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still no powder


triplesinglestack

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I hear you. December of 2012 / Jan 2013 was when I was going to get into reloading. Sandy Hook happened, powder disappeared (along with everything else). Everything else came back, and I've been telling myself, "As soon as powder becomes kind of available, I'll get into reloading." 2 years and still waiting.

My guess is that most of the major powder companies figured, "Yeah, but if we invest in increased powder production, in X years everything will be back to normal, and we'll be left holding the bag, because we need X + Y years to get a decent ROI". Maybe they were wrong, and X & Y were .5, they're kicking themselves, but afraid that "normal" levels of demand are still just around the corner. Maybe X & Y are 3, and so they're still thinking they made a great decision.

I don't know the economics of the industry. Maybe there's tons of money dying to invest in the space, but there's too much government regulation. Maybe there's someone tooling up right now to start making the next great powder by the metric ton, and they'll make a killing because everyone else is too conservative and / or too stupid. Maybe our sport is just so puny that the economics don't scale, so we'll always be an underserved market, having to get powder as a byproduct of companies mainly concerned about meeting military or LEO contracts. Maybe reloading is a dinosaur, soon to go extinct. There are a zillion variables.

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There was a fire at one of Hodgdon's factories, that much I know. As for the rest, yeah there's some attempts to avoid getting stuck with a glut, some of it being a tight credit market so it's hard to borrow $xx million to buy materials in anticipation of sales, some of it being market tied up from a decade of foreign wars, and a lot of it simply being demand from the biggest firearms sale boom in history coupled with higher round consumption shooting sports.

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I have been watching for 3n38 for over a year. Powder Valley had some last week and it was gone before I could even add it to my cart.

They had some 3n38 today, I was hoping for 3n37 tho. :angry2:

Was able to get an 8lber of HS-6 to try for 9mm major - would have grabbed more if I had any previous experience with it.

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