So...uhmmm, Who's 100% In Revolver?

[Liota]

Okay, If these are Jerry Miculek's classifications, then who the heck is 100% in revolver? and why is he at a lower percentage for revolver than he is for open? Help! I'm confused. Doesn't he always win revolver division????

OPEN Class: GM Current Pct: 96.079 High Percent: 97.314

LIMITED Class: M Current Pct: 89.345 High Percent: 89.345

LIMITED10 Class: U Current Pct: 0.000 High Percent: 0.000

PRODUCTION Class: U Current Pct: 0.000 High Percent: 0.000

REVOLVER Class: GM Current Pct: 95.633 High Percent: 95.633

Liota

[Rufus The Bum]

Yes, he wins everywhere he shoots, he's bludgened me senseless with his 625 on many occasions. If I'm not mistaken, isn't revolver scored as a perentage of Limited or Limited 10?

[Ron Ankeny]

What's to be confused about? Jerry has 100% at the 2002 FGN. Another 100% at the 2003 FGN. Yet another 100% at Area 4. A 78.03% on CM99-11 and 82.53% on CM99-60. That all averages out to 95.633%. In fact, had USPSA not waived the 3 GM requirement for major matches Jerry probably wouldn't even be classified. He has a higher percentage in Open becuse his scores are higher.

BTW, there are no 100% shooters in Open or Limited 10 either.

[blkbrd]

BTW, there are no 100% shooters in Open or Limited 10 either.

Why is this, Jerry is by far the best out there and he is the standard.

Why is the scale not changed so someone is always the goal at 100%.

[Ron Ankeny]

It's all explained on the USPSA Web site under classifier administration. High hit factors for revolver are simply a percentage of Limited hit factors. The same is true of Production. Jerry Miculek has only posted two classifiers and the balance of his classification is based on wins at major matches.

Miculek dominates revolver division, and in my view he is perhaps the greatest revolver shooter of all times. However, he doesn't make a habit of shooting classifiers. The benchmarks for actual revolver classifiers are pretty much being set by Richard Bitow.

[Liota]

Thanks for the information, guys, but I think I will leave that particular can of worms alone. Should have done a search first, but it just struck me as odd.

After reading the USPSA website's section on figuring classifications, using a person's high hit factor, I believe, would be a statistical and fiscal nightmare. Classifications and percentages would change on a monthly basis. It would be manpower intensive.

Liota

[Wakal]

Or a database with a cascade update feature...with enough horsepower, it would work...maybe...

Alex

[dajarrel]

Forgive me for being dense, but there has to be a standard against which everyone is measured. What is it? If revolver is based on limited hit factors, what is the mythical example that limited is held to?

mine is not a complaint, just a lack of understanding.

Thanks,

Dennis

[Ron Ankeny]

Dennis:

The folks at Sedro Wooley tell me Limited and Open divisions both have a huge database of classifiers scores. They take the top scores and more or less do their statistical magic on them to come up with a high hit factor. I don't know if they simply average the highest scores or they do a more complex statisital analysis. Classes are then determined on the basis of percentages of the high hit factors. In theory, the high hit factors are examined periodically to ensure they are still valid. The same is true of Open. Limited 10 hit factors are set the same as Limited because the only difference is magazine capacity and the majority of classifiers are 10 round friendly.

From a test and measurements perspective, the system is valid for Open, Limited, and Limited 10 shooters, but there are questions of reliability. That is, do classifiers really measure what they are intended to measure? In my view, classifiers are a very good indicator of performance on standards and speed shoots, but they really don't indicate how a person would do at a match consisting of field courses. As an arthritic, fat, middle aged shooter, I do well on speed shoots, classifiers, and standards, but I am not very good on field courses with a lot of movement. OTOH, guys who dominate field courses, standards, and speed shoots should also do very well on classifiers.

Where problems arise for revolver shooters (and Production) is they don't have their own database of scores because the divisions are new. Production hit factors were set 5 per cent lower than Limited to allow for equipment and minor scoring. USPSA had to start somewhere. The division is fairly popular and there should be a great database of scores in just a few more years. At that time USPSA will be able to adjust the hit factors accordingly if they see a reason to do so.

Revolver classifer hit factors were set 10 percent lower than Limited. Again, USPSA had to start somewhere. But there is such a huge difference in equipment that simply adding the 10 percent "cushion" isn't realistic. For instance, some classifiers will force a revolver shooter into a standing reload where no reload is required for a 10 round pistol. In those cases, the revolver shooter is screwed. On those classifiers that have mandatory reloads, the score ends up being all about the reload, lol. Then we have those classifiers that have 6 shot strings or only 6 rounds required. On those classifiers where no reload is required the 10% difference between limited and revolver is too much because the only difference in times are splits and transitions. Obviously, revolver division really needs a database of scores in order to determine realistic hit factors but where are those scores going to come from? Frankly, I think USPSA should ask a couple of guys like Jerry M. and Richard B. to just set the high hit factor with pen and paper. It would be better than what they have now.

[dajarrel]

Ron,

Thanks for the reply. I didn't know the 5% and 10% points that were set for the HHF's.

I am a 'C' class in both limited and revolver. I have decided, at least through the spring of next year to concentrate on improving my skills at revolver.

Thanks again,

Dennis

[professor]

Ron, if you do the math, Jerry's 5 classifiers average to 92.11%. What Sedro Woolley did to come up with 95.633% was to code Jerry's 78.03% score as a "F" classifier the month after the FGNs, so that the average of three 100% scores plus the 82.53% produced the 95.633% that is posted, and justified the GM ranking they had him listed at for this year's FGNs. (He was still listed with only 3 classifier scores and was unclassified in the last posting before the 2003 FGN).

The following month, the "F" code was changed back to a "Y", but no recalculation of the current high percentage was done. This procedure doesn't follow the classifier rules, but I think it was done because it was beginning to look silly for him to be Unclassified, or even classified as "only" Master in revolver.

If he had been classified on the basis of his two classifiers and the two 100% scores (from the 2002 Nationals and the 2003 Area 4), his initial classifier score would have been 90.459%, placing him between you and Rich Bitow on the Master Revolver Top 20 list. But then, his 2003 FGN win would only move his percentage up to 92.17%, about 1% higher than Rich's 91.02%. And it would take another two 100% scores to push him over the 95% level into GM.

Re the HHFs in Revolver and Production: the HHFs for revolver and production divisions were discussed at the last USPSA BOD meeting. Additional statistical evaluation of the HHFs for those divisions are underway (or shortly will be). After 5 years of shooting the CM99 series of classifiers, there should be sufficient data to reset the HHFs to achievable levels.

[Ron Ankeny]

I ain't gonna hold my breath on USPSA revising the revolver hit factors. I would like to know how the heck they are going to come up with realistic figures with only a half a dozen guys shooting classifiers at the upper end.

[Duane Thomas]

Miculek dominates revolver division, and in my view he is perhaps the greatest revolver shooter of all times. However, he doesn't make a habit of shooting classifiers.

I can only repeat what I was told by Michael Voigt. As USPSA President, I think he would know. According to Voigt, it's not that Jerry doesn't shoot classifiers but that USPSA HQ has made the decision to not enter his scores into the data base because they're so high they'd discourage anyone else from shooting Revolver. According to Voigt, if they entered Jerry's classifiers into the system, the next highest ranked revolver shooter in USPSA would be a B-class shooter. Personally, I didn't see how that could be the case. No matter how great Jerry's scores are, they'd get diluted by other shooters once the top scores are averaged. And I said that to Voigt. His reply: "You don't understand. Jerry's scores are PHENOMENAL. Jerry's scores are UNBELIEVABLE."

[Flexmoney]

Duane, Where you talking to MV while in a bar?

Seriously, if Jerry's scores are the standard, then let that be the standard...it has to be better than what we now have. Tagging the Revolver high hit factors to 90% of Limited is a joke. As Ron has said...that make some waaay easy and others waaaay hard.

Revolver is all about the reloads...90% of Limtited doesn't address that.

[Ron Ankeny]

Duane:

I don't travel in the circles that you have access to so I'll defer to you. Obviously Voigt would know. Thanks for setting me straight. Knowing that I don't know is better than not knowing.

I think you are correct that after Jerry's scores were averaged with the other top scores everything would shake out in the end. OTOH, if his scores are really way out of sight they should be eliminated to prevent skewed results. Then again, with all due respect to other revolver shooters, maybe Jerry is indeed the only one worthy of GM and there are no Masters playing the game. I could live with that.

Heck, I don't have the solution. I would think a stats guru could figure out the mean for all shooters and work both directions from there to come up with a better system than we have now.

[Liota]

Duane, Where you talking to MV while in a bar?

Seriously, if Jeery's scores are the standard, then let that be the standard...it has to be better than what we now have. Tagging the Revolver high hit factors to 90% of Limited is a joke. As Ron has said...that make some waaay easy and others waaaay hard.

Revolver is all about the reloads...90% of Limtited doesn't address that.

Flex,

You're my hero! That is exactly the problem I have with the revolver classification. If Jerry is the standard, then so be it. The argument that Jerry's classifiers shouldn't be put in because they might discourage other shooters is absurd. It would be like them not putting in TGO's classifiers for the same reason. If a person wants to play revolver, he should go talk to Jerry and practice a lot. Jerry strikes me as a natural shooter, but he still practices a lot. Nevermind that he is quite a nice guy.

Liota

[Duane Thomas]

Duane, Where you talking to MV while in a bar?

Factory Nats '02, actually.

[Ron Ankeny]

I took a few minutes to check the revolver division match points and percentages at a few major matches over the last couple of years and I have a new found respect for Jerry.

I don't have the results of my little research project in front of me but I can come close. In 2002 (could have it reversed with 2003) Jerry finished first at the FGN for a score of 100%. The next closest finisher was around 20 percent behind Jerry and thrid place was something like 23% behind. In 2003 (or was it 2002) Jerry again had 100% with the second and third place finishers at around 75% for a 25% gap. None of the other divisions have such a disparity in scores.

From a statistical perspective the inclusion of Jerry's scores in the classifier database would skew the results, I think the term is kurtosis, a leptokurtic peak to be exact. It's been a long time since I took a stats class. If we assume that Jerry's classifiers in comparison to other shooters would reflect a similar disparity as seen at matches, then Jerry would indeed be the only GM shooter and the next highest shooter would be a B class shooter. Further more, the current A class shooters would drop to C and D class. Obviously, USPSA has made the right decision in not including Jerry's scores in the database at this time. Or maybe USPSA revolver shooters just suck?

[spook]

I don't think USPSA revo shooters suck. I think the there are a lot of very competent revolver shooters out there (in the whole world). It's just a matter of time before they get out there and do their thing.

I attended the Chzech Nationals this year. On the list was 2001 European champion Gunther Knaus. He was fifth and I was 6th and only 0,3% behind him on my first level 3 match! The winner was Herman Kirchweger (a favourite for next years' EC) and 2nd place had 93%. So this means that you can become Euro champ in the first year a division exists and be an 90% guy two years later, because of "new" shooters.

This is what's happening in revolver div. Guys like Jerry are incredible. But Jerry didn't win every stage when he attended the WS. New shooters will rise. Shooters who have the goal to become World Champion. I'd say, let Jerry's scores count on (inter)national classifiers. It would stimulate me to work harder and become a better shooter.

[Ron Ankeny]

I was joking about USPSA revolver shooters "sucking". I think it's ok to average Jerry's scores in with the other scores, but what scores do you use? Just how low would you go before you draw the line and say, "..that's it no more scores will be averaged?" The database just isn't big enough. If we just take Jerry's scores by themselves, well...I already addressed that.

If revolver division continues to grow, we will someday have a new breed of wheel gunners and all of this will work itself out. Hmmm...the more I ponder this the more I see where USPSA staff are really between the rock and hard spot.

[spook]

Ron, I knew you were joking.

We use the international classifier system. It's fairly new (2 years I think).

Just how low would you go before you draw the line and say, "..that's it no more scores will be averaged?"

As long as we can prove that Jerry is human, I wouldn't exclude his scores. What one man can do, another can do.

[Patrick Sweeney]

Ron, I knew you were joking.

We use the international classifier system. It's fairly new (2 years I think).

Just how low would you go before you draw the line and say, "..that's it no more scores will be averaged?"

As long as we can prove that Jerry is human, I wouldn't exclude his scores. What one man can do, another can do.

"What one man can do, another can do."

I think we can put that in the "wishful thinking" category when it comes to Jerry and wheelgunning. Yes, we can rise to the occasion and beat him now and then. Rich Bitow has done it, Rudy has done it, heck even I've done it. But one stage does not a match make. And one run on a classifier does not stand if Jerry doesn't want it to.

It is hard enough to get people to shoot revolver. Imagine the fun you'd have after a new hotshot wheelgunner smokes a classifier. You look up his factor vs. Jerry's best, and tell him; "Smokin' run kid. You just broke into the bottom of "B" class." He'll be down at the local gun shop Monday morning shopping for a Production or Lim 10 gun.

Those of us close enough to Jerry to see the gap aren't crushed by the knowledge. Let everyone else keep their illusions.

And some classifiers are indeed much tougher with a revovler than others. Perhaps a little adjustment on those particular stages, to re-set a new Revolver 100% is in order.

[Ron Ankeny]

Patrick:

I have been waiting for you to wade in on this discussion. As usual, you nailed it. Thanks.

[Flexmoney]

Well...I wonder.

Jerry is one of THE big dogs. No offense to the next 10 revolver guys in rankings behind him...but, at this game, he is now alone. There is no TGO, Burner, and Todd Jarrett to battle it out with in Revolver.

And, his match percentages will be skewed as well. Those aren't a great standard of comparison. If you look at anybody's match percentage (other than the winner), it is usually low...when compared to their classification percentage. That comes from being compared (in the match) to ONLY the 100% shooter. Meanwhile, when shooting classifers, the high hit factor is an average of the TOP 10 scores.

And, if you have a shooter that dominates...that wins most of the stages (Jerry in Revolver, TGO in Single-Stack Classic)...that shooters will get a pile of the match points. There isn't much sharing of the stage wins...and all of the stage points. This further skews the "match classifications".

[shred]

How about keeping Jerry's scores, but averaging in the next two or three best scores to get 100%? We all realize that the top GM's in the other divisions can break 100% on classifiers as desired, so why not for Revo? Isn't that how Classifier HHFs are supposed to be set??