Is the shot worth taking, or take the miss?

[waxman]

There was a stage a shot recently that took exactly 21 rnds to complete with one of the targets being a texas star. Of course I missed the star once, which left me 1 rnd short on the last target. I decided quickly to change mags and fire the last round , to avoid the miss. Now, Can anyone tell me, just how fast you would have to do the reload to make it worth it? Obviously I should have reloaded during the course while I was moving, but I simply did not do the math. Is there a way to figure this out?

Edited April 5, 2009 by waxman

[Ron Ankeny]

Sure, just figure your hit factor with the reload then figure the HF again with missing points and penalties minus the time you figure it took to do the standing reload.

[gino_aki]

I always figured a miss is worth about 2.3 seconds...so unless your reload and subsequent shot on an "A" is faster than that...take the miss.

[waxman]

Ok, with taking the shot, and the reload my hit factor was 6.75. If I give myself 2 second and didnt take the shot, my hit factor would have been 6.94 . Ok i just learned something here. SO what this is telling me, is you would have to make the reload and shot, in less then 2 seconds. Am I reading this right?

[shred]

Yeah, it depends on the stage what your HF "could have been" with taking the miss. Generally they're 2+ seconds, sometimes as many as 4.

Be sure to subtract the 10 points for the miss, and also the points you didn't get on the target, for a total of -15 when doing the math.

[j1b]

in general the stage winning hit factor dictates the points per second. If a stage has a hit factor of 10 then if your load for an A zone hit is 2 seconds you've cost yourself 20 points (more if you shoot a C or D0.

That is a generality, it gives you a rough idea though on the decisions you want to make.

For me, mentally, a miss is tough. I'd rather eat the load, take the time hit, but get all my hits. Even if the penalty is higher for doing the load (from a points perspective).

To me, the end goal is to hit all the targets. It's the most basic principle. It is with very rare exception that I believe a miss is better than making a decision like you did. No matter how the points work out, I like saying I hit all the shots I was tasked to take!

Jack

[waxman]

Yeah, it depends on the stage what your HF "could have been" with taking the miss. Generally they're 2+ seconds, sometimes as many as 4.

Be sure to subtract the 10 points for the miss, and also the points you didn't get on the target, for a total of -15 when doing the math.

When I figured it, I added 1 penalty, and -10 points for the miss. Is this correct? I did this on the hit factor calculator.

[j1b]

Yeah, it depends on the stage what your HF "could have been" with taking the miss. Generally they're 2+ seconds, sometimes as many as 4.

Be sure to subtract the 10 points for the miss, and also the points you didn't get on the target, for a total of -15 when doing the math.

When I figured it, I added 1 penalty, and -10 points for the miss. Is this correct? I did this on the hit factor calculator.

On a miss you're down 15 points. -10 points for the penalty. Minus 5 points for not getting an A (Similar to how you'd say you were "down 1 point" if you had a C).

It's 15 points. If you were to get something like a no-shoot/mike - it's down 25 points. Two ten point penalties and the down 5 for not getting an A.

Jack

[Dave Gundry]

Dave - are you talking about stage 2 at Holmen?

If so, here's the breakdown:

Actual: Time=19.25, 120pts, HF=6.2338

Hypothetical: Time=17.25, 105pts, HF=6.0870

Thinking out loud here, because this is also something I've wanted to figure out...

Taking the miss and staying at the same hit factor, we've got: 6.2338/105=16.84 seconds, so that miss is worth about 2.4 seconds.

If it's a shorter stage, say 10 seconds, hit factor of 6 (=60 points), then a miss would be worth: 45/6-10 = 2.5 seconds

So, it would appear that a general estimate would be about 2.5 seconds worth of time on stage with a hit factor of 6.

If the hit factor is higher, say 8, then a long course (160 pts, 20 seconds), then a miss is worth 145/8-20 = 1.875 seconds, and on a short stage (60 pts, 7.5 seconds), then a miss is worth 45/8-7.5 = 1.875 seconds again.

So, higher hit factor = less time to mess it up. If you've already mucked it up somewhere else on the stage, then taking that extra shot is almost always worth it.

(I also found out I probably shouldn't plan on ending a stage with a texas star involved at slide lock )

[Micah]

You probably should have reloaded somewhere before the star. Taking a miss is never the option in a battle plan, and seldom the best move when the shtf.

[waxman]

Dave - are you talking about stage 2 at Holmen?

If so, here's the breakdown:

Actual: Time=19.25, 120pts, HF=6.2338

Hypothetical: Time=17.25, 105pts, HF=6.0870

Thinking out loud here, because this is also something I've wanted to figure out...

Taking the miss and staying at the same hit factor, we've got: 6.2338/105=16.84 seconds, so that miss is worth about 2.4 seconds.

If it's a shorter stage, say 10 seconds, hit factor of 6 (=60 points), then a miss would be worth: 45/6-10 = 2.5 seconds

So, it would appear that a general estimate would be about 2.5 seconds worth of time on stage with a hit factor of 6.

If the hit factor is higher, say 8, then a long course (160 pts, 20 seconds), then a miss is worth 145/8-20 = 1.875 seconds, and on a short stage (60 pts, 7.5 seconds), then a miss is worth 45/8-7.5 = 1.875 seconds again.

So, higher hit factor = less time to mess it up. If you've already mucked it up somewhere else on the stage, then taking that extra shot is almost always worth it.

(I also found out I probably shouldn't plan on ending a stage with a texas star involved at slide lock )

No Dave, this was from Shoot at Milan last fall.

But this does bring up a intersting question, just what did you do with that extra 10 seconds it took you to shoot stage 2??? just curious . Good book? cup of tea?? just kidding lol.

Edited April 5, 2009 by waxman

[Dave Gundry]

d!ck

In between brain farts, I was reloading - ahh the joys of single stack...

[Dave Gundry]

Also, someone correct me if I'm worng, but on a texas star, you'd have to take at least 5 shots at it, or you would wind up down 25 points, -5 (no hit), -10(miss), -10(FTE). Not sure what the procedure would be if you didn't attempt to shoot one of the plates - i.e. your make up shot went to a plate you already tried for... maybe a good question for Jay at the RO class in a couple of weeks...

[Singlestack]

5 shots or you get a FTE as well.

[Sean Gaines]

I probably wouldn't have taken the shot, what if you miss the target again? then you are just adding more time. Plus who figures the hit factor before the stage. That a good after the fact metric, and a woulda, coulda, shoulda. you pretty much blew the stage to begin with, so just pocket the mag grit your teeth and move on to the next stage.

[mgood]

In between brain farts, I was reloading - ahh the joys of single stack...

Wow! That should be my signature line.

[boz1911]

IMHO, never accept a known miss. I don't care if it's a standing reload, I'll make it up irregardless of the HF gain or penalty.

[dajarrel]

IMHO, never accept a known miss. I don't care if it's a standing reload, I'll make it up irregardless of the HF gain or penalty.

boz,

I'm the same way except on the last target. If I get one in it and run dry or shoot at that last piece of steel and run dry, I usually won't make the reload for the shot. The way I look at it, I've screwed up from the beginning by not planning my reloads properly, or by poor shot calling and there is a fair chance that I wouldn't get the hit on the first round anyway. If I've screwed it up that bad, it's probably not going to get any better so I just take my lumps and try to get my head together for the next stage.

fwiw

dj

[waxman]

Also, someone correct me if I'm worng, but on a texas star, you'd have to take at least 5 shots at it, or you would wind up down 25 points, -5 (no hit), -10(miss), -10(FTE). Not sure what the procedure would be if you didn't attempt to shoot one of the plates - i.e. your make up shot went to a plate you already tried for... maybe a good question for Jay at the RO class in a couple of weeks...

TheStage started with the star. I cleaned that, but it took me a extra shot to do it. THis is why I was 1 shot short on the last paper target. Glad you didnt call me one some of the other stages, there were a few that I had some unaccounted time on as well. Oh well live and learn, and continue to spread the word "Remington primers are the devil"

[Jake Di Vita]

If it's a 21 round stage, and I have 21 rounds in the mag, I'll nearly always plan a reload even without steel.

Or since the star was at the start of the stage, you could have a contingency reload planned somewhere during the stage if you had to take more than 5 shots at the star.

Essentially what I'm trying to say is there are ways to avoid putting yourself in the position where you have to decide.

[Nik Habicht]

If it's a 21 round stage, and I have 21 rounds in the mag, I'll nearly always plan a reload even without steel.

Or since the star was at the start of the stage, you could have a contingency reload planned somewhere during the stage if you had to take more than 5 shots at the star.

Essentially what I'm trying to say is there are ways to avoid putting yourself in the position where you have to decide.

I follow Jake's advice, even though it can be fun to shoot a 25 round stage in Limited without a reload.......

.....when the gallery assumes you're shooting a Glock 35, instead of the 34.....

[rupie]

Along these same lines there was a stage at Milan that had 4 steel (i believe) and 2 disappearing, I learned a great lesson from this stage. I was the only one on my squad to get all of my hits, I just aimed at where the floppers were going to be and shot a total of 5 or 6 shots shots at the two floppers while they were moving, I felt pretty good about the hits even with the extra shots. There are guys when the scores came out that just smoked me by not shooting at the floppers and just hitting the steel. This is were i learned that a disappearing target with no miss penalties isn't worth shooting at if it will slow you down by 2 or 3 seconds.

Edited April 5, 2009 by rupie

[waxman]

If it's a 21 round stage, and I have 21 rounds in the mag, I'll nearly always plan a reload even without steel.

Or since the star was at the start of the stage, you could have a contingency reload planned somewhere during the stage if you had to take more than 5 shots at the star.

Essentially what I'm trying to say is there are ways to avoid putting yourself in the position where you have to decide.

This is the best advice, and looking back, this is what I should have done.

[Flexmoney]

How is this a "Questions That "Don't Fit" Anywhere"?

[Nik Habicht]

How is this a "Questions That "Don't Fit" Anywhere"?

Ooops! Moved and Reopened......