jakemaul Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Hi folks, I run the site azshooters.org. Part of the back end of that is collecting data on matches (actually, the classifiers within them) that are shot. I've been collecting for a while, and I thought it'd be cool to share some statistics... trends, etc. Without further ado, here are some things I consider "interesting": In February 2016, the most popular divisions are, in order: Limited - 35.4% Production - 28.5% Open - 16.9% Single Stack - 9.3% Limited-10 - 4.9% Carry Optics - 3.1% Revolver - 2.0% ... yep, in February, Carry Optics overtook Revolver. CO is getting steady growth, while Revolver is almost flat (very tiny growth). At present growth, Carry Optics should surpass Limited-10 in May. Personally I think it'll surpass Single Stack in late 2016 / early 2017, but that's too far out to predict accurately. Limited has taken a clear popularity lead over Production- the two generally flip every couple months in popularity, but Limited has been decidedly more popular since June 2015, and the gap appears to be widening. My data shows a fairly consistent growth in total stages shot- I think the sport is still growing nicely. The hesitation here is that I've only recently (2015) got Practiscore data integrated- so 2015 has a lot more data points than earlier years. The trend before then (2011-2014) shows growth... I have 66k classifiers shot in 2011 and 79k shot in 2014. In terms of *percentage of total classifiers shot*, comparing 2014Q1 to 2016Q1: Limited-10 is shrinking- 7.62% -> 5.15% Revolver is shrinking- 4.14% -> 2.31% Single Stack is shrinking- 13.78% -> 10.05% Production is shrinking- 31.43% -> 28.16% Limited is growing- 27.45% -> 34.49% Open is growing- 15.58% -> 17.08% Carry Optics is growing- 0 to 2.76% (gee, imagine that) I suspect over the next few quarters we'll see CO continue to grow, and perhaps slow the growth of Open. I think it will also speed up the decline of Production, though by how much is hard to say. I doubt CO or Open will ever overtake Prod, unless the sport just stops attracting new shooters altogether. Cheers! Jake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrpredictable Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Interesting. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frgood Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 This is very good information. Thank you for taking your time to collect and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basman Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Interesting, thanks Jake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackJones Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 In addition to the PractiScore data are you also importing the monthly classifier updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 12, 2016 Author Share Posted March 12, 2016 In addition to the PractiScore data are you also importing the monthly classifier updates? Yes, I pull data directly from USPSA as well. Actually that's a bit of a problem right now, there are some edge cases where sometimes a match will get duplicated in my stats because it gets pulled from both sources and the duplication isn't detected properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aandabooks Posted March 12, 2016 Share Posted March 12, 2016 Do you see any correlation in a rise to a division activity in the month or two before that division's nationals? Then a fall off after nationals takes place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BritinUSA Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Very interesting stats, thanks for posting these. I wonder if the same growth would have occurred in CO if the original proposal had been left in place, I suspect it would have. Regarding Open and CO, I think there are more than a few competitors who chose Open solely because of the sighting system, and now that CO offers a much cheaper alternative I can see those Open shooters moving to CO when they next buy a new gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatJones Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Guns are cheap, ammo is expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackJones Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 In addition to the PractiScore data are you also importing the monthly classifier updates? Yes, I pull data directly from USPSA as well. Actually that's a bit of a problem right now, there are some edge cases where sometimes a match will get duplicated in my stats because it gets pulled from both sources and the duplication isn't detected properly. I will send you an email with a list of months I am missing to see if you can fill in the gaps. I would like to be able to track CO classifications back to June 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AEuropa Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Side question: do you know when you'll add CO to the app? I'm guessing you're still gathering data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 In addition to the PractiScore data are you also importing the monthly classifier updates? Yes, I pull data directly from USPSA as well. Actually that's a bit of a problem right now, there are some edge cases where sometimes a match will get duplicated in my stats because it gets pulled from both sources and the duplication isn't detected properly. I will send you an email with a list of months I am missing to see if you can fill in the gaps. I would like to be able to track CO classifications back to June 2015. That'd be good, thanks... if you can link to some match results, even better- I suspect a lot of the early CO shooters got entered in a variety of unusual ways. USPSA doesn't do a rigorous job standardizing division names in the data, so my code has to know that LTDTEN, Limited-10, Limited 10, L10, etc, are all the same. I know for sure there are some similar variations with Carry Optics (CO, CarOpt, CarryOpt, etc), and it seems likely there are simply things that have been listed in other ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Side question: do you know when you'll add CO to the app? I'm guessing you're still gathering data... I'm guessing you're on IOS? On Android this is already released. IOS should be soon... that's mostly my fault, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnbu Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 At 55, the reason for CO growing is as clear as the glasses holding nose on my face! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Very interesting stats, thanks for posting these. I wonder if the same growth would have occurred in CO if the original proposal had been left in place, I suspect it would have. Regarding Open and CO, I think there are more than a few competitors who chose Open solely because of the sighting system, and now that CO offers a much cheaper alternative I can see those Open shooters moving to CO when they next buy a new gun. I agree, it's pretty much on course for what I would have expected either way. Optics are great for anyone with imperfect eyes, and that includes a lot of people that aren't going to be buying CZ AccuShadow's or STI Open guns (due to cost, brand loyalty, perceived quality, potential use cases outside of competition, etc). I think we may have to wait for a Carry Optics Nationals to get an equipment survey to get any statistically valid data on what type of gun / optic is preferred for CO. Today I'd have to say it's a polymer frame 9mm, custom milled. In 6 months, I'd probably bet on M&P CORE as most popular (those seem a lot easier to find than Glock MOS models). Maybe eventually we'll see a CZ make the list. They could modify the P-09 or P-07 easily enough, and probably even the SP-01 with some work. I would guess maybe they're just waiting for the division to become finalized so they know it's worth the R&D effort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 At 55, the reason for CO growing is as clear as the glasses holding nose on my face! Yep, I agree completely. A whole lot of the older guys at my local club shoot Open, and it's not because they wanted that compensator or ghost holster. They just wanted to see the sights and have a good time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakemaul Posted March 13, 2016 Author Share Posted March 13, 2016 Guns are cheap, ammo is expensive. True, if you shoot a lot. And especially in the long run. Especially if it's not 9mm Minor. But if you're a casual competitor who shoots a practice or Level-1 USPSA match once or twice a month, a proper competition setup is a major out-of-pocket expense. Ammo expenses can be incurred over time as needed (pay-as-you-go), but the gun is all up-front. Adding in the other stuff you need for a new competitor and the startup cost is pretty substantial. If you're just here for some fun every now and then, the *gun* is expensive and the *ammo* is cheap. That's a big reason you see a whole lot of off-the-shelf 9mm's in production, and far fewer CZ AccuShadows... but in Open it's the reverse- lots of custom race guns and very few modified factory guns that originally cost $500. It's because the folks shooting Open tend to be pretty serious about competing well, and the folks in production are more likely to be casual folks just having fun with their Glock 19. The exception is the folks in Open who are only there because they want (or need) an optic. They follow the Production pattern, but shoot in Open. I expect they'll mostly move to Carry Optics over time. Of course, serious shooters do exist in every division, and for them ammo is definitely the dominant cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gooldylocks Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 Jake you have a PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AEuropa Posted March 13, 2016 Share Posted March 13, 2016 I'm guessing you're on IOS? On Android this is already released. IOS should be soon... that's mostly my fault, sorry. No reason to apologize, the app is AWESOME! I've heard on numerous occasions that working with iOS apps is more intensive than Android. Regardless, you've created a great app, for FREE that is very useful for the community. Do you have a donate link at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brownnutz Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 That's a pretty interesting statistic. Do you think that Carry Optics is growing at a higher rate because it's a "new thing to try"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackJones Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Jake, Would it be possible for you to get Carry Optics stats from PractiScore just for steel challenge matches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smr32767 Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 azshooters.org is an awesome site. Thank you for all your hard work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zhunter Posted March 18, 2016 Share Posted March 18, 2016 Great stuff Jake Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MilkMyDuds Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Production is shrinking- 31.43% -> 28.16% Carry Optics is growing- 0 to 2.76% (gee, imagine that) In marketing, this phenomenon is called cannibalization. Of course, if new shooter growth can fill in that 2.76% it's not. When PCC catches on, we will see more of this. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBugBit Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Sure appreciate your work, Jake! See you at the range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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