RePete Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 The ONLY thing to remember is that the odds are ALWAYS in the house favour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben b. Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 CSEMARTIN, I think you found thru research and testing, very quickly and cheaply, something that has financially hurt/broken a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el pres Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 If you want to win big at gambling, Open a Casino !!! Well, unless ofcoarse you are on the MIT team ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racerba Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Well, unless ofcoarse you are on the MIT team ??? And they still got caught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shred Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 If you ever get a chance to read the large tome that is "Scarne on Gambling" (excellent resource), there's a section in there on the Martingale "double-up" systems, including some discussion of one case where it did work on a roulette wheel-- if you can get the house to raise the upper limit or lower the lower one enough that there are more available 'steps'... but I think they're wise to that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKSNIPER Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Larry hit it right when he said "Casinos are in business to MAKE money." Their objective is to seperate you from your money as quickly as possible while giving you the illusion that it was fun so you will want to come back and do it again. If it was that easy to get rich many people before all of us would have figured it out and done it. JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badchad Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 If you ever get a chance to read the large tome that is "Scarne on Gambling" (excellent resource), there's a section in there on the Martingale "double-up" systems, including some discussion of one case where it did work on a roulette wheel-- if you can get the house to raise the upper limit or lower the lower one enough that there are more available 'steps'... but I think they're wise to that now. Regardless of the table limit the Martingale system still won’t “work.” It only seems like it does for short time periods, then you end up having to bet ridiculous amounts of money to win a very small original bet. In order to win a significant amount of money you have to play for a long time, all but guaranteeing a bad streak that will break you. Regardless of any short term gains your expected return on every bet is negative. It’s a losing system period. I have Scarne’s book and I just looked up what he said about the Martingale system and he was a bit self contradictory, which is unlike him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt Griffin Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 The final nail in the coffin is this: Casinos are a privelege, not a right. If you ever do manage to find a way to beat them like the MIT crew or other card counters, they simply throw you out before you can do any real damage. And, FWIW, craps is still the best odds in the casino, depending on the allowed even odds wager vs. the minimum. A perfect blackjack system is still grinding more than a percent. H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisa006 Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 25 yrs ago I went to school to card count and than spent 6 months practicing before going to a casino. I went to Vegas because A.C. didn't have single deck. It was an education and hard work. I would play at 6 in the morning so I could find a table with no other players. You cannot make a mistake in the count because you are working on a very small percentage. Even when it is in your favor you can lose just as the casino does once in a while. Eventially the odds work out but it isn't a get rich fast way to go unless you go with a team and a big enough bank roll. I payed for 2 multi week stays with my winnings and learned alot about life and hustles and cons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el pres Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Well, unless ofcoarse you are on the MIT team ??? And they still got caught. Because as with all gamblers, they got greedy and the odds ran out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Boudrie Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 The final nail in the coffin is this: Casinos are a privelege, not a right. If you ever do manage to find a way to beat them like the MIT crew or other card counters, they simply throw you out before you can do any real damage. True NV; less so in NJ (as long as you are following all the rules). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shred Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 If you ever get a chance to read the large tome that is "Scarne on Gambling" (excellent resource), there's a section in there on the Martingale "double-up" systems, including some discussion of one case where it did work on a roulette wheel-- if you can get the house to raise the upper limit or lower the lower one enough that there are more available 'steps'... but I think they're wise to that now. Regardless of the table limit the Martingale system still won’t “work.” It only seems like it does for short time periods, then you end up having to bet ridiculous amounts of money to win a very small original bet. In order to win a significant amount of money you have to play for a long time, all but guaranteeing a bad streak that will break you. Regardless of any short term gains your expected return on every bet is negative. It’s a losing system period. I have Scarne’s book and I just looked up what he said about the Martingale system and he was a bit self contradictory, which is unlike him. I think the trick was with the lifted limits, it would 'work' statistically enough times that it turned into a winner for that player-- he had more chances to catch up before the limits caught him-- if there were no limits and you had an unlimited bankroll, the Martingale would actually let you win-- keep playing until you get ahead, then quit. The table limits are what catch people before they can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashman627 Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 No system of betting came overcome a negative expectation.Proved in the 14th century and reproved about a gazillon times.Oh by the way,a casino post house limits for just the the type of martingale you are speaking of.Also how good is it to risk 10000 to win one betting unit.Keep yur job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ashman627 Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 Guys...Will NEVER work over any number of trials.There are pro poker players and pro sports bettors where there is no built in negative expectation .Are no Pro craps of roulette playes...NONE.I've been a dealer in Las Vegas for many years now and we always get a chuckle over the martingale playes."Martingale" refers to any betting system using doulbes halves etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
el pres Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 I've been a dealer in Las Vegas for many years now and we always get a chuckle over the martingale playes."Martingale" refers to any betting system using doulbes halves etc. That sums it up for me !! Horses mouth type of thing !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badchad Posted July 10, 2008 Share Posted July 10, 2008 I think the trick was with the lifted limits, it would 'work' statistically enough times that it turned into a winner for that player-- he had more chances to catch up before the limits caught him-- if there were no limits and you had an unlimited bankroll, the Martingale would actually let you win-- keep playing until you get ahead, then quit. The table limits are what catch people before they can do that. I high table limit still won’t work, and for all practical purposes, neither would no limit. Higher limits will give you more chances to win, but the end result is you will lose a lot more when the inevitable occurs. The only way for it to be a sure thing is if you have an infinite amount of cash, or at least more than the casino. You can get lucky if you quit early, but then it's just luck and you might as well be playing slot machines. Talking about guys who try to win a little bit and leave I heard one professional poker player describe those guys as eating like birds and shitting like elephants. The description always stuck with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockton Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 ...This is how it works. You start off by betting $10 dollars (which was the minimum bet at the Caesars roulette table) on red or black OR even or odd numbers. If you win, you just made $10 bucks. Since there are 38 numbers total (i.e. 1-36, a green 0 and a green 00), you have a 47.36% chance of winning. You also have a 52.64% chance of losing your money.Here is where it gets interesting. I thought about what would happen if you always bet $10 plus what you've lost. If you lost ten times in a row, you would lose $10,230 dollars so you would have to bet $10,240 bucks on the 11th bet. You just keep track of your losses and add $10 to each bet. Basically, you always have a 47.36% chance of winning your $10 dollars plus your losses. Here is the catch, the odds change depending on the maximum bet allowed at the table. The odds of losing 11 times in a row are 0.0269%. You have a 99.9731% chance of winning if the maximum bet at the table is roughly 10,000 dollars. If the maximum bet is $1,000 bucks, you still have a 99% chance of winning. If the maximum is $500 dollars, you'll have a 97% chance of winning. If the maximum bet allowed is $100 dollars, you would still have a 95% chance of winning. Obviously, not a student of statistics. The outcome of each spin is independent of the other spins, just like a coin toss. So, if you flipped a coin 9 times and it came up heads every time, that doesn't mean that a tails becomes more or less likely on the 10th. It's still 50%, assuming a fair coin. Same goes for roulette. Every spin has a 47.37% chance of a win, 52.63% chance of a loss. You need to understand the concept of expected payoff. Simply put, in this case you would multiply your bet times chance of favorable outcome and subtract your bet times chance of unfavorable outcome. This would be ($10 X .4737) - ($10 X .5263) = -$.53. The next spin with your method would have an expected payoff of ($10.53 X .4737) - ($10.53 X .5263) = -$.55 and so on. Bottom line, the house favor is 52.63% - 47.37% = 5.26%. This means that for every $1 you bet, expect to lose 5.26 cents. Roulettes is a pure chance game. The odds are always the same for the bet you described and there is no "strategy" that will skew the odds. Your computer models are flawed. I'll be glad to review them and show you the programming error, if you'd like. The concept you are trying to emulate is actually an old Blackjack strategy where you increase your bet with each loss, reset it on a win. The difference is that Blackjack hand odds DO change every time, they are not independent samples. A loss in BJ usually occurs when the dealer gets a small card when they have to hit and beat the player before they bust. A deck with many small cards favors the dealer, one with many large ones favors the player. As you lose due to small cards in play, the remaining deck becomes more concentrated with larger cards. So, by increasing your bet, your expected payoff increases as the deck skews. Once you win, you reset your bet in case the cards begin to stew the other way. Now, here is the other catch... a Blackjack for the player pays better than even money. Therefore, that also increases your expected payoff as the deck skews. BUT, this strategy requires a BIG bankroll, patience, and nerves of steel. It also, is not a sure thing. In fact, the odds are still slightly to the house. Now, if you can count cards, you can actually achieve a positive player edge. Many of the casinos now have mitigated these strategies by putting in electronic shoes that do ongoing, random shuffles. So, take whatever you where planning the budget for betting and buy shares of SPY and don't touch them no matter what for 20 years! SPY is an exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500. "Betting" on the 500 biggest companies in the most powerful nation on the planet OVER THE LONG RUN, has MUCH better odds than your roulette strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSEMARTIN Posted July 11, 2008 Author Share Posted July 11, 2008 Flex.....PLEASE CLOSE THIS THREAD. It's getting way too painful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE close it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexmoney Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Close it? Don't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GentlemanJim Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 I am rather enjoying this thread If I were to really gamble (not just play for fun) It seems one would choose a game that players skill would have an impact...not just the mechanical odds. Blackjack is the game I enjoy...Not good at it,but I like it. I did take about $80.00 and untold amounts of free drinks away from Deadwood Had a blast...played for several days...and got paid $80.00 to do it I would not expect the same outcome every time. Have to wonder what the ratio of winners to losers is Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
open17 Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Sorta on topic. I was watching some show on Vegas gambling and they were giving the house percentage. Craps and Blackjack (my game) were low, but according to the show the lowest house odds were on Video Poker. Something like .7% , or maybe it was less than that. Anybody agree with that? I've always considered all video games--slots, whatever, as a good way to kill time and help the casino pay for all the pretty lights. Bill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badchad Posted July 11, 2008 Share Posted July 11, 2008 Sorta on topic. I was watching some show on Vegas gambling and they were giving the housepercentage. Craps and Blackjack (my game) were low, but according to the show the lowest house odds were on Video Poker. Something like .7% , or maybe it was less than that. Anybody agree with that? I've always considered all video games--slots, whatever, as a good way to kill time and help the casino pay for all the pretty lights. Bill Often times the best odd are on games that run pretty fast. So even a small disadvantage will take a lot from you over time. Slower games like roulette, or more so, kino have worse odds but since each run takes longer you don’t notice it as much. I’m not familiar with video poker’s win percentage, but 0.7% would still grind you down fairly quick if you played a lot of hands per hour. As you noted with craps and blackjack it would probably depend on how you played. 0.7 percent might be right for those playing an ideal strategy but for the average player it might be more like 3-4%. IIRC that would put it in line with a typical blackjack game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Boudrie Posted July 12, 2008 Share Posted July 12, 2008 I was watching some show on Vegas gambling and they were giving the housepercentage. Craps and Blackjack (my game) were low, but according to the show the lowest house odds were on Video Poker. These games share one characteristic - the house edge is small with perfect play. Play imperfectly and that single digit house edge suddenly becomes a lot bigger. In the case of video machines with "play choices", the casinos have found that different locations and times of day do indeed get different house edges because of the differing styles of play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RePete Posted July 12, 2008 Share Posted July 12, 2008 Close it? Don't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alellis Posted July 12, 2008 Share Posted July 12, 2008 Guys I have a foolproof way to beat the roulette wheel and for no charge I will share it with you I have based this method on the teachings of my now deceased Uncle James. A man who made millions and spent comparatively little, while being very generous to friends and Family. Although his system was based around the National lottery it is easily modified to work just as well at the roulette table. Each week he would ask those who had bought lottery tickets if they won anything, Almost invariably their answer was no. With a big smile James would announce " I have " and after a suitable pause " I still have my buck in my pocket" I have followed this system for over thirty years now and it has served me well. al Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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