Peak Stage Times Methodology

[Joseph-Dirt]

I listened to Steve + Jeff’s podcast with Zack where they discussed how they come up with PST recommendations each year. For sure no matter what the result of their work is, it is impossible to please everyone. So before I start in with my critique let me say thanks to them for doing this work. And thanks for doing that podcast explaining how it’s done. 

 

One of the most basic issues as I see it is what data is used to compute these PST’s. Zack explained why the WSSC is used - Run by USPSA, laser sighted stages, best RO’s in the world. I have no argument with any of that but I will say that it gave me a Hunger Games vibe. Only things that happen in the Capitol City matter. You plebes out in the Districts just shut up and keep sending in your membership checks. 

 

So what about the Area matches? What are they, chopped liver? I would not suggest using Level 1 matches but if you are really interested in what’s happening in our sport using data from all the area matches would be the way to go. You’d have much more data to plug into the algorithm and those of us that will never make it to the Capitol City will feel more connected to the results. Instead of setting the low end threshold of 5 scores above 95% for inclusion you could raise it to 10 or even 20 would be my guess. More data would smooth out the results and likely avoid these one year spikes in results. One downside is that shooters who shoot in more than one district could have their scores sampled each time. While not ideal I think the number of shooters who fall into this category would be small enough that it’s not a big deal. However, that is the reason why I would only want the Area matches used and not include WSSC. Adding WSSC guarantees large numbers of shooters being sampled more than once. My guess is that over 90% of WSSC shooters also shoot an Area match. While it may be true that some Pro shooters only compete at WSSC do we really want to base PST's on scores from someone who rarely shoots a match? No need to include WSSC scores. 

 

Zack also mentioned that for some divisions the result of the calculations indicated increasing PST but traditionally those times have never been raised. Why not? You could have a scenario where a group of elite shooters rolls through a division, lowering PST’s and then moves on to something else. Is that fair to the shooters who faithfully shoot that division? Old scores drop off my classification record but scores used to calculate PST stay around forever? I would propose in cases where the PST calculated would result in an increased PST to leave the PST alone for the first 2 years (As is done now) but if it happens for 3 Years in a row go ahead and increase the PST that 3rd year. Maybe this is such an outlier that it never happens but it doesn’t seem right that individuals get scores rolled off classification records but PST’s stay around forever. 

 

What impact would these changes have on PST’s? Hard to say. Maybe it’s higher PST’s than the current method but then again maybe not. Maybe doing this only validates what’s been done so far. Whatever the result I think using the Area matches instead of WSSC makes them easier to justify/defend.  

[shred]

FWIW, resistance to lowering the HHF on clearly-wrongly-set classifiers caused a lot of complaining in USPSA.  If the calculation says PST should go down vs up, it needs to go down as well as up.

 

 

[Hoops]

@Joseph-Dirt I’m assuming you have read the post PST Formula Needed.  There is an excellent break down of a new proposal.  Check it out.  

[ZackJones]

One big issue with the inclusion of area matches is, to my knowledge there has yet to be a single area match that has all 13 divisions represented. Area 2 or 5 may have come close but even at WSSC we don't always have a minimum of 10 across every division. 

 

I'm going to go back through the 2024 data and see what divisions and stages had cases where no competitor shot above the current PST. Those would be candidates for modifying upwards. One reason we haven't added time is it has to potential to cause class bumps. 

[Hoops]

On 8/2/2024 at 12:01 PM, ZackJones said:. 

 

I'm going to go back through the 2024 data and see what divisions and stages had cases where no competitor shot above the current PST. Those would be candidates for modifying upwards. One reason we haven't added time is it has to potential to cause class bumps. 

Zack, 

 

Jesse did an extensive review with quite a few details.  Aside from that, reductions in time in many cases, is a bump downward in percentage class even though the Letter doesn’t change.  If an increase in time causes a bump upwards in percentage and letter class, would it not be a reflection of an earned class?  
 

The WSSC alone can depend on which top shooters show up.  Changing methods also influences the results.  If there is no perceived cap on GM’s and there is already a disproportionate number of members in B and C, would that not indicate that further reductions in peak times would make this worse?  There needs to be a sound basis for peak times and then let the classes be what they are.  Otherwise, 99% of the total membership can become discouraged.  Of course this is my opinion for what it’s worth.  It’s encouraging that you are going to review this along with the other presentation.