2025 PST Changes

[GKB]

9 hours ago, schmidtg said:

I encourage you to regenerate and post this table for all divisions against 2025 PSTs. 

 

The data source I'm using (STEELRANKINGS.COM) has the percentages calculated in it's data.  I'm just pulling it into EXCEL and counting.  It's not even straight forward as an individual person's PST is set based on the stages they have eligible for classification.  (Not everyone has shot all 8 stages.  Not even all GMs.)  Plus, to get a true 2025 view requires throwing out scores shot in 2022.

 

[Hoops]

I understand that the SCSA committee chair will be posting an article regarding the new PST’s and the math used.  Until then no one knows the math basis formulas used.  Once the article is posted it will be easy enough to pull data if anyone chooses to do so.

 

There will be two significant events in January that will affect shooter’s classification; New PST’s and dropping scores from 2022.  

[zzt]

I think an earlier post by @Hoops has merit.  I remember starting in RFPO years ago.  After my first season I was less the 1/2 second away from A.  They changed the peak by 5 seconds.  At the end of the second season, I had gotten to within 1 second of the new A.  They changed peak again.  Very, very frustrating.  I know people who quit shooting SCSA because they kept changing the goal posts.

 

Personally, I've given up hope on ever making A in Open.  So, I rarely shoot it anymore.  I've stopped aspiring to M in RFRO and PCCO.  I'll note the policy of removing faster times that are two years old, plus changing peak times every year has the effect of moving most shooters backwards.  As I age, I'm getting more infirm and slower.  It is harder and harder to regain the lost time.  I haven't given up yet, but the 2025 adjustments may do it.  I'm happy if I shoot a PB in every match.  

[Hoops]

Update:  It is my understanding that the formula for the 2025 PST’s is based on using a straight average of >=95% with no rounding up to 1/4.  No cap on high percentage.  Data from 2024 WSSC.

 

There will be an official SCSA article that will be published.  

[bigdawgbeav]

yup.. moving the goalposts again.  There goes my PCCI GM.

[Squirrel45]

I just have two thoughts here.

One,the times are all relative to other shooters you compete with. Second, changing the peak times last year and now this seems a bit silly. When looking at stats one years data points (world24) seems to lack depth & breath. Are not there other areas of SC that could warrant attention?

[Hoops]

19 minutes ago, Squirrel45 said:

I just have two thoughts here.

One,the times are all relative to other shooters you compete with. Second, changing the peak times last year and now this seems a bit silly. When looking at stats one years data points (world24) seems to lack depth & breath. Are not there other areas of SC that could warrant attention?

Now that I think about it more, the assumption is that each year may go down.  If the requirement is to review the WSSC each year, what would happen if the times were slower?

 

When I looked at centerfire stats under Limited Optics, I used Steelrankings 2023 based on the assumption that the top shooters would be from all area, state and the WSSC.  A much better set of data points in my mind.  

[GKB]

20 minutes ago, Squirrel45 said:

When looking at stats one years data points (world24) seems to lack depth & breath.

 

The upside of using WSSC match times is that this is the time from a single match and Classification uses an individual's best stages from multiple matches and isn't dependent on you actually shooting a GM time (whatever time that is) in a single match.

[Hoops]

1 minute ago, GKB said:

 

The upside of using WSSC match times is that this is the time from a single match and Classification uses an individual's best stages from multiple matches and isn't dependent on you actually shooting a GM time (whatever time that is) in a single match.

Steelrankings doesn’t show each stage so that could also be an issue.  

[bigdawgbeav]

so if my current personal bests don't change here are the new numbers for me:

 

PCCI - 91% (currently 101%)

PCCO - 85%

RFRO - 86%

RFRI - 78%

RFPO - 76%

[Hoops]

4 minutes ago, bigdawgbeav said:

so if my current personal bests don't change here are the new numbers for me:

 

PCCI - 91% (currently 101%)

PCCO - 85%

RFRO - 86%

RFRI - 78%

RFPO - 76%

Are any personal bests from 2022 or did you factor that in?

[jrdoran]

15 minutes ago, bigdawgbeav said:

so if my current personal bests don't change here are the new numbers for me:

PCCI - 91% (currently 101%)

Did that include your 4 stages that would roll off due to criteria of 2025 - 2 years ?   You have several stages that are 2022 personal bests in PCCI and you would need to then fall back to you next best stage times.  It is certainly possible those could be very close, but my double check of you math appears you ONLY did the simple PST time change and did not consider the atrophy of current - 2 years. 

Edited July 15 by jrdoran

[Darqusoull13]

On 7/14/2024 at 8:02 AM, shred said:

The stages haven't changed, equipment hasn't changed much, all it is is a few people have gotten much better at muscle memory.  Nobody even seems very clear if 'GM' is supposed to be the top 5% of shooters or the top 5% skill level or what, but keep raising the bar because of what somebody else did and watch people not come back.

 

This is spot on and a big reason I'm considering stepping away from USPSA and SCSA. Seeing changes like this and seeing friends that I helped and coached get discouraged is something I take pretty personally. They were at 94.9% before the changes. Stuff like this is not helping or growing the sport.

There were so many things I would have liked to have seen in the last BOD notes. This was firmly in the "Doesn't help the average member" bin. 

@Zack Jones has there been a public discussion on why the times were changed? 

[shred]

6 hours ago, GKB said:

 

The upside of using WSSC match times is that this is the time from a single match and Classification uses an individual's best stages from multiple matches and isn't dependent on you actually shooting a GM time (whatever time that is) in a single match.

 

Did one person win every stage at the WSSC or is using the 'top times' for every stage comparing against a non-existent "perfect" shooter?  At the old SC in California it was common for top shooters that blew out from the race for overall to swing for the fences on every stage after that trying to score some of the stage cash or set a record.  That would skew scores a little.

 

 

[bigdawgbeav]

On 7/15/2024 at 4:12 PM, Hoops said:

Are any personal bests from 2022 or did you factor that in?

Just simply what my current numbers are in my Match Tracker app which is backed up with the SCSA website.  I only went with current numbers and didn't care to recalculate for scores that drop or whatever.  Simply making a point.  Jeez...

Edited July 16 by bigdawgbeav

[Hoops]

1 hour ago, bigdawgbeav said:

Just simply what my current numbers are in my Match Tracker app.

You may want to look at your classification in the SCSA website.  Scroll down to display all stages and look at dates that are flagged.  Any flagged for 2022 will drop off Jan 2025.  

[zzt]

After 2022 drop offs were mentioned, I checked my Classification record.  I'll lose 7 times in Open, and 3 each in RFPO, RFRO and PCCO.  That, coupled with the large decreases in peak times will drop me back a Class in each Division.   Hmmm.

[Hoops]

14 hours ago, shred said:

 

Did one person win every stage at the WSSC or is using the 'top times' for every stage comparing against a non-existent "perfect" shooter?  At the old SC in California it was common for top shooters that blew out from the race for overall to swing for the fences on every stage after that trying to score some of the stage cash or set a record.  That would skew scores a little.

 

 

I copied the 2024 WSSC to excel.  RFRO example.  I ran a straight average of total time >=95% and came up with 64.08.  I then did the same average for each stage and the sun of stages very close to the 64.08.  I could not replicate the 63.57 (or the individual stage times) shown as new PST for RFRO.

 

Using previous years methodology of 95% to 110%, the number is 65.92.

 

What is interesting is that under both methods, Outer Limits actually went up.  11.25 and 11.41 seconds.  Current peak time is 10.75.  Showdown and Smoke and Hope have similar oddities.

 
Maybe someone can check my math?  Maybe @Zack Jones has already caught this if there is a glitch.  

[Hoops]

1 hour ago, zzt said:

After 2022 drop offs were mentioned, I checked my Classification record.  I'll lose 7 times in Open, and 3 each in RFPO, RFRO and PCCO.  That, coupled with the large decreases in peak times will drop me back a Class in each Division.   Hmmm.

IMO there has been a disconnect between the effect of dropping years combined with changing peak times.  The impact to shooters can be disproportionate to their actual skill decline, especially with age.  It is not a linear progression.  

[GKB]

1 hour ago, Hoops said:

the effect of dropping years

 

It's all about "What have you done lately?"

 

However, you keep your current Classification. 

 

You just have to put up recent (last 2 years) scores in order to advance to the next level.  Are you really making the next level if you are relying on a score that you haven't been able to shoot in more than 3 years?

[zzt]

59 minutes ago, GKB said:

However, you keep your current Classification. 

 

Big deal.  An A is meaningless if you cannot meet current standards for the class, or you can't shoot your way back into it.

[Hoops]

Has anyone looked at WSSC, specifically for my RFRO example to try to match up numbers in the new PST’s?  

[joseywales]

2 hours ago, Hoops said:

Has anyone looked at WSSC, specifically for my RFRO example to try to match up numbers in the new PST’s?  

Yes, I did.  New PST matches up with =ROUND(AVERAGE(Axx:Axxx),2) averaging formula using times > 95%.

[Hoops]

44 minutes ago, joseywales said:

Yes, I did.  New PST matches up with =ROUND(AVERAGE(Axx:Axxx),2) averaging formula using times > 95%.

Thanks.  Did you happen to look at each stage as well?  
 

When I get a chance tonight I’ll double check my average again.  

[Hoops]

17 hours ago, joseywales said:

Yes, I did.  New PST matches up with =ROUND(AVERAGE(Axx:Axxx),2) averaging formula using times > 95%.

This is a mute point at this time, but the only way I cam close to the match was stopping short of 95%.   Also, when I did the same average by stage, I could not get a match.  Outer Limits especially looks odd.   But like I said, this is going thru as is.

 

Thanks for running your formula.