How to easily estimate Hit Factor in Walkthrough

[tackdr1ver]

Wondering how you guys approach Hit Factor in your stage walk through.

Essentially, what I am looking for is an easy formula or model to use when I look at a stage to determine whether more of a speedy approach or an accuracy approach is necessary to the stage. Ideally neither accuracy or speed will suffer. But alas, i'm only human and not quite there yet.

How important is it to determine hit factor before shooting a stage or is it more advisable to simply shoot the stage without worrying about it?

[Hi-Power Jack]

Wondering how you approach Hit Factor in your stage walk through.

Tack, I've talked to two GM's about this, and Manny Bragg said

it's a waste of time, IHO.

The other said he can estimate his time for a COF before he

shoots it, but didn't say that it matters (he actually brought

up the subject during a Course I attended).

Jack

[Demax]

Better ask RO on the stage about best time in your division.

At least you will know the best achieved HF on that moment

[Flexmoney]

I have a thread here called wanna-b-speedy part 3. Summary = shoot alphas!

[Steve Anderson]

There may be an advantage for some personality types in knowing what the hit factor is. (supposed to be)

But what exactly are going to do with that information?

Somehow be faster or more accurate than you are? (today)

[tackdr1ver]

I have a thread here called wanna-b-speedy part 3. Summary = shoot alphas!

I'll look for the post. Ultimately you're correct, I am dropping far too many points. Need to work on getting nothing but good hits.

There may be an advantage for some personality types in knowing what the hit factor is. (supposed to be)

But what exactly are going to do with that information?

Somehow be faster or more accurate than you are? (today)

I guess at this stage in the game, it won't do me much good. It would be more beneficial to focus on shooting a good clean match than worrying about hit factor.

[bbbean]

Wondering how you guys approach Hit Factor in your stage walk through.

Essentially, what I am looking for is an easy formula or model to use when I look at a stage to determine whether more of a speedy approach or an accuracy approach is necessary to the stage. Ideally neither accuracy or speed will suffer. But alas, i'm only human and not quite there yet.

How important is it to determine hit factor before shooting a stage or is it more advisable to simply shoot the stage without worrying about it?

Answers to this question can be frustrating. As you know, you have to be both fast and accurate to win. That said, it is possible to focus more on one than the other, specially on close targets. I think it was TGO who said if the total points available are less than 60, he'll take a little extra time to get his hits, because you need every point at that level. Above 60 pts, you may be able to stand a few C hits if you were able to cut time off your run. IMHO, this really only applies to targets in what Manny Bragg calls your "safe zone" - i.e. the range at which you can reliably get A hits with minimal sight picture. Once you get beyond that, the only acceptable strategy is to get good sight pictures as fast as you can.

Spend a few minutes with a calculator and you'll see how it works. Compare, say, a 3 second run on a 30 pt stage with 5 pts down vs a 3.35 second run with all As. On the other hand, compare a 10 second run on a 100 pts stage with 5 pts down vs a 11 second run with all As.

BB

[vluc]

Your time is better spent working on your plan and id'ing where all the targets are....

[ErichF]

So far, my strategy in making B class in 4 months has been to MOVE fast, but SHOOT slow. There's a lot of areas one can improve on speed that don't affect actual shots, such as transitions, reloads, getting into new shooting positions more efficiently. For me, doing all those faster and faster has allowed me to keep on the A Zone by making more deliberate shots. In Production, you just have to get Alphas to make any money. What has been happening to me is my shooting has "felt" slow, but in fact has gotten faster, too. As they say, speed comes with time...a rather ironic statement in itself

[Jon Merricks]

It can be helpful esp on stages with disappearing targets.

[Joe4d]

cant help you ahead of time but a good rule for afterwards, look at your points

If you are hitting over 90% of your points go faster, if you are hitting under 90% slow down.

Of course sometimes I do neither, I shoot to win, I never play it safe, this strategy tends to result in a Hero or zero, with not much room for in between.

My philosphy:

SHoot to loose and you will,

Shoot to win you might.

[Bunchies95]

I have been reading Saul Kirsch's books recently and some good points are brought up about this. Basically you need to have a good understanding of your abilities. Things you want to know about youself:

• What are your split/transition times at various distance
  
• How fast can you move from shooting position to shooting position?
  
• What is you reload time to next shot?
  
• Can you shoot on the move?
  
• If you were to shoot the same arrays with A/C instead of A/A how much faster can you go?
  

This is not a complete list, but a decent start. If you know this, you can get an estimate of what your hit factor is going to be for a given tatic. If one option gives you a significant HF advantage, that is the one you want to use. If you high HF strategy is overly complicated (very specific shooting position, target engagement, etc) you may be better to use the lower HF tatic that you can repeat time and time again.

Disclaimer: I have not been able to put this into practice yet, but am building up my personal database of abilities to do just this. Worst case, I know where my abilities stand and my weaknesses are eay to point out.

[dravz]

It can be helpful esp on stages with disappearing targets.

How so? Deciding if it is worth it to engage them?

[Sarge]

It can be helpful esp on stages with disappearing targets.

How so? Deciding if it is worth it to engage them?

Yes. I'm not nearly to the point yet but I have seen numerous shooters simply activate a disappearing target and move on. I would say you better be pretty fast and accurate to play at that level. I need every point I can milk out of a run.

[XRe]

Tack, I've talked to two GM's about this, and Manny Bragg said

it's a waste of time, IHO.

For the most part, I agree with Manny. Except...

But what exactly are going to do with that information?

There's one case where the information becomes very useful. There's a rare stage where you have a disappearing target that makes you wonder if it's worth the time to shoot at it or not. For instance, Stage 12 at this year's Area 2 had two disappearing targets that presented this sort of decision. In order to make the best decision about how to attack the stage, you need to understand how much time it will take you to engage the target, and how many points that time is worth - and in order to know that, you need to be able to make a reasonable guess at how long it will take you to shoot the stage (and, therefore, what your hit factor might be).

Other than that, knowing that data doesn't really give you anything useful for the majority of the stages you'll shoot.

[Skydiver]

Your estimated hit factor will tell you whether it's worth standing there trying to hit that one last plate on the Texas Star, or that mini-popper, or just move on to the rest of the course. It'll tell you whether you should take that extra shot when at unload and show clear you spot an alpha-mike.

Edited March 1, 2012 by Skydiver

[XRe]

Your estimated hit factor will tell you whether it's worth standing there trying to hit that one last plate on the Texas Star, or that mini-popper, or just move on to the rest of the course.

And you're going to do that math mid-stage? Not likely. If you're going to stand there and reload, you should be moving on. A couple extra shots at it is enough...

It'll tell you whether you should take that extra shot when at unload and show clear you spot an alpha-mike.

Already too late, in the majority of cases. If you're really slow, and we're talking about a 2-3 hit factor, it might be worth it. At a 2 hit factor, the miss is worth 7.5 seconds. At 3, it's worth 5 seconds. For most people, you're going to be running 4+ hit factor on most stages, and by the time you get the command, realize the miss, then make it up, you're behind the curve...

(edit to fix stupid math errors)

Edited March 1, 2012 by XRe

[Skydiver]

Your estimated hit factor will tell you whether it's worth standing there trying to hit that one last plate on the Texas Star, or that mini-popper, or just move on to the rest of the course.

And you're going to do that math mid-stage? Not likely. If you're going to stand there and reload, you should be moving on. A couple extra shots at it is enough...

No, definitely not. That's why the OP was was asking about estimating the HF during the walkthrough. It let's me program in ahead of time any contingency plans such that if I'm having difficulty with a target, I'll have a feel for how much time is worth investing on a target vs. moving on.

It'll tell you whether you should take that extra shot when at unload and show clear you spot an alpha-mike.

Already too late, in the majority of cases. If you're really slow, and we're talking about a 2-3 hit factor, it might be worth it. At a 2 hit factor, the miss is worth 7.5 seconds. At 3, it's worth 5 seconds. For most people, you're going to be running 4+ hit factor on most stages, and by the time you get the command, realize the miss, then make it up, you're behind the curve...

(edit to fix stupid math errors)

For us, who aren't going for stage wins, but just enough stage points to beat the other B and C class shooters taking or not taking that extra shot matters. :-)

[Flexmoney]

For us, who aren't going for stage wins, but just enough stage points to beat the other B and C class shooters taking or not taking that extra shot matters. :-)

You hit factors will, therefore, be low enough that points are certainly a priority.

Hit You Alphas!

[XRe]

For us, who aren't going for stage wins, but just enough stage points to beat the other B and C class shooters taking or not taking that extra shot matters. :-)

You hit factors will, therefore, be low enough that points are certainly a priority.

Hit You Alphas!

But not generally low enough that taking shots after "If You're Finished, Unload and Show Clear" will pay off

[Jadeslade]

It's easy to say just shoot alphas. Duh. However, as you all remember the famous carry the ammo can penalty stage from the 2009 US IPSC match in Ohio(see that thread), there is a lot more thinking going on in some people's minds than others. Also, if you are injured, or recovering, or it's real slippery or something-anything, you may want to formalize your goal. That said, just take the stage points, estimate your time it will take you to shoot a stage, by doing a quick walk through, and do the math. I think it can be misleading when GM's like Manny say-it doesn't matter-they have shot thousands of matches and are unconsciously estimating hit factor as part of their walk through.

After a while-like ten Area matches or something, it will part of your DNA, too.

[BillD]

On advice from a Master, I blew off drop turners at the 2010 MI sectional. I was shooting SS and I would have had to stop and reload before the drop turners to have enough ammo to engage them. I blew right by them. It worked well for me that time.

[XRe]

It's easy to say just shoot alphas. Duh.

Wow... you see some great advice (offered by someone who's been there and done that) and you take a dump on it... Nice...

I think it can be misleading when GM's like Manny say-it doesn't matter-they have shot thousands of matches and are unconsciously estimating hit factor as part of their walk through.

It's not misleading at all - and I can tell you that most GMs are not walking around thinking (consciously or sub-consciously) about what their hit factor is going to be on a particular stage. That's because most GM's recognize exactly what Manny said, and exactly what Kyle and Steve are both getting at. On the vast majority of stages that you'll shoot, the potential hit factor that you can shoot on the stage is irrelevant - it's your performance that matters. Put the gun in the A-zone, break and call clean shots, and do everything else as quickly as you can, and you'll have the highest possible hit factor your can shoot. Start thinking about "well, gee, I really need to focus on points on this one" or "gosh, I really need to go fast on this one" and you do neither, and you will not, repeat NOT, shoot the highest possible hit factor.

I've had conversations with quite a number of GMs on the range, and the only time any question about hit factor came up with any of them was in the afore mentioned, rare disappearing target scenario. What's foremost on the minds of GMs is how to most efficiently shoot the stage (which includes flow), how to position themselves to take the lowest risk shots on all the targets, and how to best trade between those two things.

What the GMs get that you apparently are not getting is that you need all the points you can get, regardless of the hit factor of the stage (well, except in the even more extremely rare 18+ hit factor type things... I think I've shot 2, maybe 3 of these in my lifetime...).

After a while-like ten Area matches or something, it will part of your DNA, too.

Naw, you'll just forget about it, cause you'll realize it just doesn't frickin' matter...

[Nik Habicht]

There may be an advantage for some personality types in knowing what the hit factor is. (supposed to be)

But what exactly are going to do with that information?

Somehow be faster or more accurate than you are? (today)

Early on in my career there were stages where I knew during the walkthrough that my time would be much slower than on the average stage. If I were taking twice the time of a GM on average, these were stages where, for whatever reason, I knew I'd take 3-4 times as long.....

I do know that by focusing on shooting alphas on those stages I kept the gap from the getting as wide as it would have gotten otherwise....

So, if there's something that you know you can't do fast -- shoot alphas....

If there are targets that you know you'll miss at speed -- take whatever time is required to shoot alphas....

That's a lot of words -- so just figure out what it takes to shoot (virtually) all alphas. Then do that, and let the time and hit factor fall where they may...

[kevin c]

I would like to think that, at least at matches at the sectional level and above, the stage designers will have designed their stages well enough that it should be worth while to shoot every target. (Mebbe wishful thinking, that... )