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New high caps after the sunset


KentG

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Im just curious if after the ban sunsets (keep your fingers crossed) will there be a easy supply of new High cap mags for all the wide body guns like STI/SVI? I dont own one, yet maybe, and it seems that one of the big issues for these guns is not only having mags that function but the cost which seems really high. Will ordering a few new mags for a Limited or Open gun even be as easy as ordering Wilson 47D's or 47T's??

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There will be an explosion of a decade of pent-up buying angst. I wouldn't be looking for too many bargains out of the chute. The prices will go down - eventually. Look hard at Caspian too. The Caspian frame points even more naturally for me than the S_I.

As always YMMV.

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The obvious changes will be new production complete mags from STI, SV, Caspian, and Para. Of those, only Caspian doesn't sell tubes right now. That means prices for complete mags won't change much if at all (and on the Caspians, who knows?).

More interesting...

Prices for used STI/SV mags will drop. Currently, they sell for very near the sum of the prices of the components, or about what you would expect if complete mags were legal. This is because there's a default assumption that used mags are legal, whereas if you buy the parts and assemble the mag you know you've broken the law. Once that legal distinction disappears, used mags will be discounted to a greater degree, maybe 20-25% instead of the 0-10% you usually see now, depending on condition and features.

Rescomp mags for STI/SV should be available. Depending on the exchange rate, these may be quite a bit cheaper than first-party mags. Their website shows 140's at $79 now, but I remember them being <$60 not long ago.

The possibility that strikes me as most significant is Mec-Gar producing mags for hi-cap frames. I bet they could turn out a reasonably functional and highly unit-to-unit consistent mag for $35 or so.

I have no doubt that hi-caps will be widely available and mass-produced once the AWB is history. The interesting question is pricing, but it's hard to nail down a prediction. Pent-up demand for mags and greater demand for hi-cap guns will push prices up, while expanded production, innovations in production, and competition will push prices down. My gut feeling is that once the dust settles, prices will be lower, and certainly no higher.

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What I'm *really* looking forward to is watching the value of my Post-ban AR going into the toilet. It'll be interesting to see how the market values a decade's worth of rifles.

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Eric,

Why would post-ban rifle prices drop much? Add a feature or two, and its value is the same as the pre-bans which people paid too much for over the last few years. I would guess the preban prices will take the big hit.

The MecGar 10 rounders work well for me; here's hoping for full capacity mags at budget prices. I heard a shooter comment that the S_I mags were never low cost, and that they probably never will be. We will see.

Lee (glad to have departed California)

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Yeah, S_I complete mags are available for LE and export. They aren't much, if any, cheaper than buying all the parts separately (note: don't do this). Glock mags .. now those should get cheap.

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Eric,

Why would post-ban rifle prices drop much?

The same reason people pay more Pre-64 Winchester *lever actions* (the pre-64 thing was ONLY applicable to the Model 70), think my all-matching # 1927 Luger is worth about ten cents, and will pay $600 for a Garand that fifteen years ago you picked willy-nilly of a 55 gallon drum full of Garands for $125 a whack. It's precisely the fact that it doesn't make sense that I expect the value of my post-ban to drop.

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Eric,

(the pre-64 thing was ONLY applicable to the Model 70)

Negative.

There are numerous differences between pre and post '64 Winchester leverguns. The big changes are a cast (vs. forged) carrier, extensive use of stamped parts throughout and a black oxide finish on the receiver guaranteed to come off the first time you take your rifle in the field.

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Actually, I'm thinking the "post-ban/pre-sunset" guns might be worth MORE in the future, since they will have been made for a limited 10 year run under interesting political circumstances.

:)

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What amazes me is that, okay, a 17-round Glock 17 mag, in the factory package, sold for about $19.95 plus tax before September 1994. Then post-ban prices shot up to $100 in many cases. What I simply can't fathom is the people who, when we're sitting about five months away from brand new high cap G17 mags coming back on the market, are STILL paying $100 for old beaters. Don't they know, if they just wait a few months, they can get new mags for about 1/5th the price?

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What amazes me is that, okay, a 17-round Glock 17 mag, in the factory package, sold for about $19.95 plus tax before September 1994. Then post-ban prices shot up to $100 in many cases. What I simply can't fathom is the people who, when we're sitting about five months away from brand new high cap G17 mags coming back on the market, are STILL paying $100 for old beaters. Don't they know, if they just wait a few months, they can get new mags for about 1/5th the price?

Or, some idiot tacks on an extension to a bill the house and senate just HAVE to pass and the prices go up to $150.00 a mag in September.

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Has the ban impeded R&D for magazines at all?

I guess followers, springs, and basepads have been designed and redesigned, and we've seen improvements there. Is there any room for improvements to magazine tubes that couldn't be pursued because of the ban?

DD

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Duane,

My observation is that prices are already falling, and many individuals and firms are hemorrhaging pre-bans.

In any market, different actors will have different perceptions. It may be clear to you that we're on the threshold of super-cheap hi-caps, and it may be equally clear to someone else that an AWB renewal is a foregone conclusion and now is the time to invest. Entrepreneurship is all about exploiting information assymetries.

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Taking advantage of people who aren't smart enough to realize that super-cheap high-caps are just around the corner, to soak them for high prices while they still can, to me equals "taking advantage of human frailty," i.e. the buyers' lack of knowledge and/or insight.

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