Wanna-b-speedy (part 3)

[Flexmoney]

Shred and a few others talk about it fairly often. Other than that...I don't hear much from anybody but the big-dog Grand Masters.

Figuring hit factor into your game plan:

For those new to the game, hit factor = points per second. If you shoot 78 points on a stage, in 12.5 seconds...that works out to a hit factor(hf) of 6.24 (78/12.5 = 6.24)

You've earned/averaged 6.24 points for every second you were shooting.

Shred often states this a bit different. Using the same data, you can figure how much time each point is worth. Just divide 1(point) by the hit factor. In the case above (1 / 6.24 = .160), each point takes 0.16 seconds. (Realize that we are usually shooting for 5pts. on each shoot.)

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Crap...out of time for now. I'll come back later with more. Feel free to chime in.

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[Matthew_Mink]

I'll throw in a twist. When is balls to the wall speed more important than points? If you want to be speedy, then there is a point where the points don't matter. We've all seen it at a major match, and it usually happens. Somebody will win a stage with a miss. That is the ultimate height of wanna-be-speedy, but for that one time, it worked.

[PhilTerry]

As a general rule I use, as an indicator, a hit factor of 10 - if the stage high hit factor is 10 or over speed rules.

On the other end of the scale if the high hit factor is 5 or below accuracy is all-important.

When I get to a big match one of the things I try to check on is how the big dogs have scored on the stages and use that as the high hit factor gage.

[Flexmoney]

Matt,

I was hoping/planning on getting to that, but I'll go ahead and respond. With a miss...you are down 15 points, just on that one target.

If you are shooting a 15hf stage...you have (up to*) one second to make up that miss. If you can't do it in one second...it's not not worth doing. (Pretty much...unless you have left a position, need a standing reload, or have to wait for a real slow mover...even with a 15hf stage...there is time to make up the shot, even with a transition back to the target.)

On a 7.5hf stage, you would have (up to*) two seconds to make up the mike. (5hf give you 3 seconds, a 10hf give 1.5 second to make up a mike)

A shooter needs to take a look at the stage...and perhaps their past hit factors...and figure out what kind of hit factors he/she can realistically expect.

All this is variable.

* - That assumes you make it up with an Alpha

[TDean]

Excellent post Flex!

The way you explained clears a few cobbwebs, thanks.

I've just gone by the rule of 8 HF being neutral. If it's lower, speed takes a back seat to Alphas. If it's a higher HF, then you can turn up the speed dial a little.

Now someone's going to ask how do you determine the HF of a certain stage.

[Flexmoney]

Now someone's going to ask how do you determine the HF of a certain stage.

That gets tough.

For one...I think we just need to start to pay closer attention...be more aware of what kind of hit factors we actually get on various types of stages. If we start reviewing...maybe even logging/tracking...our stages with reagards to the hit factor, then that would clue us in real fast (I think). We could even print/sketch the stages...and add in post-stage notes. (I kinda take notes on my score sheets at major matches anyway.)

We ought to know ourselves well enough to figure out our splits, transitions, and a rough time for movement and such. I know that the Burner predicts his time and points before running a stage (as seen in his videos).

[Flexmoney]

Looking at it Shred's way is where we can really see something.

With the "each point is worth xx seconds" way of looking at it, we can find a break-even time.

In the example I stated in the first post, we had a 6.24hf for the stage. Dividing that into 1pt., we see that, for this hit factor, a point is worth 0.16 seconds.

The question is...what does that mean?

What it means is that (with the hit factor stated) our break-even time is 0.16 seconds. That is the amount of time we can use to get an extra point...and still be better off in the final stage results.

We can use the break-even time to make up a Charlie...if we can do it faster than the break-even time. Or...a much easier option...we cn use the break-even time to align ourselves in the center of the Alpha on the transition onto the target...getting it right from the start.

Now, a lot of shooters aren't going to be able to make-up a Charlie in 0.16 seconds. But, that is likely plenty of extra time to ensure they are lined up in the center of the Alpha...for there transition in and for their split.

But...lets keep the same hf and break-even time for each point. Now lets say the shooter tagged a Delta. That is 3pts. down for Major and 4pts. for Minor. In this case, that means 0.48 seconds for Major(down 3 x 0.16 = 0.48), and 0.64 seconds for Minor (down 4 x 0.16 = 0.64). Now that is a lot of time any way you look at it.

[Flexmoney]

I can't shake one of Erik Warren's old posts...it just sticks with me(wonder why?). I'm likely not quoting him right, but he said something along these lines once, "...I don't have time to shoot an Alpha".

It is important to note that Erik was talking of shooting 18 Alphas out of 20. The two his put out of the A-zone were snake-eye Charlie hits. He was struggling on transitioning to the Alpha on that one target (been there myself, same problem).

In Erik's example he dropped two points...and he dropped them because of the transition. I don't know what kind of hit factor he was shooting, but lets stick with the 6.24hf we have been using so far.

Assuming the 6.24hf makes each point's break-even time .016 seconds. Since Erik was down two points due to that one transition, he could have used up to 0.32 seconds (down 2 x 0.16 = 0.32) to find the Alpha on that transition to that target. Heck, Erik could transition to the head and hit the Alpha in 0.32 seconds!

[ErikW]

TDean, that's an interesting rule of thumb. Do you apply it only to field courses, or across the board to speed shoots and standards?

Flex, funny that you mention me and shred. Hanging out with benos back in November, shred asked him about factoring stages. He said he just shot Alphas as fast as he could. He has posted that here more than once.

You wrote in your original post,

Figuring hit factor into your game plan

Let's back up. Why figure a hit factor into your plan? When? I'm not being rhetorical, I want to know, because I almost never figure hit factors. Only when there are disappearing targets or a procedural penalty at stake in trade for a fast time.

Sometimes the benos plan works out for me and sometimes I get totally blindsided and blown out of the water. I'm wondering if I can avoid the surprises by figuring hit factor into my game plan.

[Nik Habicht]

I see one big hole in this theory ---- Having x amount of time to hit the A only works if you're capable of hitting the in x amount of time that day. In other words --- some days you're going to be able to run a stage all As or almost all As --- but you simply can't do it fast enough to win. And on those days you likely can't improve your score by turning up the speed --- 'cause you'll drop enough points to offset the speed advantage.

[Flexmoney]

I think the "shoot alphas as fast as you can" ends up being the best game plan...by far.

And...with the big-dogs, they know that. More importantly, they trust that.

Doing the math here should prove it. (which is really my goal)

The answer to when is before the stage. Before you start planning your dance.

I think what Shred has been trying to tell us is this:

Points equal time.

We hear that, but we don't fully let it soak in. It is easier to use a "rule of thumb', like shooting all alphas as fast as possible...or the under 8hf means accuarcy, over means speed. But, both of those ways don't fully address every situation.

But, let me back up a bit first...

Back to the points equals time.

We can make a rough chart (cheat sheet) with various hit factors to show how much time each point cost:

break-even times

2hf = 0.50 seconds per point

3hf = 0.33

4hf = 0.25

5hf = 0.20

6hf = 0.167

7hf = 0.143

8hf = 0.125

10hf =0.10

12hf =0.833

15hf =0.667

Now, you have to be able to figure out what hf you are likely to shoot. Then you know that every point down is traded for the amount of time given in the chart.

If, for example, you shot a 5hf on a stage, and you shot it down 6pts., you could have taken an extra 1.20 seconds to shoot it clean...and still had the same hit factor. (down 6 x 0.20 = 1.20 seconds)

Time = points

Here is where Brian's and TDeans stategies could come up wanting (just barely though, they are good strategies...this is mostly theory I am talking). They both apply a FIXED strategy to the entire stage. But the stage, whether it be a high hit factor stage or a low hit factor stage, will have targets of varying degrees of difficulty. And, each shooter will have different abilities.

Brian's "hit all alphas as fast as he can" will most certainly be the smart way to go. But, there may be a target that Brain can make an alpha on within his break-even time, and I might not be able to make an alpha on that target within my break-even time. So, there might be a situation where it would be better for me to take a Charlie. And, that is on a target by target basis...according to it's difficulty and my ability.

(Wow...that sounds like a lot of BS. I am up waaay past sleep-time.)

Anyway...here is the homework. Go find a stage you shot in your match results. See what hf you shot. Divide that number into 1 (or just use the chart as a guide). Now, that gives you how much time each point was worth. Multiply that by your points down (include penalties). The result, in seconds, is how much time you could have taken to shoot clean, and still come out even...with the same hf for the stage.

I think that if you do this in practice (where you can record your splits and transition), you will find that you could apply a lot of that time to shooting the Alphas...and still come out waaay ahead.

With TDean's 8hf guideline...he could take an EXTRA 0.125 seconds to ensure that what would be a Charlie makes it to the Alpha. That means an 0.18 split that was a Charlie...he could take upto 0.325 to get the Alpha and still be ahead.

Our game is more about accuarcy than most people think (when it comes to the shooting ).

[Brazos Custom]

Flex,

I think it is more important when you have a mix of hard and easy targets in a stage. To give an example let's say you have a stage where you have lots of hard cover and no shoots and they make you do something at the start that is going to waste a lot of time (getting up from a bed, loading the gun, etc) then at the send of the stage you have a set of 4 targets at 3 yds. Total hit factor for the stage is 5 or 6 but on that set of targets it is going to be 15 plus. If you shoot them all at max speed you might run one or two c's or even a D. If you slow down just a little you can run all A's. That is one place where knowing the total hit factor can help.

The other place I like to know the hit factor is for swingers or any target that has a cycle time. I figure out what the cycle time is worth in points. Then if I take two shots on the swinger and am not sure on one of them I know how much it is going to cost me to make up a shot. If the hit factor on a stage is 10 and a swinger takes 1.5 seconds to reappear (fairly common setup) then if you have a miss the best you are going to do is break even if you wait. On a setup like this I will make sure I take two good shots and then leave hoping for the best.

[old shooter]

Having just rejoined the shooting community, I am still having a bit of trouble making all of this work. I have been practicing the last month and a half with a timer and different match setups. I was truly surprised when I started using a calculator and figuring HF on each run. I sometimes just knew that my last run was the best, but after doing the math, it in fact was not. I am hoping that armed with the theory of HF, this will come easier with match experience. I now always figure time, points, HF when practicing.

Mike

[Ron Ankeny]

I went through an entire season of figuring out stages in detail, (shooting order, etc.) and I even predicted hit factors. I suppose it was a cool learning experience, but I don't even concern myself with the math anymore. I took Brian's advice and I just shoot Alpha's as fast as I can.

It's pretty simple. On the hoser stages the hit factors are high as a kite so I just program myself to shoot without lingering. The targets are generally closer so I tend to turn my visual acceptability down.

On the longer field courses the hit factors will be lower so I remember to shoot as efficiently as possible while keeping my technique clean.

Then there is the matter of high hit factor arrays embedded (lack of a better word) in a low hit factor field course. We have all seen 15 hit factor clumps of targets smack in the middle of a 6 hit factor field course. Heck, I have even seen those little clumps spread out all over the place. A 10 hit factor clump over here, a 12 hit factor clump over there, etc. The overall hit factor might be 5.5 based solely on distance between arrays. That type of course is different than a 5.5 hf course containing long and/or tight shots with a lot of white. How do you handle those situations? Maybe the best plan is to just shoot A's as fast as you can.

[EricW]

Damn! This is one of the best threads in ages...

Great explanation Bob L. Thanks!

And thanks to Flex for starting this thread.

[shred]

Brian, Erik and I discussed the value of knowing the HF before you shoot over beer at Area 2. BE's take is that HF is an "is what it is" thing, given a goal of "shoot A's as fast as possible". I agree with that, but also think HF estimation is a good tool in itself (note that the better you get at the goal of "A's as fast as possible", the less you need to worry about HF)

In general, knowing approximately what a point is 'worth' in seconds is extremely valuable for any shooter wanting to know "why should I shoot 90% of the points?"

Where I think knowing HF on a particular stage is important is on the extremes and wierd stuff. It's also good for knowing if you should make something up or not (see the "break-even" discussion above)

If you come to an array of in-your-face targets after a bunch of 50-yard targets on a 2 HF stage, you'd darn well better get all A's on those in-your-facers. If you don't, it costs you 1/2 second per point dropped. (Note to stage designers-- these sorts of things trip up shooters if you like that sort of thing).

HF estimation can also tell you if doing something one way or another is 'worth it'. Found a great way to shoot a COF, except you're shooting Limited-10 and you need 12 rounds from the last position? Crank out a HF and see if the reload is worth doing. Thinking about blowing off a prop or disappearing target? Find out how much time those missing points and PE's cost and see if it makes sense.

[ErikW]

My shooting personality doesn't allow much room for changing the way I shoot a stage. I'm always trying to go 1-for-1 on steel and two get 2 As on each paper. I'm always trying to shoot fast splits and transitions and to get in and out of positions quickly. Trying to dial in more speed results in rushing. There isn't much room for deviation from my shooting style.

[Flexmoney]

Again...I'm not trying to displace the "shoot all alphas as fast as possible" plan, I'm trying to prove it...with the raw math.

By figuring how much time each point is worth, you know how much EXTRA time you have to ensure the Alpha.

On a fairly fast stage, a 10hf stage, each point is worth 0.10 seconds.

Think about what that means. You can transition to a target in 0.35 with a Charlie, or you could transition with the EXTRA 0.10 for an Alpha in 0.45. That is a HUGE amount of extra time.

And, we have mostly been talking about Charlies at Major power factor...one point down. Lets say you hit the Delta on that 10hf stage. You are now down 3pts. and each point on that 10hf stage is worth 0.10 seconds. So, you could have used an EXTRA 0.30 seonds to have put the Delta into the A-zone. If you did it faster than that (and just about everybody in the world would, especially somebody that shoots 10 hit factors)...if you shoot the alpha faster than the break-even time, then you are ahead.

This should also show that:

• You have enough EXTRA time to find the center of the Alpha, and still be ahead of your break-even time.
  
• Shooting a Delta hit at Major power factor is unexceptable.
  
• Shooting a Charlie hit at Minor is a nogo.
  
• Shhoting all Alphas as fast as possible is a really great strategy.
  
• You really can't miss fast enough to win (unless everybody else is way behind you).
  
• Shoot slow...do everything else fast.
  
• Our game is about movement. And if you don't hit the Alpha...you have to move that much faster to keep up with the shooter that did.
  
• Points = Time.
  

[Flexmoney]

Then there is the matter of high hit factor arrays embedded (lack of a better word) in a low hit factor field course. We have all seen 15 hit factor clumps of targets smack in the middle of a 6 hit factor field course. Heck, I have even seen those little clumps spread out all over the place. A 10 hit factor clump over here, a 12 hit factor clump over there, etc. The overall hit factor might be 5.5 based solely on distance between arrays. That type of course is different than a 5.5 hf course containing long and/or tight shots with a lot of white. How do you handle those situations? Maybe the best plan is to just shoot A's as fast as you can.

If you come to an array of in-your-face targets after a bunch of 50-yard targets on a 2 HF stage, you'd darn well better get all A's on those in-your-facers. If you don't, it costs you 1/2 second per point dropped. (Note to stage designers-- these sorts of things trip up shooters if you like that sort of thing).

I'll state it another way...

If you are shooting a 5.5hf stage, and there are "embedded arrays" that are more along the lines of 12hf...you damn well better hit the center of the freakin' target on those close hoser shots.

To not do so is like having your buddy put on his best work boot and letting him kick you square in the nuts.

Do the math. Every point on the stage is as important as every other. If you don't shoot the ducks in the barrel (the hoser Alphas), then you have given up the easy points. Points = Time.

In the 5.5hf stage, each point is worth 0.18 seconds (1/5 = 0.18). For each point down, you could have used up to 0.18 seconds and been ahead. Don't waste that time/point missing the Alpha on the hoser array. The hoser array is easy to hit the Alphas on. If you drop points on a stage...make damn sure they are on the tough targets...not the ducks.

[Brazos Custom]

Flex,

One problem with your theory, it is not just the extra time on the one charlie that you shot. When you start the stage you don't know where that charlie is going to be. To test your theory shoot an el pres and go at a speed that you know you will get all A's - absolutely no points dropped no matter what. Then shoot the same stage concentrating on getting A hits but know that it is ok to get an occasional C (95% of points). I will just about guarantee that if you do this you will shoot higher hit factors dropping the points because you have to slow down too much to make sure you hit all A's. To make sure you get all A's you have to slow down on every shot. Shoot all alphas is fine except it is one of the hardest things to learn in IPSC shooting and it is the first thing to go in a match or under pressure. Knowing how fast to go on each shot on each target, from each position, distance, etc. takes constant management of a multitude of constantly changing factors and small mistakes can cost you big points.

[steve223]

Very cool thread, Im in the shoot A,s as fast as you can camp, But now i can see were figuring hfs could help.

Steve

[ORCA]

Excellent thread! I like your example Bob. It's not the one shot you shot a little slower, it's the 12 you shot slower.

Now how do you apply this new hit factor knowledge to different classes. Example a 10 HF stage for a Gm when shot by a D class shooter? Multiply by thier classification % or figure out what thier personal HF would be?

[Ron Ankeny]

It's hard to explain, but for me shooting with the intent of getting all A's is a lot different than taking the steps required to insure all A's.

I hate to beat a dead horse, but for my shooting style, shooting with the intent of getting all A's as quickly as possible (and knowing it probably won't happen) seems to work across the board.

[benos]

It's easy to over think this stuff.

I definitely agree with Bob's hit factor/swinger decision.

On closer, easier targets, you can't not shoot A's fast enough to win.

On harder targets, if you don't at least shoot for A's, the points you do end up with are likely to be crap.

Hence, always shoot for A's. Unless, of course, there's a compelling reason not to on the occasional target.

be

[Brazos Custom]

Shoot for A's is a good way to look at it, and accept that you might get a few C's along the way.

Another interesting point that comes into it came up at Area 2. On one stage you had to pick up a pipe (stick of dynamite) and drop it into a large port about 10 yds away on the way to the next bank of targets. TGO and I were arguing about whether to just skip it and take the 10 point procedural. We figured the stage would factor around 10 plus - all close hoser targets... My idea was to skip it beacuse I thought it would take about 1 extra second to do it making it a wash and if I did not do it there was one less thing to go wrong. Rob's point was that if you don't do it there are less points available on the stage and if you make a mistake (miss, no shoot, jam, drop a lot of points) you will be penalized more. The jist of it was I was trying to make it less risky which it was in one way but it became even more important to shoot good points on the stage.