Jman Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 Making the most money on a particular product that is possible is not ripping anyone off, it is good business. The bullet makers are selling everything they can make at current prices so they would be flatly stupid to lower prices. They will not do so until the demand drops enough below their capacity to affect the bottom line uncomfortably. Even if demand drops to 80% of their capacity to produce nothing will happen until the bottom line drops below what is needed for everyone to make the money they 'need' to make. Who wouldn't want to run their plant at 80% and make more money than they did 2 years ago? Discounting the price in this type of a market is absurd.Would I like to see bullet prices come down? Absolutely, but I have the business experience to know it won't and why. This is right on. Look at what has happened to gasoline since last spring/summer. Oil exporting nations did not meet and decide to get charitable. Demand worldwide tanked and in a big way. To a lesser degree that's happening now to ammo and component manufactures. Military and government procurements have leveled off. The hand wringing doomsday panic types aren't buying as much since mother won't allow more "gun things" in her basement. Components prices will never be as low as they were a few years ago. But they will moderate when the market demands it. Jim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wooddog Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 This is right on. Look at what has happened to gasoline since last spring/summer. Oil exporting nations did not meet and decide to get charitable. Demand worldwide tanked and in a big way. To a lesser degree that's happening now to ammo and component manufactures. Military and government procurements have leveled off. The hand wringing doomsday panic types aren't buying as much since mother won't allow more "gun things" in her basement. Components prices will never be as low as they were a few years ago. But they will moderate when the market demands it. Jim But that was also said about gas prices and look at them now... However that being said, buy what you need at what ever the current price is bitch about it to make ourselves feel better about and when prices do fall think how happy we will be to buy more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
splashdown Posted January 2, 2009 Share Posted January 2, 2009 FWIW, I just talked to Bear Creek asking for their 09 price list. They said to use the 08 sheet as there will be no price increase. What about a price decrease??? I noticed Midway bumped Rainier prices up by a few bucks per thousand. I may be ordering from Bear Creek as moly is the best value out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishlad Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Shot has gone down about 30% so far, where I buy. I'm still waiting for another 30% before I buy "big"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ranger Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 I am low on shot - I HOPE lead shot finally falls back so that I can get more lead shot. For pistol, I switched to Production and shoot the cheapest 9mm I can get my hands on. It would be very interesting to see a survey from USPSA showing local match trends - I bet there are a lot less shooters over the last 6 months across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin D Wolverton Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 I am low on shot - I HOPE lead shot finally falls back so that I can get more lead shot. For pistol, I switched to Production and shoot the cheapest 9mm I can get my hands on. It would be very interesting to see a survey from USPSA showing local match trends - I bet there are a lot less shooters over the last 6 months across the board. At the Milan Rifle Club July 08 - 52 shooters August 08 - 62 shooters September 08 - Milan Fall Classic (Level I) - 105 shooters (outdrew the Illinois sectional) October 08 - 29 shooters (really bad weather... 25 degrees, 45 mph winds) November 08 - 36 shooters (still crappy weather) December 08 - 11 shooters (indoors... this is normal... plus, 3 days after Christmas) Our numbers have actually gone up this year. We may be the exception however.... Frank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpspeed Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 If the price of bullets was directly related to the cost of the lead & copper, all bullet mfg would charge the same. They don't. Not even close. If I was a bullet maker and the market will support the higher prices, I'd leave them where they are. If my profit drops, then I'd look at a price decrease to increase sales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Posted January 3, 2009 Share Posted January 3, 2009 Making the most money on a particular product that is possible is not ripping anyone off, it is good business. The bullet makers are selling everything they can make at current prices so they would be flatly stupid to lower prices. They will not do so until the demand drops enough below their capacity to affect the bottom line uncomfortably. Even if demand drops to 80% of their capacity to produce nothing will happen until the bottom line drops below what is needed for everyone to make the money they 'need' to make. Who wouldn't want to run their plant at 80% and make more money than they did 2 years ago? Discounting the price in this type of a market is absurd.Would I like to see bullet prices come down? Absolutely, but I have the business experience to know it won't and why. This is right on. Look at what has happened to gasoline since last spring/summer. Oil exporting nations did not meet and decide to get charitable. Demand worldwide tanked and in a big way. To a lesser degree that's happening now to ammo and component manufactures. Military and government procurements have leveled off. The hand wringing doomsday panic types aren't buying as much since mother won't allow more "gun things" in her basement. Components prices will never be as low as they were a few years ago. But they will moderate when the market demands it. Jim Oil was being played by the specs in a big way during the run-up. Many things changed, including demand (somewhat) but in the past 6 months a lot of things have been liquidated by traders to meet obligations in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckbradley Posted January 4, 2009 Share Posted January 4, 2009 Current spot prices are not what they pay. The dist has a profit margin. They do lock into pricing to ensure future supply and some price continuity. They also buy the copper processed into cups and lead into extrusions. So their actual cost on the raw product is much higher than figuring the spot price. Also lead is about 3 times higher then it once was and copper is about 50% higher. If we think the price of the finished product is driven completely by raw materials we are mistaken. They also have increased Labor costs, increased shipping costs, increased costs across the board. The industry is equipment intensive which requires constant maintenance and repair. I could tell from things that were said to me in the past that Zero was not very profitable, now i assume they are profitable due to the demand. At least we will have a bullet manufacturer in the short term. They already were a great vlaue and why they were one of the leaders of supply to this sport. They still are a good value relative to the competition. Its a high quality product with a product offering that fits our sports and is competitively priced. Now later this year I am told there will be an adjustment if the prices hold where they are. Dont expect a great reduction since the majority of their costs is not in the raw material. They sell a finished product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flexmoney Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 And, they (suppliers) probably sold for a longer time than they should have at the lower prices. In a sense, we (consumers) were gouging the bullet suppliers...because we were willing to pay more, but didn't when the prices were lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raz-0 Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 I think the short answer is you won't be seeing price drops, regardless of metal prices, until the bullet making machines output falls below 100% capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob D Posted January 5, 2009 Share Posted January 5, 2009 I like Joe D's idea about getting a big order together and pricing bids. At least this lets the manufacturers know that we're shopping, and in the mean time it gets us the best deal possible. I would assume that most bullet manufacturers aren't HUGE company's in the sense that those making pricing decisions are completely uninvolved in the ordering process. If more of us placed bulk orders and compared prices with multiple suppliers, we would be encouraging one supplier or another to give a better deal which is key to getting the rest of them to drop prices. Aside from what's happening with bullet prices and why, this seems to be the best thing we can do in the mean time to encourage competition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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