Statistically proven roulette strategy

[CSEMARTIN]

I came up with a roulette strategy after playing @ Caesars Palace in Vegas a few years ago.

Basically, it's very simple. I have tried it out on three computer models, and it has ALWAYS worked. I'd like to share it with everyone here, and get some input before trying it out in real life. Wild Rose Casinos just opened in Clinton, Iowa, and I'm thinking I'd like to go make an appearance.

This is how it works. You start off by betting $10 dollars (which was the minimum bet at the Caesars roulette table) on red or black OR even or odd numbers. If you win, you just made $10 bucks. Since there are 38 numbers total (i.e. 1-36, a green 0 and a green 00), you have a 47.36% chance of winning. You also have a 52.64% chance of losing your money.

Here is where it gets interesting. I thought about what would happen if you always bet $10 plus what you've lost. If you lost ten times in a row, you would lose $10,230 dollars so you would have to bet $10,240 bucks on the 11th bet.

You just keep track of your losses and add $10 to each bet. Basically, you always have a 47.36% chance of winning your $10 dollars plus your losses. Here is the catch, the odds change depending on the maximum bet allowed at the table.

The odds of losing 11 times in a row are 0.0269%. You have a 99.9731% chance of winning if the maximum bet at the table is roughly 10,000 dollars. If the maximum bet is $1,000 bucks, you still have a 99% chance of winning. If the maximum is $500 dollars, you'll have a 97% chance of winning. If the maximum bet allowed is $100 dollars, you would still have a 95% chance of winning.

Edited July 11, 2008 by CSEMARTIN

[EZ Bagger]

The odds (didnt' do the math on your exact numbers) on the 11th bet are exactly the same as on the first, and every other, individual bet.

[warpspeed]

sounds good, let us know how it works out ..........

[HoMiE]

If you're going to keep betting, better to play the 3rds. When you win, quit.

[JThompson]

PT Barnum mean anything to ya bro?

[CSEMARTIN]

The odds (didnt' do the math on your exact numbers) on the 11th bet are exactly the same as on the first, and every other, individual bet.

You are correct! The odds don't change with each spin. But they do change with successive spins.

If you flip a coin, it will be heads 50% of the time. The odds of getting two heads in a row is 25%. The odds of getting three heads in a row is (1/2) to the third power. In other words, it would be 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5= 12.5%. The odds of getting heads 11 times in a row would be 0.048%.

I did make a math error--just realized it. In my roulette strategy, the odds of losing that many times in a row would be (20/38) to the 11th power. I had used 18 in my numerator. The odds of losing that many times in a row would be 0.08%. The odds of winning would be 99.92%.

I'll have to redo the math for the other calculations (i.e., max bet of 1,000...500...and 100)

Edited July 10, 2008 by CSEMARTIN

[CSEMARTIN]

If you're going to keep betting, better to play the 3rds. When you win, quit.

I don't know what playing the 3rds means. Do you mean bet 1-12, 13-24, 25-36? What is the payout? I haven't run the numbers for that yet.

[CSEMARTIN]

PT Barnum mean anything to ya bro?

You're going to B-slap me aren't you?

[ben b.]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblers_Fallacy

http://www.fallacyfiles.org/gamblers.html

Edited July 10, 2008 by ben b.

[HoMiE]

If you're going to keep betting, better to play the 3rds. When you win, quit.

I don't know what playing the 3rds means. Do you mean bet 1-12, 13-24, 25-36? What is the payout? I haven't run the numbers for that yet.

Yeah, you can bet it that way or you can bet the column 1,4,7,..., 2,5,8,... or 3,6,9,.... it pays 2 to 1 instead of even money. If you are going to keep betting until you win it is called the Martingale system. In the long run, the house always wins.

EZ Bagger is right, each spin is the same odds, it is not dependant on the previous outcome or any future outcome. The 0 and 00 give the casino the advantage. And that's why they have limits on the outside bets if you keep trying to "double-up" or win your first bet back.

[badchad]

This method is statistically proven to make you go broke.

[CSEMARTIN]

From ben b.'s link--the Gambler's Fallacy: "This kind of logic would only work if we had to guess all the tosses' results before they are carried out."

That's what I've done.

Edited July 10, 2008 by CSEMARTIN

[DonT]

DejaVu...

About 25yrs. ago when I didn't have the appreciation for money that I do now, I was going to Vegas 4-6 times a year to play.

I had almost the same idea as you except I didn't add the $10.00 with each loss. I decided to double up on each loss betting on red.

When I lost the 7th in a row bet of $640.00, I was done. The dealer then told me he has seen it hit the same color 17 times in a row .

That was the trip that I discovered all the other things to do in Vegas.

I know people that play the odds and seem to do well. But IMHO you're either hot or you're not.

I wish you luck if you decide to go for it

[CSEMARTIN]

I went to roulette4fun.com and won $720 bucks just now.

ETA: Just for kicks, I switched the minimum from 10 to 100 dollars and so far I've won $1,600 dollars.

Edited July 10, 2008 by CSEMARTIN

[larry cazes]

Read the first few chapters of ANY college level statistics book. Then go back to your day job Casinos are in business to make money and they pick their games accordingly.

[racerba]

Here is where it gets interesting. I thought about what would happen if you always bet $10 plus what you've lost. If you lost ten times in a row, you would lose $10,230 dollars so you would have to bet $10,240 bucks on the 11th bet.

Here's the gist of it:

You are willing to bet $20,470 to win $10? More if you don't win on the 11th bet.

Edited July 10, 2008 by racerba

[badchad]

I went to roulette4fun.com and won $720 bucks just now.

ETA: Just for kicks, I switched the minimum from 10 to 100 dollars and so far I've won $1,600 dollars.

That's how it seems at first. Keep playing. You'll learn.

[-JQ-]

If you like gambling...I think you may be right for options play...

www.schaeffersresearch.com

I'm gambling everytime the buzzer goes off...:-)

[sfinney]

Table limits will keep this strategy from paying off, long run. How many times will you betting hundreds of dollars to win 10, hoping you never reach the limit?

I've seen guys drop $100 at a time on Black 6, 7 times in a row, thinking how many times can it be red in row, right? Evidently one more than you are willing / able to bet.

Ever see all the guys with notepads tracking play at Roulette, waiting for the "right moment" to bet? Casinos love those guys. Every spin has the same odds. And as pointed out already, due to the green numbers, its NOT even 50/50.

[Hoofy]

There is a reason they call this method "Double your Losses"

The only way to consistantly win at anything is to cheat.

[badchad]

Table limits will keep this strategy from paying off, long run.

Even without table limits the strategy will make you go broke. Google the "Martingale system." I had a science teacher tell me how great it was in the 7th grade. Fortunately I was too young to gamble for real, but with plastic roulette wheel I was able to test it out. Sure enough, it seems great for a while, and then it busts you for all you have. It’s statistically proven to do so. Casino owners love it.

[Graham Smith]

It's called "Double-Up, Catch-Up" and here is why it won't work.

1. The odds are never in your favor. Most roulette wheels have two greens (0 and 00) which go almost exclusively to the house. They reduce all 50-50 by a small margin.

2. The odds don't change no matter how many times the wheel spins. Each spin is an isolated event and is unaffected by all previous spins. If you toss a coin and it comes up heads 99 times, I would rather tend to think that there is something odd with the toss or the coin that causes this, but rest assured that any such string on a roulette wheel would result in the wheel being closed for inspection.

3. There is a "system" of escalating bets you can use in playing two columns that will make money - I worked out the system for fun and have run computer simulations that went for 1000's of spins. The main problem is that the growth curve is so slow as to be impractical. I would rather have a root canal.

4. The ultimate problem with all progressive betting schemes like this are that you have to have a large enough bankroll and the game has to have a large enough limit to allow you to continue to increase the bet until you win. And you would be amazed at how easily you can hit that limit.

5. Lastly, there are only two casino games where you have the chance to make money, Poker and Craps. In Poker, the money is coming from other players rather than the casino and skill is far more heavily weighted than chance. In Craps, there are ways to play that reduce the casino odds to a point lower than any other game - but the house will still win in the long run.

[sfinney]

Add Blackjack to that list of favorable games, as long as you have a system, stick to it religously, and can "count cards" to some degree... even if its just a rough feel for how many face cards have been played.... you can get pretty close to even odds with this game, if you are good.

[Rob Boudrie]

In Craps, there are ways to play that reduce the casino odds to a point lower than any other game - but the house will still win in the long run.

It's called the "Odds bet", basically a side bet on top of an additional bet that is paramutually neutral. The little "10:1 odds" or "100:1 odds" sign you see on the craps table is there to tell you how large the odds bet may be in relation to the main bet.

Roulette was originally designed so that the house edge for each bet was the same - all bets were calculated as if there were 36 numbers on the wheel, but there are actually 38 (the greens). Bet a color, 1:1; a column of 12 - 2:1; a block of 4 - 9:1 a single number - 36:1, etc. Subsequently, some casinos got greedy and downgraded all odds except the 1:1 and 1:2 so a block of four would pay 8:1 rather than 9:1; a a single number might pay 32:1 instead of 35:1, etc. The result is that the even money and block of 12 bets give the house the a smaller edge that the other bets on the wheel.

"count cards" to some degree

Casinos hate card counters, but love people who think they are card counters.

[CSEMARTIN]

You guys brought up some great points. You really got me thinking.

Is someone willing to bet 10,000 to win ten bucks? The more I think about it....the answer is no. If you get to that point, you still have a 52% chance you're going to loose your ass on that particular spin.

I tried the computer routlette some more. At first, the variance (from the gambler's fallacy link) was good at first. Then the loosing began. With a low max bid, it's a losing situation. On a table with no maximum bid and infinite supply of cash, you could spend all long time trying to win ten dollars. After some careful consideration, I've decided it's a waste of time.

I think I'll pass on this.