Gas Prices!

[h4444]

It's the market, folks.

If A is unwilling to pay a certain price, but B is willing than the gas or whatever product will flow to B.

As long as people in a country are willing to pay to going rate there will be sufficient supply.

Most imported oil to this country comes from Canada and South America - we should stay on good terms with those producers.

If people in Arizona are willing to pay a premium price for  premium Open Guns but folks in another state are not, than the better Open Guns will migrate to Az. It's a market decision on the part of producers.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's the BS, folks,,,,,

The refiners in the US claim there is a refining capacity problem,,,,OK,,,,if that is the case, I could see gas going up. If refining is the bottleneck, then wouldn't their eventually be a glut in crude inventories,,,,if that's the case since we burn about 1/3 of the world's oil,,,,wouldn't that eventually slow crude purchases. Why the hell buy crude expensive when it will sit due to a refining bottleneck.

Either we've got some fools buying or something's getting jerked around.....

When you've got the Exxon's, Chevron's, BP's and others making money at both ends of the pipe,,,,,,it makes you wonder a little when they bitch about a refining capacity shortage. If it is an issue of the free market and the companies are telling the truth that there is a refining bottleneck,,,,,there should be a bubble burst at some point in the crude market,,,,,,

Who's distorting the truth???

[Sam]

OK, I'll preface my comments by saying that I've worked for "evil" oil companies for over 20 years. I'm not a big time shareholder, just a technician at the bottom of the corporate ladder. I've seen first hand what goes into the production of a barrell of oil, it gives me a different perspective.

For me, it's kinda spooky. I see crazy high prices, but exploration budgets aren't increasing much. I see corporate take-overs, one after another, for the last 7 years. I see the energy hunger from China driving them to try and aquire Unocal. But I don't see much drilling outside of known fields.

If oil is so plentiful, why buy another company for their reserves? Why not just drill for it?

In the 1960's the world used about 6 billion barells of oil per year and discovered about 50 billion new barrels a year. Now we use over 80 billion barrels per year and new discoveries are much, much smaller. Maybe we've eaten all the low hanging fruit?

I have a hard time buying the theory that the governments of Russia, China, and Venezuela are in bed with Exxon-Mobil.

There is a paradox: Either the "oil powers" are in collusion with one another or they are in all out eye-gouging competition for oil that is getting harder and more expensive to locate and produce.

I'm going to get flamed for this. I started to suspect in 1999 that oil might be getting harder to find. We are burning up energy like never before on this planet. China and India are now beginning to discover neat new toys like cars and electronics. The world-wide consumption curve is headed no where but up.

I don't claim to know all the answers. I'm a level-headed conservative and not an environemtnal wacko. But, I only see oil production getting more and more costly as a finite resource is consumed in greater and greater quantities.

If you disagree with my analysis, I suggest that you gather a group of like-minded individuals and buy up some oil and gas leases at the next state or federal auction. Check with the BLM or MMS in your state. Then you can hire a geologist and a drilling contractor and produce some low cost oil to prove that it can be done.

Good luck, and keep a cool tool.

[OKO USA]

OK, I'll preface my comments by saying that I've worked for "evil" oil companies for over 20 years.  I'm not a big time shareholder, just a technician at the bottom of the corporate ladder.  I've seen first hand what goes into the production of a barrell of oil, it gives me a different perspective. 

For me, it's kinda spooky.  I see crazy high prices, but exploration budgets aren't increasing much.  I see corporate take-overs, one after another, for the last 7 years.  I see the energy hunger from China driving them to try and aquire Unocal.  But I don't see much drilling outside of known fields.

If oil is so plentiful, why buy another company for their reserves? Why not just drill for it? 

In the 1960's the world used about 6 billion barells of oil per year and discovered about 50 billion new barrels a year.  Now we use over 80 billion barrels per year and new discoveries are much, much smaller.  Maybe we've eaten all the low hanging fruit?

I have a hard time buying the theory that the governments of Russia, China, and Venezuela are in bed with Exxon-Mobil. 

There is a paradox: Either the "oil powers" are in collusion with one another or they are in all out eye-gouging competition for oil that is getting harder and more expensive to locate and produce.

I'm going to get flamed for this.  I started to suspect in 1999 that oil might be getting harder to find.  We are burning up energy like never before on this planet.  China and India are now beginning to discover neat new toys like cars and electronics.  The world-wide consumption curve is headed no where but up.

I don't claim to know all the answers.  I'm a level-headed conservative and not an environemtnal wacko.  But, I only see oil production getting more and more costly as a finite resource is consumed in greater and greater quantities.

If you disagree with my analysis, I suggest that you gather a group of like-minded individuals and buy up some oil and gas leases at the next state or federal auction.  Check with the BLM or MMS in your state. Then you can hire a geologist and a drilling contractor and produce some low cost oil to prove that it can be done.

Good luck, and keep a cool tool.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Good point, I personally believe that the earth has more oil then we will ever need. We know more about outer space then we do of the inside of our own planet. But trying to get to that oil is not cost effective.

There are so many factors that are affecting this issue, and we as the little guys have little choice but to just hang on for the ride.

[Sam]

In the 1960's the world used about 6 billion barells of oil per year and discovered about 50 billion new barrels a year. Now we use over 80 billion barrels per year and new discoveries are much, much smaller. Maybe we've eaten all the low hanging fruit?

Sorry, I get confused with big numbers sometimes. I should have written 80 million barrels per day, which is actually 29.2 Billion per year.

So now, we are using about 5 times what we were using in the '60's. Most estimates of world reserves are about 800 billion barrels, or 27 years worth, remaining at current consumption rates. If consumption rates continue to climb, some estimates forcast that the majority of recoverable oil is gone in as little as 15 years. Canadian oil sands and Rocky Mountain oil shale reserves have been added into some estimates. This oil does exist, but processing it is much less cost effective than simply pumping it from the ground.

We have all grown up in a world built on cheap oil. It has always been there. Soon, I expect we will have some adjustments to make. I would rather see diesel used to grow, harvest, and deliver food than to power a hundred thousand motor coaches and jet planes full of people on vacation. Yes, I'm a party pooper! But then, 20 years from now, I'm planning on needing to eat.

Google " World Oil Production" or "World oil reserves" and see the estimates for yourselves.

[Ray_Z]

Parden my parenoid mind. I still believe that there are energy alternatives out there and that the petroliem industry is concealing them for obvious reasons. The auto manufacturers are selling their product at a record low price, just to keep the production lines moving. The economy of the world is being hurt because of the expencive energy costs.

[Vlad]

Actually I dont think that the auto industry is selling their product at a record low price. I think the opposite is true. Markups on vehicles is CRAZY and getting higher every year as far as I can tell. I'm quite amused when a vehicle gets $4000 more expensive from one year to the next, when nothing was changed on it.

As for Oil .. I dont know what to think. Maybe the Peak Oil guys are right. But on the other hand, what I dont understand is if the oil companies and I presume the worlds governements are aware of the coming social colapse that would result from oil shortages, why would either of them behave like they do? Seriously? They both seem to encourage growth of usage vs. even a hint of catastrophe. I gotta believe that they are not ALL phsycotic folks wishing to see the end of civilization, and frankly I think they could make MORE money by creating an early scarcity and making everyone compete for their product while its still easy to get. In other words the opposite of what they are doing.

I dont know.

[Sam]

I don't think anyone is being paranoid. The end of cheap oil, if true, would be a much larger problem politically than say, the Social Security deficit. I don't expect politicans to rush out and tell everyone the good news until the last possible moment. But, I guarantee you that Congress knows how much we have and how much we are using.

There have been urban legends since my childhood of 100 mpg carburetors that the energy companies bought the patents on and refuse to produce. I believe that there are 100 mpg vehicles out there. But they don't weight 6,000 lbs and produce 265 horsepower. This would be a good topic for the Mythbusters show.

Most estimates are that about 23% of the worlds oil reserves have been depleted since the 1800's when petroleum began to replace whale oil, much to the relief of whales everywhere. (The supply of whales was not endless either.)

We are using 5 times more now than we did 40 years ago, but we are not finding 5 times as much. Obviously, oil isn't found everywhere. In the US, we have "oil states", like Texas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. The first oil boom started in Pennsylvania. How much oil is left in the Penn State? I don't know....

I assure you that every state government and the federal government knows exactly how much oil is under it's borders, as it is a huge source of tax revenue. Many state and federal geologists used to work for "big oil". It is impossible for an oil company to hide an oil field. There are too many partners and too many regulatory agencies with differing agendas for that oil.

I find it much more plausable to believe that the easist oil was brought to market first and that subsequent oil will be increasingly harder to locate and produce, thus more expensive. Would this be a huge problem for society? That would depend on how people reacted to it. Right now people are awakening, due to higher prices, to the realization that someting is causing marked price increases. The first thing Congress will do is to "round up the usual suspects." There will be hearings and much grave pontification, but no real answers. Because the real answer is that the dear voters are simply using more than mother earth can supply. Bad answer, Mr. Congressman!

I expect that eventually, most people will realize that we need to conserve the oil we do have and develop alternatives. But, I seriously doubt that any alternatives will ever be as cheap and plentiful as oil was in the 20th century. It isn't doomsday. It isn't the end of civilization. But, it should be the beginning of a major conservation effort by the largest consumer of energy on the planet, John Q. Public.

[scooterj]

there's no shortage of oil. There is a shortage of refineries in the US, the last one built here was in the '70s and it's the 3rd largest in the country. They are planing an expansion that would double their "cracking" capacity. They are cracking 275 thousand barrels a day and are running all out. More cars and more people NEED more gas. Without more refineries we can't have more gas.

[BigDave]

I think that consumers acting hysterically is only fanning the flames. Something we all need to do is take a look around the world. Canada seems to roll right along at ~$4/gal. Europe is probably close to $6/gal and the Euro is stronger than the dollar. Some attitudes and behaviors will need adjustment here in the US if gas goes to and maintains ~$3/gal. I wonder what was going through my parents minds during the oil embargo in the early 70's. Yeah, it was different circumstances, but it still boiled down to the same basic principle: supply vs. demand. The supply issue this time, so we're told, is refining capacity. Somewhere, somehow, people will make decisions that will effect the supply side in our favor. Oh, how the pendulum swings.

However, I think this is a good wake up call. Chris Rock states in one of his stand-up routines "You can drive a car with your feet if you want to, but IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S A GOOD IDEA!!!" Sure, you can drive a 6000#, 10mpg 4WD pickup as you mode of daily transportation to and from the local Smootie King, but IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S A GOOD IDEA!!!. Now, before I get flamed, I own a 4WD SUV that is a gas guzzler. But, I've learned to take it out when I need to, like to haul things (1600 lb of topsoil and mulch) and people. When I have a choice, its the 33+ mpg Mazda.

BTW - who can direct me to a good stockbroker. Exxon-Mobile, BP, and RDS's profits are all up 25%. I need to cash in on some of that.

[timamal]

Gas just got to 2.60 a gallon here in winter Park fl

[Peter K]

OK,

we are about 6,1 Dollars for 1 gallon here in Germany !!!

1 liter is about 1,30 Euros (including 81 Euro-Cents for tax)!!!

[raz-0]

Well, there IS going to be a problem with china and india coming online. 2 billion extra people trying to live like the US isn't going to work wihout taking a VERY different approach to it.

But that's longer term. Short term, we have refinery problems. There's straight up capacity, and it's aggravated by environmental issues building new ones or expanding capacity. There were recent stopapges at a large percentage of refineries recently, and then you have all the gas "formulations." MTBF might have been good in the lab, but I doubt it. It was mostly legislated in as a solution in a very bad way. In reality, it was about 16% cleaner, and about 18% less efficient. Which meant overall it didn't clean up the air. California has WAY too many boutique formulations, hence they get the worst prices.

There are a number of other answers to the problem in the long run. A couple of really interesting ones are the changing worlds technologies dealie. ( http://www.changingworldtech.com/ ), hydrocarbon scrubbing (no link, but we basically need to get them recovering more complex hydrocarbons), and solar-mechanical power generation ( http://pesn.com/2005/08/11/9600147_Edison_..._largest_solar/ ).

There was also a pretty cool design going into testing as a large scale model of a tidal generator that deals pretty well with the eyesore issue and can be used as a desalinization plant to boot.

I doubt it will be a seemless transition to newer technologies. We will have to open up ANWR, and decide that humans are more important than caribou, and that nuclear powerplants are much less scary than food riots and the collapse of society.

It's all going to run headlong into beurocracy, and there willahve to be some shaking out over that.

But the recent hike is mostly refiniers going offline due to problems and the crack addled gambling mentality of futures speculation.

[cking]

It the law of supply and demand. They will keep raising the price until the consumption drops. Then the price will fall to get the consumption back up. So if rest of world keeps buying at the high prices, and consumption keeps rising the price will never fall.

What would you do if you had a commodity that when you were in full production people are willing to pay more for it. Raise your price.

We all seen this happen with guns, if demand outstrip capacity prices keep raising. When capacity can meets demand, prices fall to a level that can sustain production and reasonable profit.

I wish I had bought oil stocks at the beginning of the war, should have learned that a long time ago!!! Duh!

[pisgahrifle]

We are now at $2.71-$2.82 PG here in the DC area. I was further south towards Woodbridge today and filled up down thataway for $2.59. Never thought I'd call that cheap.

[carinab]

and then you have all the gas "formulations." MTBF might have been good in the lab, but I doubt it. It was mostly legislated in as a solution in a very bad way. In reality, it was about 16% cleaner, and about 18% less efficient. Which meant overall it didn't clean up the air. California has WAY too many boutique formulations, hence they get the worst prices.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Don't get me started on additives. We have a local lake that was shut down for months while they cleaned up the additive that was supposed to make gas more air friendly. And yes, that lake was being used for local water supply. I triple filter my water. Heck, maybe I should just switch to drinking foo-foo mineral water.

[old shooter]

I use my truck for my business, and the diesel prices are such that I will probably start adding a surcharge to my customers. As it is now, I only give free estimates if I happen to be doing work, or driving in their area.

I filled my gas can for my lawn mower today and that cost me 12.45. Maybe I need to start mowing my lawn every other weekend.

Mike

[Vlad]

I filled my gas can for my lawn mower today and that cost me 12.45.  Maybe I need to start mowing my lawn every other weekend.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or get some goats. Frankly I hate mowing the lawn, so now I have another excuse to give my wife .. Sorry hun .. its 'spensive Lucy!

[Merlin Orr]

[davidwiz]

When the price of gas per gallon goes up ten cents over night (as it did a week or so ago), you know there is a problem. About a year ago, it would cost me about $20 to fill up my car from empty, yesterday, it costs $42, and that was getting it at the cheapest station around. Thankfully, in a few weeks, I'm going to be working in the city, which means public transportation for me, instead of an 80 mile commute.

[chp5]

I just can't believe that development of a practical alternative fuel is so far out of reach

Even with some advancments on hybrids, there're still no great alternatives. I have some conspiracy theories . . .

[stingerjg]

I filled my gas can for my lawn mower today and that cost me 12.45.  Maybe I need to start mowing my lawn every other weekend.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Or get some goats. Frankly I hate mowing the lawn, so now I have another excuse to give my wife .. Sorry hun .. its 'spensive Lucy!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Dont water the lawn, it wont grow, it will go dormant till it gets water. If it would quit friggin raining around here, i wouldnt mow all summer.

[hdgun]

This what I just paid for gas today.

BTW: I use supreme

[GTOSHootr]

John,

Come a little further south towards Providence. Supreme only costs WIFE.

[hdgun]

I'll tell ya Steve, This is going to have a huge affect on my shooting. I can't afford to live fire practice as much. And I might have to limit my matches. Havard and Manville will probably be the ones I choose. Westfield is over 200 miles round trip, so is Hartford. My car is real good on gas too. 2001 Olds, Aurora. gets 27-30 highway.

We'll see!!!

[stingerjg]

I was looking at this thread earlier today thinking how much its gonna suck paying over $3 for gas. I left at 9:45 to take the dog to the vet, the gas was $2.75. The gas station was on the other side of the median so i decided to wait till after the vet. Big mistake! An hour later the price had gone up $.44 to $3.19. Grrr

Im leaving soon for Iraq, i wonder what the gas prices will be like in 18 months.

we are all going to be stuck driving tiny cars like the Toyota Prius