restrict supply and drive prices up.

I mean OPEC does it all the time with their oil production just to screw with gas prices here in the US.

That has been one of the admirable things about this who crisis is that through it all the powder manufacturers and most of the resellers have taken the high road and maintained prices even though in the context of the shortage they certainly could have raised prices to help control demand. The Gun Show crowd is another store altogether of course.

[motosapiens]

That has been one of the admirable things about this who crisis is that through it all the powder manufacturers and most of the resellers have taken the high road and maintained prices even though in the context of the shortage they certainly could have raised prices to help control demand. The Gun Show crowd is another store altogether of course.

That's actually a big part of the problem. It creates a disparity in supply and demand that individual entrepeneurs/thieves are taking advantage of.

If every mfr doubled their powder prices temporarily, I bet powder would suddenly be available, and prices could gradually return to normal.

[alma]

That is the action that the free market would generally dictate and you are correct that other entrepreneurs are entering to take advantage of that gap. I guess they are trying to be the "good" guys in this time of crisis but I agree it contributes to scarcity and price gouging from other sources. I remember though that Cheaper Than Dirt was getting some bad press here for high prices despite their strong support for the shooting community. Not sure if that was a result of increased price from suppliers or for other purposes.

Several suppliers started limiting the number of primers or amount of powder that could be purchased and shipped on one order. After paying the shipping and hazmat fees for a smaller quantity of primers it added maybe 50% or more to the cost of purchasing. It kind of sucked to pay the inflated rates but they seemed to have very consistent availability for a longer period of time by enforcing these restriction. My local Walmarts had a three-box limit going for some time and even then some got creative with stockpiling to eventually resell at the gun shows. Happy to say that now the ammo cabinets at the local Walmart are mostly full again and the restriction has been lifted for everything but .22lr, which is something that I have not seen for a very long time.

[Miranda]

so the powder shortage is over?

we found it all in the hands of hoarders and scalpers?

all we need is wait a while and it will settle down?

k... I'll give it a try.

ummm

back a ways in the thread someone asked if our supply chain is fragile.

the answer is that yes we can break it.... by hoarding is one way

there are other ways ... earthquakes and floods can limit manufacture or transport

and cause hoarding and scalping....

but one way to understand the 'break' is to watch the details to see the effect.

lets assume everyone here has a little more than one year's supply of powder

and every year you get about the same again

and given all the other costs of shooting a pistol powder is not a leading factor.

I am pretty sure most here can afford to get twice that if there was a reason....

manufacturers, suppliers and etc know how much we use in a year.month,week,day.

so that is our supply chain/pipe line.

here we go...

what happens if everyone decided they need two years of powder?

... it gets hard to find for about 9 months.

that is Just from hoarder actions, no scalpers yet.

three months after the 'double' decision is made,

all of six month's supply is gone. and we are only at three month into the year....

the next three month sees the rest of the year's supply purchased.

size of the chain makes a difference.

so there is effectively no powder for the rest of the year.

and you can add the time it takes to refill the supply chain

which I am guessing is about the same three months it took to empty.

.... this effect does snowball.

the guys who found none? they will want three years when they get a supply....

yes our supply line is fragile.

miranda

[deerassassin22]

What defines a "hoarder"???

[Steve RA]

As I've known a few - not in the firearms area - someone who collects things and rarely, if ever, uses them.

[Miranda]

be careful letting other 'define' things for you...

I think the useable lifetime of powder may be in the definition of hoarding powder.

If it has a shelf-life of 10 years and you have all you will use in those 10 years

then you are not hoarding...

not being willing to sell at any price what can not be used before it goes bad....

is the place where hoarding is a problem.

I would like a little more powder, for variety.

another year from now I may be a little nervous if I haven't found some by then.

ETA:

I have to state the in my previous post I used the term hoarder

as anyone buying more than a year's supply for lack of

a better word for a two-year-powder-sponge. (which I was last year)

miranda

Edited April 5, 2014 by Miranda

[alma]

Miranda,

Your previous post had some sound logic but reminded me of a story problem on from a math test. I love it!

[ghost21]

Ironic sentence is ironic.

The point is that as you said this has all been a result of panic buying. There has been no law passed or action taken by a government agency that has put us where we are today. We did this to ourselves.

Not saying lawmakers have not tried. That has been a market force in the equation to be sure.

AMEN !!!

[Lifeislarge]

The problem with your theory Miranda is that my needs are not static. I don't know what I will be shooting a year from now, or two years from now, or three years from now. What if I suddenly decide I want to become a GM and shoot 1500 live rounds a month? Right now I have enough supplies on hand minus bullets to load approximately 10,000 rounds. Here in Florida we shoot matches year round. Three matches a month times, on the low side, 30 weeks. An average of 150 rounds per match equals 4500 rounds. So theoretically I have two years supply of match ammo in stock. That doesn't count for any practice rounds. My needs may shift accordingly. Add a couple of majors in or maybe I slow things down and find a different hobby who knows? I just broke into my 10,000 primer comfort zone which I keep on the shelf and will be going out to buy some more shortly. It's kind of like losing our Second Amendment rights, you will only miss them when they're gone, which is why I choose to have enough on hand just in case. If I could afford a lifetime supply of ammo components I would definitely own them today.

Then again, I own two of the exact same TAG watches because they are my favorite watch but out of production and I cannot fathom not wearing one or being unable to replace it if it was lost or damaged beyond repair. I would hoard all of my favorite things if I could because, America...

Edited April 7, 2014 by Lifeislarge

[SonOfSpartans]

The problem with your theory Miranda is that my needs are not static. I don't know what I will be shooting a year from now, or two years from now, or three years from now. What if I suddenly decide I want to become a GM and shoot 1500 live rounds a month? Right now I have enough supplies on hand minus bullets to load approximately 10,000 rounds. Here in Florida we shoot matches year round. Three matches a month times, on the low side, 30 weeks. An average of 150 rounds per match equals 4500 rounds. So theoretically I have two years supply of match ammo in stock. That doesn't count for any practice rounds. My needs may shift accordingly. Add a couple of majors in or maybe I slow things down and find a different hobby who knows? I just broke into my 10,000 primer comfort zone which I keep on the shelf and will be going out to buy some more shortly. It's kind of like losing our Second Amendment rights, you will only miss them when they're gone, which is why I choose to have enough on hand just in case. If I could afford a lifetime supply of ammo components I would definitely own them today.

Then again, I own two of the exact same TAG watches because they are my favorite watch but out of production and I cannot fathom not wearing one or being unable to replace it if it was lost or damaged beyond repair. I would hoard all of my favorite things if I could.

You just needed to end that post with.......

Because, America

[ghost21]

The gov't isn't smart enough to cause this type of shortage.

We did it ...

But anti 2nd Amendment types coming to power were most certainly the catalyst for this event AND the previous ones.

Just a heads-up! this thread is on the verge of being closed and locked!

I started a thread with the same content, And before I knew it and it was a very civil discussion, The thread was locked!

Just my 2cents

Why would they close it.

that was my question, And I never got an answer

[Miranda]

Hi lifeislarge,

I have news for you.... how supply chains are broken is not considered theory.

I am also sad to say I did not invent the explaination.

I tried to use what is in this context to explain it.

I am gonna reach for some of that flag you are waving. please pass the apple pie.

I want to have enough 'fixins' at home to get dinner on the table too.

and I believe the best way to do that is to make sure I have all I can afford.

(... or can find, after you have been in my local reloading store)

Believe me, your concerns are not far from mine.

I am sure a lot of others share the opinion for no other reason than

supplies are hard to find.

Our government has not acted in any real way. for or agin.

Yet somehow...

We (you and I) both agree that a little more primer, powder, and lead would be nice...

You really think there are not a whole lot of people in total agreement?

You may well believe you don't know what you will be using next year or so.

There are people who make very good guesses (they get paid to make good guesses)

about how much we all, and I mean ALL, use in a period of time.

:-) they may have missed the guess for this year.

Those manufacturers do not make extra. There is no profit in having 'extra' in inventory.

There is even less profit in having extra capacity to make more. so they can't raise

production by much to meet extra demand. I have little doubt demand would be met if it was easy.

while I think I have enough ammo in my house to shoot about two years of dinners,

a little bit more would be nice.

and that leads to stressed supply chains....

miranda

[Lifeislarge]

Supply also has to understand that when frustration overcomes joy, people like me say f*#k it and quit using the product all together. I don't worry about .22 availability or production anymore. I sold all my .22's months ago and have no plans to replace them. I am a lost consumer. If it gets to the same point where I can no longer shoot my competition pistols regularly enough to enjoy it, I might just say f*#k that too and go back to golf. There's no shortage of courses and balls.

[BeerBaron]

IBTL as well but from what I read recently Hodgdon for one, does not provide powder to ammo makers. They only make powder for reloading. A LOT of distributors are possibly filling back orders so when they get powder it is already spoken for?

We talked about this the other day at our match and we all long for the days when we were doing group buys and getting all the powder we wanted. While I don't think the government is buying it all up, it is certainly the current government that is creating the shortage. I for one will add to the problem when I get the chance. The first time I see a powder I want I am going to buy as much as I can afford at the time. Same with 22 ammo. I used to buy a box or two at walmart like every other plinker. Next time I can get it by the case I will by as many as they will sell me. That may be awhile but that time will come.

My theory is this:

a lot of it is panic buying. some of it is profiteering. some of it is stockpiling for zombie apocalypse etc.

Pretty much any company that makes components (mainly primers and/or powder) but also makes complete ammo is going to be directing a large amount of their production into the complete ammo as I understand profit on finished ammo is much better than on components.

when it comes to Hodgdon powder in particular, you need to understand that many of their powders are made in Australia by ADI (see below for a table). There have been supply issues as well as increased local demand as people here increase the levels of powder they want to hold too. Other powder brands like VV (made in finland) are also not made in the US so may have their own domestic supply demand, or military and LEO demands to meet.

AS30N=Clays

AP50N = (No Hodgdon)

AS50N = International

AP70N = Universal

AP100 = (No Hodgdon)

AR2205 = H4227

AR2207 = H4198

AR2219 = H322

Bench Mark1 = (No Hodgdon)

Bench Mark2 = BenchMark AR2206 = (No Hodgdon)

AR2206H = H4895

AR2208 = Varget

AR2209 = H4350

AR2213SC = H4831

AR2217 = H1000

AR2225 = Retumbo

AR2218 = H50BMG

[MrRick]

This seems to pop up in every reloading related forum I visit and I haven't seen anyone take into consideration a few things.

This what I believe is happening. When the ammo shortage came about, people turn into reloading. So you have new reloaders daily still to this day.

During the ammo shortage, new small business started reloading to resale and this still happening. These new businesses are ordering powder by the barrels.

Then you have the hoarders.

This is just like 22lr. When ammo prices were high, people started shooting more 22lr. Then supply and demand caught up and started becoming hard to get. The 22 lr hoarders were made. Now there is no 22lr on the shelves and people are buying it like crazy.

I don't think it is a big government conspiracy, or there would be no 50 BMG components either.

Edited May 6, 2014 by MrRick

[ghost21]

Supply also has to understand that when frustration overcomes joy, people like me say f*#k it and quit using the product all together. I don't worry about .22 availability or production anymore. I sold all my .22's months ago and have no plans to replace them. I am a lost consumer. If it gets to the same point where I can no longer shoot my competition pistols regularly enough to enjoy it, I might just say f*#k that too and go back to golf. There's no shortage of courses and balls.

Lifeislarge,

I understand your frustration ! But if everyone had the same thoughts and ideas as yours about selling all your guns, Then the Government has WON !

I mean supply has to come back, even if it takes a while ,But I for one am not giving up my firearms. I don't shoot as much as I use to, But I do have enough ammo! And powder, primers and bullets to , If need be to put food on the table and take care of anyone or thing that would threaten my family. And my way of life !!!!

Granted, I'm not one of those that when I'm in Wal-Mart. And yes my local Wal-Mart has ammo and 22s. When I'm at the sporting good counter, I don't buy, buy. I look at it this way I have 22s, The next guy in line may need to buy them to teach his son/daughter to shoot.

Jeff

[Lifeislarge]

Supply also has to understand that when frustration overcomes joy, people like me say f*#k it and quit using the product all together. I don't worry about .22 availability or production anymore. I sold all my .22's months ago and have no plans to replace them. I am a lost consumer. If it gets to the same point where I can no longer shoot my competition pistols regularly enough to enjoy it, I might just say f*#k that too and go back to golf. There's no shortage of courses and balls.

Lifeislarge,

I understand your frustration ! But if everyone had the same thoughts and ideas as yours about selling all your guns, Then the Government has WON !

I mean supply has to come back, even if it takes a while ,But I for one am not giving up my firearms. I don't shoot as much as I use to, But I do have enough ammo! And powder, primers and bullets to , If need be to put food on the table and take care of anyone or thing that would threaten my family. And my way of life !!!!

Granted, I'm not one of those that when I'm in Wal-Mart. And yes my local Wal-Mart has ammo and 22s. When I'm at the sporting good counter, I don't buy, buy. I look at it this way I have 22s, The next guy in line may need to buy them to teach his son/daughter to shoot.

Jeff

Don't get me wrong, I'll always keep what's necessary for protection and or preservation. It's the recreational shooting and games I can live without if it comes down to it.

[szhttm]

Just curious, but what about a simple business related theory here:

* More demand due to whatever the reason is (I.E.: more reloaders than before, more demand on factory ammo, reloaders keeping higher amount of stock on hand than before, etc...)

From a business perspective, I think the companies are going to wait to see if the higher demand continues, is forecasted to continue for an extended period of time, or continue into the foreseeable future. Once the company's executives/owners are satisfied that the demand will continue, then and only then will they allocate company capital to expand production beyond what they are capable of producing today. They may/will need to invest capital for more space, more hardware, more labor, temporary projects to setup the additional production/training, etc.. I think they would not be willing to do this unless their would be a return on their investment for the foreseeable future. Maybe they are thinking that demand will decrease soon...

Also to consider is are the additional raw materials available to these companies should they decide to increase their production capabilities beyond what they are able to produce today. If not, then it would not be feasible to invest into higher production capabilities.

So are these companies investing to produce more, are they waiting to see if demand continues as it is now, or are they maybe thinking demand will slow down?

Good Luck And Be Safe!!!

Edited May 7, 2014 by szhttm

[Snuffy671]

IBTL!

Definitely a massive government conspiracy to keep all of the hand loaders unarmed as a form of gun control... Really? Did you just imply that?

Guess you are not familiar with the FAR and requirements for transparency in Government purchases. Plus is NSA can't keep it's Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information out of the news then how could a conspiracy like this escape leaks from the Powder Industry or from inside the Government. Having worked for many years in Washington I can say with certainty that the Government (Congress aside) is not the underhanded, privacy insensitive, overlord that most today seem to make it out to be. The overwhelming majority of Government employees share your values for freedom and are good people trying to do their best to serve this country and its people. Not sure why that is so hard to believe. Maybe listen to Infowars a bit less.

[jmorris]

I live near some commercial reloaders and they never lacked for powder to load their ammo. It seems the hobbyist is the one getting the big squeeze.

Or primers or bullets. The best fisherman protect their "honey holes".

[Dkrad1935]

Hi lifeislarge,

I have news for you.... how supply chains are broken is not considered theory.

I am also sad to say I did not invent the explaination.

I tried to use what is in this context to explain it.

I am gonna reach for some of that flag you are waving. please pass the apple pie.

I want to have enough 'fixins' at home to get dinner on the table too.

and I believe the best way to do that is to make sure I have all I can afford.

(... or can find, after you have been in my local reloading store)

Believe me, your concerns are not far from mine.

I am sure a lot of others share the opinion for no other reason than

supplies are hard to find.

Our government has not acted in any real way. for or agin.

Yet somehow...

We (you and I) both agree that a little more primer, powder, and lead would be nice...

You really think there are not a whole lot of people in total agreement?

You may well believe you don't know what you will be using next year or so.

There are people who make very good guesses (they get paid to make good guesses)

about how much we all, and I mean ALL, use in a period of time.

:-) they may have missed the guess for this year.

Those manufacturers do not make extra. There is no profit in having 'extra' in inventory.

There is even less profit in having extra capacity to make more. so they can't raise

production by much to meet extra demand. I have little doubt demand would be met if it was easy.

while I think I have enough ammo in my house to shoot about two years of dinners,

a little bit more would be nice.

and that leads to stressed supply chains....

miranda

I used to do some forecasting for a very very large retailer. And I can tell you that no one can predict what life is large will shoot next year, but they don't try.

I can't forecast one persons needs, but I can sure as hell forecast a large group of peoples needs.

The larger the group or the higher the node in the supply chain, the more accurate my forecast becomes.

But what has happened in something called the bullwhip. The bullwhip gets bigger and bigger the farther up the supply chain it goes.

Go online and search for the MIT beer game. It's an awesome example and it isn't a drinking game.

As much as many hate to admit - subsidies to farmers are a good thing. Can u imagine scarcity of grain like we have seen with powder. Without subsidies, the supply chain for food would be chaos. Even with subsidies you see some swings in suppli and prices.

When Obama was about to get elected, retailers posted huge sales increases in sales. They were having high level executive meetings very frequently to get more supplies. They wanted to capture every available dollar.

That's the nature of a corporation. The manufacturers began allocating supplies. So , the largest buyer (Walmart) didn't get everything. They got an allocation. That ensured that cabellas or mom and pops got some product. No one had as much as they wanted.

This is like a classic bullwhip with some "other" influencing factors that haven't necessarily changed consumption but have changes demand. This is why manufacturers have been slow to invest capital.

Anyway - I also worked for gov and I agree wih another poster. The government couldn't orchestrate something this complicated or keep it secret if they had. Someone would write a book the second they got insulted or didn't get a pay raise.

[tires2burn]

Time to switch to black powder I guess.

[ghost21]

Time to switch to black powder I guess.

Got it covered. Ruger Old Army cap & ball revolver. enough soft lead to mold thousands of bullets(round ball and conical) Just stocked up on Pyrodex "P" And percussion caps . I'm set