2024 Steel Challenge Rankings Projection

[jrdoran]

I put together with help a forward looking 2024 SC Rankings page    --->     http://steelrankings.com/

 

- Uses Future 2024 Peak Stage Times:  https://myenos.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/peaktimes.html

- Rolls off 2021 matches as eligible for current classification ( Only stages shot in the current or previous two calendar years are used for classification.)

- Excludes where USPSA membership expired ( as of 12/15/2023 ) 

 

If anyone finds an issue or has questions, don't hesitate to post/email;  I'm sure I missed something somewhere;   This was quite complicated and involved many 100,000s of rows of data to sort through what stages remained after 2021, who had > 4 stages remaining after exclusions, and of course recalc with new PST.

 

Some of you got a big jump for free as other shooters lost their best stages !!

 

@bravobravo @GKB @Hoops

Edited December 15, 2023 by jrdoran

[GKB]

RFRO goes from 4,534 qualified shooters to 3,930 with the 2021 scores being dropped.  13.3% of the overall shooters had their scores expire.

 

My personal placing (as an "A") goes from #794 (top 17.51%) to #693 (17.63%) in RFRO as a result.  Of course, the lower down you are in the ladder, the more holes will be created to push your position upward.

 

The fact that my percentage position drops a bit says that more people expired behind me than above in the relative rankings.  Gives me a prediction (before I pull the numbers to compare) that the number of D/C/B shooters expiring will be more, relatively, than the GM/M class.  Have to see how A does.  That will say something about the sport.

 

My actual classification percentage only drops from 80.75% to 80.46% with the 2024 PST.  (But RFRO is only decreasing 0.25 sec.)

Edited December 15, 2023 by GKB

[Squirrel45]

Awesome work will definitely look ok though this later

[apoc4lypse]

Great info.  But it does seem like the 2024 peak times might be off, at least for CO.  In CO I am now classified for SC-102, SC-103, SC-105, and SC-106, which totals 43.5s under the 2024 peak times per your table, but it is calculating against 42.5s in the rankings.  

[jrdoran]

3 hours ago, apoc4lypse said:

Great info.  But it does seem like the 2024 peak times might be off, at least for CO.  In CO I am now classified for SC-102, SC-103, SC-105, and SC-106, which totals 43.5s under the 2024 peak times per your table, but it is calculating against 42.5s in the rankings.  

 

James you are spot on.  Great Catch. Thank you.  It went from 42.5 --> 43.5 on the PST for the stages remaining on your CO / 2024;

Actually I had several individual stages wrong in my code for 2024 PST ( I had totals correct, but individual stages were incorrect ) This is an issue when a shooter has < 8 stages left in 2024;  I fixed and will re-run the whole recalc for everyone.

 

For reference Here is what I found in my log for your CO in 2024 after stage expirations:   

These PST for some stages were incorrect on my part.  Confirms what your posted.

SCSA Link:  https://scsa.org/classification/A125509/all
USPSA NAME:    James D 
Division: Carry Optics
Stage: SC-102, Total Time: 16.27
Stage: SC-103, Total Time: 12.33
Stage: SC-105, Total Time: 13.82
Stage: SC-106, Total Time: 16.28
Present Stages:
SC-102
SC-103
SC-105
SC-106
Missing Stages:
SC-101
The PST value for SC-101 in CO is: 13.0
SC-104
The PST value for SC-104 in CO is: 14.0
SC-107
The PST value for SC-107 in CO is: 13.0
SC-108
The PST value for SC-108 in CO is: 10.0
total time missing stages =  50.0
count of present stages 4
count of missing stages 4
Total shooter time for  Carry Optics : 58.7
total 2024 peaktime  92.5
new adjusted total PST for this shooter  42.5
percent % = 72.4

 

Here is your updated 2024 with the correct adjusted PST.     

Present Stages:
                SC-102
                SC-103
                SC-105
                SC-106
        Missing Stages:
                SC-101
        The PST value for SC-101 in CO is: 12.5
                SC-104
        The PST value for SC-104 in CO is: 13.75
                SC-107
        The PST value for SC-107 in CO is: 13.0
                SC-108
        The PST value for SC-108 in CO is: 9.75
        total time missing stages =  49.0
        count of present stages 4
        count of missing stages 4
        Total shooter time for  Carry Optics : 58.7
        total 2024 peaktime  92.5
        new adjusted total PST for this shooter  43.5
        percent % = 74.1

 

FYI your USPSA membership expires  Jan 29, 2024. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by jrdoran

[CClassForLife]

People with first or last names that are 2 characters or shorter?

[jrdoran]

1 hour ago, CClassForLife said:

People with first or last names that are 2 characters or shorter?

Could you elaborate on what you are referring too ?  @CClassForLife

[CClassForLife]

4 hours ago, jrdoran said:

Could you elaborate on what you are referring too ?  @CClassForLife

 

Might not be a problem. I think some names for Practiscore competitor were having issues when they were 2 characters or less. L3950 for example.

[jrdoran]

https://scsa.org/classification/L3950 has no current classifications.  

Definitely not a problem for my ranking one way or another.   Thanks.

[texasdawg]

 Thanks for the info and hard work,,, just getting back into steel challenge and this is good info for me,,,

[jrdoran]

2023 vs 2024 Rank Difference;  

 

working on a prototype to show you without all the hurdles of (2) different data rankings, how your ranking changes up/down from year to year;   Before I get too deep into this, I'd be interested in feedback if useful; 

 

Here are the top 20 Carry Optics and there year to year Rank Difference.  

 

[GKB]

I'm not sure how useful that is for the one-off of change of year. 

 

I could see putting a column of "Prior End of Year Postion #xxx" where you could see through the year where you are in relation to your finish of the prior year.

 

Now, on a week-by-week basis, this would be fascinating.  I know somebody was interested in seeing who were the top risers (having their relative ranking go up) for a given time.

[GKB]

So here's a procedural question (that probably won't impact me, but might).

 

My club will shoot 2 matches in late December (both on 30 Dec).  These results don't get calculated by SCSA until the following Wednesday (03 Jan).  That is also the same day the new PSTs go into effect. 

 

Do those results get calculated (for anybody that might go up a Classification) using the 2023 or 2024 PST?

 

They were shot in 2023, but the BOD minutes say "New PST values will be used starting 03 Jan 2024".   Used for matches shot on 03 Jan and after or used to calculate anything shot from 27 December (last Wed of 2023) and after?

[schmidtg]

11 hours ago, GKB said:

Do those results get calculated (for anybody that might go up a Classification) using the 2023 or 2024 PST?

Could go either way.  I don't think they specified whether the classification run on Wednesday January 3rd will use 2023 or 2024 PSTs.

 

We shall see.

[jrdoran]

Christmas week downtime: 

 

I added a new set of "reports" that lists by division the biggest gainers / losers in rankings when comparing 2023 vs 2024. 

I haven't added search yet, but you can scroll or use CTRL F or Command F ( Mac ) to find your USPSA # ; 

Questions / Comments / Bug Reports are encouraged !

 

Here   --->     http://steelrankings.com/

 

Sample: 

Edited December 29, 2023 by jrdoran

[schmidtg]

It looks like these deltas might be calculated in a buggy way for shooters with stages from 2021 that will fall off in Jan 2024.

 

For instance, the analysis says that @CClassForLife will go down in by over 3000 places in 2024, but I ran the calculation manually and it looks like his classification percentage will increase next month from 85% to over 86% even when accounting for the new peak times.

[jrdoran]

31 minutes ago, schmidtg said:

It looks like these deltas might be calculated in a buggy way for shooters with stages from 2021 that will fall off in Jan 2024.

 

For instance, the analysis says that @CClassForLife will go down in by over 3000 places in 2024, but I ran the calculation manually and it looks like his classification percentage will increase next month from 85% to over 86% even when accounting for the new peak times.

 

I'm assuming we are talking about A121170;  CO percentage 2023 currently = 85.11% and rank = 198

He has all 8 stages eligible in his computation.  @schmidtg

 

Here is my 2024 log on A121170.   Tell me where we differ. Entirely possible I screwed something up.  Remember that all stage results from 2020 and 2021 are being excluded in 2024.  

 

For 2024 I am computing:  

 NAME:    Tony W  [0m

uspsa number A121170

Division: Carry Optics

Stage: SC-101, Total Time: 95.80

Stage: SC-103, Total Time: 10.78

Stage: SC-105, Total Time: 11.73

Stage: SC-106, Total Time: 16.88

Stage: SC-107, Total Time: 14.85

Present Stages:

SC-101

SC-103

SC-105

SC-106

SC-107

 

Missing Stages:

SC-102

The PST value for SC-102 in CO is: 9.75

SC-104

The PST value for SC-104 in CO is: 13.75

SC-108

The PST value for SC-108 in CO is: 9.75

Total time missing stages =  33.25

 

count of present stages 5

count of missing stages 3 ( total  9.75+13.75+9.75)= 33.25

Total shooter time for  Carry Optics ( 5 stages ) : 150.04

Official 8 stage Total 2024 peaktime  92.5

new adjusted total PST for this shooter  59.25

percent % =  59.25/150.04= 39.48%

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by jrdoran

[schmidtg]

2 minutes ago, jrdoran said:

Could you give me his USPSA & Division and I'll dive into it.   Sometimes there are cases where rolling off a 2001 bad performance can really help.  I've seen it.   

https://scsa.org/classification/A121170

Division: CO

[schmidtg]

Ah, my mistake - it looks like his score on Roundabout will go from 12.54 seconds to 120.00 seconds.  So the calculation is correct (I thought that all scores on that stage are dropped the moment the best run is dropped, but it still retains the newer scores even if they are lower than the best in previous calendar years).

Edited December 29, 2023 by schmidtg

[jrdoran]

26 minutes ago, schmidtg said:

Ah, my mistake - it looks like his score on Roundabout will go from 12.54 seconds to 120.00 seconds.  So the calculation is correct (I thought that all scores on that stage are dropped the moment the best run is dropped, but it still retains the newer scores even if they are lower than the best in previous calendar years).

All Good;  thank you for taking the time to play around and hopefully you got some enjoyment. Keep the questions coming.

[GKB]

So, I noticed people whose 2024 Classification percentage goes UP.

 

My only explanation for this (it's 6:30am where I am and coffee is still being made) is that they had a bad stage(s) from 2021 being dropped and hadn't shot it since, so it's absence actually increased their calculation.

 

Example, last record in RFRO going up from 53.2% to 64.31% but the PST goes down from 61 to 35.25.

 

@jrdoran Do you have logic to drop people if they have less than 4 eligible stages (the minimum to be classified)?

[jrdoran]

44 minutes ago, GKB said:

So, I noticed people whose 2024 Classification percentage goes UP.

 

My only explanation for this (it's 6:30am where I am and coffee is still being made) is that they had a bad stage(s) from 2021 being dropped and hadn't shot it since, so it's absence actually increased their calculation.

 

Example, last record in RFRO going up from 53.2% to 64.31% but the PST goes down from 61 to 35.25.

 

@jrdoran Do you have logic to drop people if they have less than 4 eligible stages (the minimum to be classified)?

Your assumption is correct on the scenario of when people increase their classification and yes, I drop people from classification if <4 eligible stages.   In-Eligible stages can also be scenarios of 120s or 90s.  

[Hoops]

2 hours ago, jrdoran said:

Your assumption is correct on the scenario of when people increase their classification and yes, I drop people from classification if <4 eligible stages.   In-Eligible stages can also be scenarios of 120s or 90s.  

This is interesting to me.  Dropping bad year and classification could go up….dropping good year and percentage and really, classification goes down.  But who is the better performer?  Another unintended consequences?

[GKB]

2 hours ago, Hoops said:

But who is the better performer?  Another unintended consequences?

 

I don't think it is unintended.  It's just the way the formula works.

 

No worse than somebody who makes A/M/GM and has never shot OUTER LIMITS or SPEED OPTION.  Doesn't mean they are gaming the system, it's just the way it works out for their situation.

[Hoops]

41 minutes ago, GKB said:

 

I don't think it is unintended.  It's just the way the formula works.

 

No worse than somebody who makes A/M/GM and has never shot OUTER LIMITS or SPEED OPTION.  Doesn't mean they are gaming the system, it's just the way it works out for their situation.

I agree.  No gaming.  Just how it works.  

 

My understanding when the 2yr/current year was initially discussed, there was talk about having the classification’s change up or down.  That thought was abandoned and left as USPSA….no changing/lowering class.