FTDMFR
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Posts posted by FTDMFR
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This thread is great!
One thing I'll add is that when I'm working up a load, I'll usually test at least 6 groups of 10 in .3 gr increments, take the means of those groups and fit a line to them, and then use that line to determine the right charge for whichever velocity/PF I'm looking for. That helps even out any measurement errors when weighing out charges for the ladder.
The fitted line will usually give me an oddball charge, like 3.17 gr. Since my scale only reads in tenths of a grain, I'll throw 10 charges and go by the average.
To be sure that I have enough PF margin, I'll pick a charge where the mean velocity for that charge is about three standard deviations higher than the minimum velocity for that PF.
I'll also start WELL below the minimum charge when working up. Components are cheap.
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As I'm looking at more and more data, I'm starting to think the shooters that will be hurt the most in terms of ranking are low Masters / high Experts. I'll post more in the other thread.
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how can you account fro something that did not happen yet?
Exactly. You are comparing apples to oranges. Any conclusions from all these "studies" recalculating scores are flawed and meaningless.
I think there's great value in trying to figure out which type of shooter will need to change their current approach in order to stay competitive under the new system. I don't think the answer will be something as simple as "everyone across the board needs to slow down".
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There is also an issue with your conclusion. Yes, the worse you are as a shooter, the more your score will increase. But that has little to do with overall placement. My data suggests that the top 20% percent of shooters are most likely to have there finish rank altered.
I don't have time to post more data from the Worlds, but from what I can tell so far, it looks like pretty much everyone's ranking changes. It's just a matter of by how much. In SSP, it looks like the biggest changes are with the shooters between 20-60% range (where 0% is best).
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I wanted to put the charts up first to get a qualitative feel for the difference. I'm planning on doing ANOVA as well.
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Here's the data from the IDPA 2015 World Championship.
I'll start with the difference in a shooter's division rank between the new system and the old system. Here, above the line means worse rank with the new system, below the line means better rank with the new system. Rank here is actual division rank, not normalized to the number of shooters. I've also broken it out by classification. I'll start with SSP:
I'll add the other divisions as time permits.
NOTE: This data includes the infamous Stage 11. I might rerun the data with Stage 11 removed.
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Agreed. But I think this shows that, even at the club level, the higher level shooters aren't winning by just spraying and praying.
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Given all the weeping and gnashing of teeth regarding the new IDPA scoring system, I decided to run some actual numbers.
The numbers used here are from four random matches from my local club.
Match results are analyzed here in two different forms:
- Match Score Percentage: The winning score is 100%, and the scores are scaled off of that score (e.g. if the winner's match score is 80s, a guy who shot a 160s would be 200%). Lower is better.
- Match Rank: To compensate for different matches having different numbers of competitors, rank has been normalized to a scale of 1-100.
First, here's a scatterplot of match percentage. X-axis is match percentage under the old system, and Y-axis is the match percentage under the new system. A point below the line means that shooter's score is better under the new system, and a point above the line means that shooter's score is worse under the new system. Again, 100% is the match winner.
For the top shooters (near 100%), the points are clumped pretty close to the line, meaning that the new scoring system won't affect them much. As the shooters get worse and worse, the points start deviating further and further from the line, meaning that the worse the shooter you are, the bigger the effect the new scoring system will have.
Here's the same data, but viewed a little differently. The X-axis is still the percentage under the old system, but the Y-axis is now the difference between the new percentage and the old percentage. Again, below the line means better score under the new system, and above the line means worse score under the new system.
So, in terms of match score, the worse the shooter is, the more the new scoring system will affect them. Which is pretty obvious, I guess.
By Rank
Here are the same two plots as above, but for Rank rather than Match Score.
Unlike Match Percentage, where the difference made by the new scoring system becomes uniformly greater the worse the shooter you are, for Rank, difference is the smallest for both the best shooters AND the worst shooters, and the greatest difference is with the shooters in the middle.
So, the top shooters will still be the top shooters (because they're both fast and accurate), and bottom shooters will still be the bottom shooters (because they are neither fast nor accurate), and the shooters in the middle (say MM and SS) will be the ones most affected.
Conclusions
Based on this data set, the new scoring system isn't going to affect the rankings for the the guys near the very top OR near the very bottom. However, the vast majority in the middle should start aiming.
(Nothing that hasn't been said a million times already. But graphs are fun.)
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When I have more time, I'll repeat this using the data from the 2015 Worlds and see how things look when the pros are included. I'll also see if I can quantify exactly how the optimum balance between speed and accuracy will change for the middle-of-the-pack shooters.
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My problem with this whole thing is that, for your typical non-standards IDPA stage, the time spent on splits is such a small fraction of your total stage time. Even if the new scoring system changes the optimum balance between speed and accuracy while shooting at any on particular target, the guys who are going to win are still going to be the guys who can enter and exit positions faster, run faster, transition faster, reload and draw faster, etc.
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So why not just add an additional penalty for mikes?
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You're next, Production A.
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AAR, IDPA 2015 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Stats
- Score: 274.25s
- Accuracy: 62 PD. 1 Mike (headshot barely off perf), maybe four -3s.
- Penalties: 1 PE for cover. No HNTs, FTNs.
- Overall: 50th of 416
- SSP: 16th of 144
- SSP EX: 4th of 36
- EX: 8th of 112
The Good
- Accuracy: I've been practicing a ton of headshots and other tight shots, and it paid off at this match. There were a ton of headshots, and I only missed one, and it was barely off the perf.
- Stage planning: Overall, I'm happy with my stage plans at this match. There was one case when I got a little aggressive (engaging a target while waiting for a drop turner to activate) and it didn't quite pay off.
The Bad
- Visualization: I'm still plagued by inconsistent stage rehearsal. I think I could have knocked 15 seconds off my match score if I had done a better job at this. I'll work on this daily, even if it's just for 10 minutes
- Footwork: I'm taking too many steps here and there and losing a ton of time. I'm pretty happy with my stand and shoot skills for now, so I'm going to start practicing field course skills more heavily. Better visualization will help here too.
Takeaways
- I got my match bump! I'm now an SSP MA.
- I have a long ways to go in terms of stage visualization and consistency, but I'm sure I'll get there.
- I have two state matches coming up. To prepare for them, I'm going to focus less on speed development and more on match mode / shot calling drills.
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At the last IDPA-ish match I went to this ol boy was decked out to the 9s in a black polo, starched khaki 5.11 pants, starched up khaki vest, and a pair of those roughout khaki "desert" tactical boots that looked brand spanking new.
They are almost like caricatures.
And I bet he didn't even leave the match packing heat.
Yeah, nowhere near as cool as the rainbow of individualism that is the USPSA logo-splattered jersey.
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On stages where the shooter ends the stage way downrange of the start position, the uprange targets are often being scored and taped while the shooter is still shooting.
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It used to be fun for me, but now that I've settled on a go-to load, it's more of a chore. I can only do it if I'm listening to a podcast or music or something.
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Question: Does all this bright, shiny wet tumbled brass shoot better than dry tumbled with corn cob or walnut? To me, it just sounds like s bunch of extra steps for no investment return, especially if you have to wait for it to dry and/or are getting bad primers because of water. Just my opinion, YMMV.
I wet tumble mostly because I live in an apartment and don't have a place to dry tumble outdoors.
My wet tumbling process is pretty quick. I don't decap first anymore because I don't care about clean primer pockets, and I'm starting to not even use pins anymore, since they're a PITA to separate. I can tumble 1800 9mm cases in 15 minutes, and then dry them in 45-60 mins. The food dehydrator dries out the primer area, even with the dirty primer still in there.
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Newish USPSA shooter here. I'd appreciate any feedback you guys have to offer.
I've been mostly an IDPA guy for the last four years, but I'm going to transition to mostly USPSA starting in October. I'm currently Production B, but I'd love to make A before the end of the year.
Thanks in advance!
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What size dehydrator?
I use the Nesco FD-37A.
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I don't think your setup is going to get it done, especially with the brass piled up in a bucket. Not enough airflow or heat.
I dry mine in a $30 Nesco food dehydrator. I can dry 1000 9mm cases in an hour. They're bone dry, even though I no longer decap before wet tumbling.
Hope this helps.
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AAR, IPSC MATCH, 9/6/15
Stats
- Production: 3rd of 20 (93.40% of winner)
- Combined: 11th of 81 (74.62% of winner)
- 78A 2B 22C 1D 1M 1NS
The good
- Stage execution: Pretty good, for the most part. I did do a totally unnecessary reload on on stage, but I'll chalk that up to being the first shooter on the first stage of the day.
- SHO / WHO shooting: I never thought I'd say this, but on the classifier stage, it really paid off to be an IDPA shooter. SHO / WHO at 10 yards with a no shoot in front of the targets. I shot this one pretty well, although I did clip the no shoot with a WHO shot (although I did get credit for the shoot through). Although it's lame to say, if I hadn't shot the no shoot, it would have been an M classifier score. I'll get there one day.
- Accuracy with partials: I had good runs on both the classifier stage and on this stage. I'm getting a lot more confident about my shot calling, and I don't get that stressed out anymore about targets being plastered with no shoots.
The not so good
- Footwork: It's looking a little better, but it's sinking in that USPSA stages require much more precise foot placement than IDPA. I need to plan and rehearse my foot placement in much, much greater detail. It's also time for me to start working on position entry and exit in live fire.
- Target engagement order: Sometimes I'll engage an array in a really wonky order. I think I'm starting to geta handle on how to figure out the fastest order, though. I think it might be one of those things that will come with experience.
- Accuracy: Decent, but too many Cs, and one uncalled M.
- Transitions: The transitions in a typical USPSA stage are about a mile longer than in IDPA. It's time to spread out my dry fire targets.
- Falling steel: I should probably check steel ahead of time to see if it falls forward or backward...
The bad
- Totally unnecessary extra shots: Just like in the last IDPA match, I took an extra "security shot" at the end of every Comstock stage. Such a huge waste of time. The good thing is I should be able to break this habit pretty quickly now that I'm aware of it.
Takeaways
- I'm slowly starting to get a handle on the sport. I'm looking forward to shooting much more USPSA after the IDPA season is over.
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AAR, IDPA MATCH, 9/5/15
Stats
- 104.44s
- 24 PD (avg 3 per stage)
- 1 reeeeeally close mike (missed headshot, barely off the perf), no -3s, no penalties
- 2nd of 46 SSP
- 2nd of 77 Overall
- Fastest raw time
- Stage execution: This might be the first match I've ever shot where every single stage went exactly according to plan. I made a conscious effort to rehearse each stage multiple (10+) times in my head, and I ran my mental program to get into match mode during LAMR. I never felt like I was rushing or hurrying at any point during the match, despite having the fastest raw time.
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Stage planning: There were a couple of times where detailed stage planning really helped me out:
- Stage 4: I spent a lot of time planning how to engage the targets behind the swinger. Instead of trying to draw on the right target and beat the swinger, I decided to draw on the left target. It meant that the time to the first shot was longer, but it set me up to shoot the entire array faster without ever really having to worry about beating the swinger. I could have been even more aggressive and shot it half a swing faster, but I was still pretty happy with how my plan worked out.
- Stage 6: On this stage, you had to shoot all the targets while moving backwards, and the last shot had to be taken behind a stick that was 5 yards or so back. I gamed this stage a bit by sprinting backwards during the reload to get closer to the end position.
- Accuracy / shot calling on partial targets: In my last live fire practice session, I spent a ton of time working on partials at 10 and 15 yards, and it really came in handy on this stage with hardcover and this stage with no-shoots. I was able to call my shots with confidence and take necessary make up shots without having to look at the targets. Definitely a vast improvement over a year ago when I would blast away and hope for the best.
- Overall accuracy: Met my goal of a maximum 3 PD average per stage. Let's see if I can get this down to two without sacrificing speed.
- Missed headshots: I'm fine at 7 yards in, but at 10+ yards, it gets iffy. I had an uncalled (close) miss, and I took two make ups that I didn't need.
- REALLY unecessary extra shots: I've noticed I have a terrible habit of taking an extra shot at the last target in a stage for no reason whatsoever. I think this is a leftover habit from before my shot calling days where I would rush to finish a stage and not call my shots on the last target or two and take an extra shot for security. It's time to let this habit die.
- Dropped points on close targets: I hosed a little too fast on close (<5 yd) targets and had too many near -1s. There's no reason for me to drop ANY points on open targets 10 yards and in. I need to remember to see what I need to see even on the close targets. Every point counts.
- I was very happy with my performance this match. Although I didn't take the overall win, I was less than two seconds behind one of the best IDPA shooters in the area, so I think I'm headed in the right direction.
- I'm feeling much better about getting into and staying in match mode for extended periods of time. I'll continue to work on this all week.
- I'm feeling confident going into IDPA Worlds next week.
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At my company, you get a bonus week of vacation at every 5-year interval.
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I know grip / skate tape is allowed in IDPA, but is there a limit to how much tape is allowed?
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With IDPA Worlds coming up in a few weeks, I'm going to work on the following things (in rough priority order):
Stage visualization / mental program
I'm going to shoot as many USPSA matches as possible before IDPA Worlds. I think it will be good visualization practice, since those matches usually have much smaller squads, which means less time to visualize, and the stages are infinitely more complex.
Partial targets / no-shoots / tight shots
I don't want to be surprised by a target presentation I've never seen before, so I watched a ton of videos from previous worlds / nationals championships and made note of all the unusual target arrays. I will be practicing these pretty heavily in dry fire and life fire to drill the proper sight picture for each target at all distances into my subconscious.
Shot difficulty change-ups
Headshots
I've missed way too many headshots lately at local matches.
Movers
Wide transitions
Wide transitions while slicing the pie
Need to work on shifting feet as fast as possible.
Drawing / reloading with my new vest
I just bought the lightweight version of the 5.11 vest. It's nice because it's so light, but it's also really slippery, and I've already whiffed a few draws at matches.
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Yesterday, I went to the range for 6 hours and shot 1000 rounds. Lots of 6-round type drills, at different distances, with lots of reps. This session, the focus was on accuracy and shot calling, not time. I'm pretty happy with my raw time right now, and I think the low hanging fruit is dropping fewer points.
Here are my key takeaways:
Bill Drills
I'm getting major trigger freeze at close range (3-5 yards). Will continue to work on this in upcoming live fire sessions.
Also, at 5 yards, I need to exercise more visual patience than I thought. Just point shooting and pulling the trigger as fast as I can gives me far -1s and some -3s.
Headshots
I'm pushing headshots low, especially on the draw. Will work on this in dry fire this week and see how it looks next week at the range.
25 yard groups
When I do my part, I can hold 4-6" 6-shot groups. There's room for improvement, but it's still a huge improvement over two years ago, when I could barely keep it in the -1 zone. Will shoot groups every live fire session.
Criss cross
I'm really liking this drill. I shot a ton of these at 10 and 15 yards. Lots of missed heads at first, but it got a lot better better with more reps. I think I'll keep working on this drill for a while. I'd love to be able to reliably shoot this drill clean at 25 yards.
Hardcover
I practiced on a hardcover array at 15 yards. Center target was a tuxedo target, and the outer targets were half-covered in vertical hard cover. Blake Drills on this array were especially interesting, since I really had to bring the gun to a hard stop on the center target. I shot drills on this array surprisingly well. It's nice to feel confident about hitting a half -0 zone at 10-15 yards.
I'll practice some more hardcover arrays in dry fire this week and shoot them in live fire on Sunday.
Distance changeup
I set up two open targets at 2 yards, and a tuxedo target at 15 yards in between. Again, I was pleasantly surprised at my visual patience and accuracy on the tuxedo target.
How close to 125 power factor should I get
in Chronograph Equipment & Techniques
Posted
I choose a velocity that is about three standard deviations (for a 15-20 shot group) above the minimum velocity to make PF.
For my current 9mm pet load, that puts me around 131 PF.