Teotwawki?

[bgary]

I spent some of my morning today on conference calls, so I worked from home (hey, saved 10 bucks worth of gas). I had CNN on "mute" as I worked, and... the stream of images coming in from New Orleans is just astonishing. I mean, I was *in* that convention center a couple of months ago for a conference that was full of high-dollar software solution providers with their glitzy displays and all. Now it is full of people who have nowhere to go, and nothing but what they carried.

I lived in a suburb of LA when the Rodney King riots happened. What started out as a relatively small and localized event, escalated *very* rapidly and spread throughout a fairly large geographic area. I lived in a "nice" area (Redondo Beach), but it was still close enough to things that I had to drive thru riot areas to get home, the looters had already been thru most of the businesses on the way, the gas stations were either closed or burning.... and the grocery stores were empty. Thanks, in part, to the fact that the rioters kicked the crap out of a truck driver, the trucks did not come back into the area for weeks.... so all those people in the "nice areas" that assumed they would always be able to get everything they needed, were somewhat shocked to find that grocery stores generally only have a day or two worth of stock, and if the supply dries up, the shelves get empty pretty quickly. By the end of the day, not only were the stores empty, but the power was out and the water was suspect.

(ObNote: I used to be a boy scout, and have always had this wierd priority about being able to "take care of myself", which got fine-tuned when, while living in Virginia, we got to "enjoy" Hurricane Agnes in the early 70s So... I had a couple weeks worth of food in my garage, as a matter of habit, I had containers I could (and did) load a bunch of fresh water into, I had a generator and enough stored gas to make it useful, I had a "hunker down" plan and I had a "bug out" plan. Until the riots, my neighbors thought I was a little weird. When I started feeding them from my stocks of spaghetti and mac-and-cheese and other things that store really nicely and heat up really well on a propane camp stove... some of them had a little different perspective. Perhaps the tasty margaritas from my 12v blender tipped the balance

In the case of those riots, "order" was restored fairly quickly. I mean, I had to drive past National Guard troops in APCs to get in and out of my neighborhood, but even that settled out in a week or so, and the only real "lingering" effect was that a bunch of businesses got burned out. Yet.... that event had significant economic impact throughout the region for *months*.

(ObNote2: Part of the reason I moved from Los Angeles to "somewhere else" was directly related to those riots. It became all-too-clear that there were way too many people in way too small a place, most of them were pissed off at someone, and so the "balance" of civilization was veneer-thin. We decided that we were going to move somewhere where we were 1) not in a "big city" and 2) where people generally had more interest in self-reliance)

Flash forward to today. There are literally tens of thousands of homes which are underwater... and even when the water is gone, they may not be repairable - those homes might never be occupied again. There are thousands of businesses which are underwater, may well have had their shelves emptied on the way, and may never open again. There are hundreds (?) of thousands of people who are displaced, hungry, sick... and getting pissed.

This has all the ingredients to become a "Big Thing" - by that, I mean, it has the potential to affect the national economy for quite some time to come; it has the potential to affect the "balance of civilization" in that region for quite some time to come; and if it devolves into rioting or other violence, who knows what effects it will have. It is safe to say that it will be months, if not years, before that part of the country is "back to normal"... which makes me wonder what kind of changes we will all have to deal with in the interim.

Look at 9/11. Several thousand people died, and no one would diminish the tragedy therein. But... wrapped around that tragedy was the wholesale collapse of the leisure-travel industry, which led to crisis in the airline industry, which led to significant economic ripples that we are only now getting thru. Not to mention the war which was spawned by that attack.

Today on the news, I heard eerily similar things. Airlines are in crisis because the jet fuel is too expensive, or just flat not available. Shipping throughout the gulf is impacted, affecting the supply of goods. 10% of our domestic oil producing capacity is lost for some interderminate period of time. The region is going to require billions of dollars to recover, rebuild and restore normalcy, *after* the immediate crisis is over, which it isn't - last I heard, the water is still rising. I'm sitting 2500 miles away, and I can't help being torn between two thoughts - I'm heartbroken over the tragedy those families are going thru... and wondering what I can do to mitigate its effects on *my* family. I can't help but think there will be some.

Not sure why I am posting any of this, other than that it is in my head and I needed to get it out. From my perspective, my front-of-mind thoughts boil down to

-- praying - it is times like this that remind me that *I* am not truly in control. I pray for all those folks affected by this mess. I pray for a rapid recovery. I pray for our government, and that this mess will not affect our long-term economic viability or our position as a stable democratic leader in the world community.

-- protecting my family - that's my primary role on this planet, as far as I'm concerned. I want to make sure they are safe, sheltered and fed no matter what happens. Whether that's keeping food and water in the garage, or moving banked assets into more liquid and stable forms, or moving to "higher ground", I need to do what I can to give us the best chances possible.

-- preparing- have a plan, have options, have options on the options. The plan may include things as simple as "am I going to go to the match this weekend, or does it make more sense to save the gas money for a rainy day and *not* be 200 miles from home right now."; to "what happens if "the thin veneer of civilization" disappears in a town near me... can we outlast it? can we avoid it?

Sorry to sound so draconian, but.... it is just heavily on my mind that I can't, in good conscience, "bet" my family's future wellbeing on the premise that the government will "take care of everything" without it having any impact on us. I feel like *I* need to take care of us, first and foremost. I'd much rather have a plan and never need it, than... have people watching video of us sitting outside a refugee center. I'm not a "survivalist". I'm fer-sure not a "militia" kinda guy. I'm just a former Boy Scout, who wants to do the best I can to "be prepared".

B

("TEOTWAWKI", or "The End Of The World As We Know It", refers to an on-line novel available on the 'net several years back, which ended up getting published as "Patriots". It is ostensibly a novel about "the great collapse", but it also serves as a though-provoking primer about being more self-reliant. Some of it is pretty over-the-top, but it does make one think, especially if you have lived in the middle of a riot zone)

[EricW]

[Run n Gun]

Bruce,

I know EXACTLY what you mean; my thoughts have been similar to yours.

BTW, did you know that there’s a “TEOTWAWKI Too” (and no, that's not a typo)?

Ed

[Ron Ankeny]

Great post Bruce. If you have some spare time, take a look at www.firehouse.com for a view from a little different angle.

[Sam]

Yeah Bruce, life does seem kinda crazy sometimes. I think it's good to talk about our concerns and to plan for "eventualities" so that we don't become a burden to others.

A friend reminded me just the other day that "safety isn't found in the absence of danger, but rather in the presence of God." I've been in a bad spot a time or two in my life and that's still the most comforting thought in the world to me.

Knowing.....there is nothing like knowing....

[lmccrock]

I had jury duty once with the author of TEOTWAWKI. Interesting guy. Raised yaks. No kidding.

Ever since Hurricane Betsy in '65, I have respected them. Our power was off for a few days. Our frig was hooked to a neighbor's generator. A fews weeks later, we went to a home in Arabi and adopted a puppy from a family who had evacuated the whole litter and parent dogs in a rowboat. Their house had a water line about 3 feet up the siding. Considering it was a raised floor house, that means about 5-6 feet of water.

By the way, that part of town is St Bernard Parish, which was completely flooded this time. And better flood protection was built after Betsy.

Before the Y2K mess, I read some of the survivalist stuff. They gave the impression they were more worried about LA riots or brain-eating zombies or whatever. The reality is that the West Coast has earthquakes, the midwest and others have tornadoes, the Gulf and East coasts have hurricanes, blizzards up north. We all need a few days food and alternate means of cooking, etc.

Since this is the "Questions that don't fit anywhere" forum: Why does everyone wait until the day before the Big One to stock up?

Lee

[chp5]

Good post Bruce.