Primers?

[Farmer]

3 hours ago, gargoil66 said:

FM:

 

Not sure what is available in Spokane anymore.  White Elephant was a good place at one time.  I haven't bought reloading components at a retail store for twenty or more years. 

 

I assure you that it won't be us on this forum starting a panic and I think the public is sick of dire predictions about the supply of everything, let alone reloading components, and maybe this will settle things down some.   

 

However, if I see CCI or Fed primers for a decent price for sale by one of the big on line reloading stores, I will buy as many as they will sell me.  

 

BTW -- I take it you found someplace near you to shoot?  

 

GG

 

Yes the Elephant was my favorite store. I guess we have to go a little farther to Blacksheep for anything good. Haven’t been there since they moved though. Your right about some  stirring the pot, if everyone would just “carry on” it would help but there’s always the ones that have to pester. I don’t have a “official” place to shoot, just step out my back door.  There’s a fellow fairly close that has shoots on Sundays but haven’t made it over there yet. 

[fraizer15]

Any update on the primer supply? Will it ever get back close to 2020 prices?

[ysrracer]

2 minutes ago, fraizer15 said:

Any update on the primer supply? Will it ever get back close to 2020 prices?

 

Sure as soon as gas is $1.89 again

[Miranda]

yeah, I am hoping they will settle at 55 ish per K.

 

that is still close to double the pre pan-stupid...

 

miranda

[Kema]

3 hours ago, Miranda said:

yeah, I am hoping they will settle at 55 ish per K.

 

that is still close to double the pre pan-stupid...

 

miranda

Covid is so last season. We have a war in Europe and armies are gearing up. This will last a long time. 

[Miranda]

12 hours ago, Kema said:

Covid is so last season. We have a war in Europe and armies are gearing up. This will last a long time. 

here on this forum some time back, I equated all the "but covid"  with "there's a war on"

now we have both...  and they are rather slim excuses for our problems.

Well, should you believe what has been said that we are 'small fraction' of the arms industry.

 

There is nothing that makes me think they can't keep us supplied other than

not wanting to bother... during times of covid or small wars.

 

Mostly I am pointing out that if the 25 bucks pre "wars on" prices was real, then

we are looking at primers at 4 times that price.  I can see some profiteering there.

What I want for my even more dear coin is some real choice and availability.

 

no one can claim we are not willing to pay a reasonable sum.

I am tired of begrudged primers.

 

miranda

 

 

[Boomstick303]

You can be tired all you want.  You can think that people are gouging.  

 

The fact the industry standard is about $100/1000 at most retailers and online stores, and are just about never on the shelves at local stores tells me the market dictates that price.  Ammo is just now coming back onto shelves on local retailers where it sits for more than a couple of weeks at a time but is still at elevated prices.  

 

The fact is the margin for ammo is most likely way greater than the margin on primers therefore ammo manufacturers are going to keep making ammo until the demand for ammo dictates a drop in ammo prices.  

 

The reloaders that exist competitive shooting are a fraction of the competitive shooting community as a whole and an even smaller part of the gun world; therefore, manufacturers are not placating to the competitive shooting market at all, and never will.    

 

We will not see primer prices drop until ammo prices do.  Ammo prices have been pretty steady coming up on two years now and with supply chain and inflation issues I cannot see them dipping anytime soon.  Things are going to get far worse before they get better.  

[ysrracer]

Ammo is double what it used to be, but primers are four times?

[Miranda]

what you heard may not have been what i meant...

 

Hi boomstick303,

I happen to agree with pretty much all you said.
there is a detail in your post that could be
a problem that will undermine it.

 

the fact of the entire matter is that
the profit margin for primers is well past the margin for ammo.

You can make a case that primers is a marginal market from volume.

I think that a VERY clear profit margin should get us at least availability.

 

My opinion is that this community was shorted or over looked
and that since "there's a covid on" is the excuse to run profit...

in what _was_ a close margins type of Biz...
is not an unreasonable course of action. 

"make hay while the sun shines" you may say and I'd agree.

 

During a shortage back in 2008...
There seemed to be a lot of profiteers/pirates/black marketeers, etc.
(who do you believe?)  and the ammo makers felt they lost out of a big
profit event.  (they did...) and wanted to make sure
that did not happen again.   so when a shortage became clear, 

they upped the prices.

I did not object a bit when the prices for ammo doubled.

primers did more than that... they went poof. none.

I saw large lots of primers clear 300 per K....
so there is plenty of margin available.

 

It is very clear that a new primer company
would be profitable...
 

And... If you made ammo and primers and

knew a company called "primersRus" was about to start shipping

or that a foreign company got their stock past customs,

what would you do?

 

Thus we have begrudged primers.

 

miranda

[Boomstick303]

45 minutes ago, ysrracer said:

Ammo is double what it used to be, but primers are four times?

 

Lets use the correct values here.  Current Primer prices on the average have tripled not gone up 4X and have been this way for about a year now.  You cannot hold Hazmat fee and product ordering limits as a part of the cost in regards to the manufacturer.  Those costs are on the distributors.  Do you see primers on retailor shelves?  One does not equate to the other, directly.  It would be easy to see its demand driven in each case. 

 

If primers cost too much they would be on the shelf for more than a day or two.  Once people either stop buying them at the current price, or there is a glut in stock is when primer prices will drop.  There is no incentive for primer manufacturers to act otherwise.  

 

I feel we are lucky in that current primer prices are the same as a year ago, and we have yet to see the effect of supply chain, and/or inflation kick in.   YET.  Maybe supply chain and inflation has played a part in keeping prices the same.  Primers prices could have come down, but the current economical environment kept the prices as is.  Is that something you have thought about?  

 

I think we were spoiled to be honest.  While I loved to purchase a brick of primers from $25-$35 each, that price was rediculous if you think about it.   On the average of 3 cents a primer was pretty low.  I cannot imagine there was not much margin at that price at all.  We will never see those prices again.  

 

Let's be honest.  If most of us would have know what was going to happen to the Primer market we could ship primers we all would have ordered pallets of them and made a buck or two.  

 

Current prices for primers is my threshold for financial pain.  If they go up anymore I will not be buying them.  We all have our own self imposed limits. 

 

 

 

 

[Boomstick303]

33 minutes ago, Miranda said:

the fact of the entire matter is that
the profit margin for primers is well past the margin for ammo.

 

I cannot see how that could be when primers cost 3 cents a piece.  Maybe now it is but not back then.  Today it comes down to margin on per unit margin for ammo. 

The fact that primers do not sit on the self and ammo does indicates this.

 

I will say I was not in the shooting world in 2008, so I cannot comment on any comparison.   

 

35 minutes ago, Miranda said:

My opinion is that this community was shorted or over looked

 

One day people will understand that main stream manufacturing ammo/primer companies do not care about this community was mostly the just of most of my post.  We are a spec in the grand scheme of things in regards to those markets.  Sigs are becoming very popular in the competitive shooting world (I believe mostly due to Phil Stader's influence).  Sig has a reasonable share of the market.  Do you think Sig is making major business decisions based on the competitive shooting market?  I would not believe so in the grand scheme of things.  

 

In both instances I am referring to percentage of sales in the ammo/primer and gun markets world wide.

[Miranda]

Hi boomstick303,

I want you comfortable and thinking and the two of us on the same page.

 

an attempt to get us to agree on various prices to lower the noise.

2108 price and 2021 price.  all retail an that I have seen.

15.95 for a 9mm winchester white box 100 count 115 Gr bullet at walmart

35.95 same item online seller.

 

22.95 S+B primers all 4 types for a thousand at cabellas (this may have been 2016)

none on the shelf for me. so I got 25.95 winchester small pistol at cabellas. me in the store.

I have seen online from natchez for 89.95... and higher from other places.

 

I have read here that rebates were offered and I never saw that.

the place nearest my house sold primers at 36 dollars per k and all kinds were in the case.

 

the online prices were usually at 160 for 5k delivered.

so my experience is that 30 dollars per was easily found.

and bargain hunting or bigger volumes could get 20 per K

 

For the sake of understanding, I'll state the highest you can claim is 35 dollars per k prior to 2020.

They will be at home for that price.

Along with that you have to accept that there is clearly a profit margin in that price.

 

If you have other examples for us to use please share them.

 

onward....

 

so while 550 (current best price) delivered of a 5k brick of primers

is not quite 4 times 160(an everyday price in 2018)... it is close enough.

If you know what cost increases to make primers price more than double recently,

I like to know that.

 

a profit margin is the amount of money you profit

relative to the amount it cost you to make it to market.

This is two numbers compared, a ratio.

There is a common biz model that lowers that margin

to sell more items and create a larger pool of gross income

and therefore make a bigger overall gain/profit.  

You have said the ammo industry is following that second path.

We agree. on that point.   When you compare assembled

ammo profit margin to primer profit margin

there is far more profit in primers at the moment.

 

Should you think we are a speck on that ammo industry's biz,

I think I can agree and will want to add that if this is true,

is there some real reason to skip selling primers to us?

if we are a speck, it will cost them nothing to divert some primers to us.

and we pay as much profit as any 'lost sales' of other ammo.

 

I tend to think this is good reason to say; you are correct, we are but a speck...

I will also point out that

it is pretty clear making a profit off primer sales is not a big motivator for them.

so why are primers even being sold?

 

I think the foreign primers now available may be involved

in primers being available from US makers...

 

so you may not like that I call them primers 'begrudged'...

a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.

 

miranda

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Kema]

12 hours ago, Miranda said:

There is nothing that makes me think they can't keep us supplied other than

not wanting to bother... during times of covid or small wars.

 

miranda

Small war? Ukraine is a country of 40 million people fighting with the whole Russian army.

 

Demand of ammo is huge on daily basis. Escalation is almost certain if there is no dramatic changes in Russian leadership...

[Fishbreath]

16 hours ago, Boomstick303 said:

Ammo prices have been pretty steady coming up on two years

 

More or less, yes.

 

 

 

Sadly, I only had this idea in late 2020, so I missed the election and any data prior to it, but your intuition is correct in that ammo prices have been mostly steady since mid-2021, with a slow downward trend.

 

(Data is generated by searching Ammoseek for a basket of 10 rifle and pistol calibers.)

[Joe4d]

panic buying, hording, whatever you want to call it, has set the new retail price. If I had a product that folks were willing to pay $100 for,, why would I ever sell it again for $30 ? Also with the current consolidation there has been no competition.  Who is left making primers ? Vista, Winchester, ?  Is Remington plant running ? I am sure Goverment has all kinds of road blocks for imports. Used to be a pretty big Russian supply. Doubt prices will ever go back down.  I am taking up rimfire.

Reminds  me of bullet prices.  Metals when through the roof in the world market..  Wars were on going, Companies got large contracts. Bulk bullets jumped in prices, added lead surcharges etc... Blamed on metals market..still sold fairly well.
Thing is metal prices came back down to lower than they were,,, yet the bullet prices never came back down. All fine and dandy,,,to charge what market will pay. I just found it annoying for them to keep lying about it.

 

[Boomstick303]

You can find primers for $90/1K pretty easy if you look on a consistent basis so I am not going to argue about if current primer costs are 3x or 4x verse the Golden years.

 

Supply and demand.  Its pretty simple.  Will they make money while they can?  Of course.  I will always go back to, until you see the stock of ANY item on the shelf for extended period of time is the only time you will see prices "normalize" to the new baseline.  What is that baseline?  No one knows, and may not know for a decade in the current financial/political climate the world is currently in.  

 

Ammo prices have been pretty steady for awhile now, have been on retailor shelves for the better part of a year now and do not seem to be coming down.  Is $0.75/round for 223 and $0.33/round for 9 mm the new norm (these are approximate values, but seem to be the average)?  Its starting to look that way.  I would not expect those prices to drop until the world gets in a better place.  That is also and unknown, if that will ever happen.  

 

I wouldn't wait for mass ammo/primer makers to care about the competitive shooting world and "throw us a bone".  That is never going to happen.    

[pskys2]

fwiw I noticed a supplier had primers at $200+/1k and they didn't move.  Another had them for $120/1k and they took weeks to move.  Most are at, or below, $100/1k or $120/1k w/hazmat & shipping included (by the flat) and they move briskly.

So it seems there is still some being delivered and there is a point at which they won't move.

My guess is at some point in the future when sanity gets a grip again, the prices will gradually drop to $70/1k. 

[Boomstick303]

On a good note I did buy CCI Small Rifle primers for $75.00/1k locally here at a Scheels about 2 weeks ago.  I also spoke to a guy who started shooting USPSA that works at Scheels and he indicated they get them pretty regularly and they last a couple of days due to purchase limits. 

 

Shotgun primers are in stock at the local Sportsman's Warehouse and have been in stock for well over a month now at $6/100.  I have not seen these for over two years in retail stores.

 

So maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel in regards to retail stock and prices.  

[gargoil66]

Guys:

 

I don't think the war in Ukraine is stressing US primer or small arms ammo production.  Not sure how much ammo for Soviet designed small arms we are producing.  Probably not a lot because I doubt we have many ammo producers who are tooled for the various Eastern Block firearms.  I am pretty sure Ukraine has ammo plants and or is getting ammo from former Soviet Union countries.  

 

I do think that it is more profitable to sell the loaded ammo than components but I also see the major US primer makers getting some of their primers into the market every couple of months.  So, If I see an online retailer selling Fed 100's, I will buy as many as they will sell me.  Not hoarding.  I actually use them.  Have shot 5K easily since the last time I bought Fed 100's so am keeping an eye on Discord for the next dump by Federal or CCI since apparently their SPP's will work with competitive triggers and hammers.

 

If someone wants to be a competitive shooter, they will either reload or get sponsorship.  And there have been a number of .22 RF shortages over the years.  Going back way before Covid finding some of the more common mid grade .22 LR was almost impossible.  

 

GG

 

 

[testosterone]

sometimes a cigar is just a cigar or whatever.

 

The Federal ammo CEO said in plain language, the demand for loaded ammo in 2020 was the highest ever by a large margin and they produced more than ever, and moreover and critically,  the primers that make it retail for reloaders are the *leftovers* not used in production of loaded ammo, the end.   

 

It is a pretty cut and dry statement, there is a market for reloaders, including commercial operations like AA or whoever your favorite boutique is, but combined that production is a rounding error on what federal is producing...

 

All other factors have some effect of course, but the election of biden is why there are no primers.   It is not war, it is not covid, it is a democrat in the Prez seat.

 

Most remember the dry up of literally everything after sandy hook, things really truly never got better until trump was elected, 2016-19 everything flowed freely and was as cheap as it ever was inflation adjusted, even still, i was paying same for primers in 2017 as I paid in 2010...

 

Current state is not changing until 2024 at best, and thats only if an R wins.  

 

[ysrracer]

10 minutes ago, testosterone said:

sometimes a cigar is just a cigar or whatever.

 

The Federal ammo CEO said in plain language, the demand for loaded ammo in 2020 was the highest ever by a large margin and they produced more than ever, and moreover and critically,  the primers that make it retail for reloaders are the *leftovers* not used in production of loaded ammo, the end.   

 

It is a pretty cut and dry statement, there is a market for reloaders, including commercial operations like AA or whoever your favorite boutique is, but combined that production is a rounding error on what federal is producing...

 

All other factors have some effect of course, but the election of biden is why there are no primers.   It is not war, it is not covid, it is a democrat in the Prez seat.

 

Most remember the dry up of literally everything after sandy hook, things really truly never got better until trump was elected, 2016-19 everything flowed freely and was as cheap as it ever was inflation adjusted, even still, i was paying same for primers in 2017 as I paid in 2010...

 

Current state is not changing until 2024 at best, and thats only if an R wins.  

 

 

I love dis guy

 

He speaks the truth. Unfortunately I think we're screwed for a long time.

[testosterone]

On 9/6/2022 at 4:33 PM, Boomstick303 said:

Sig is making major business decision...hiring phil.

Maybe yes, maybe no, at least its not zero.

Everyone in the game and on social media is very aware of the full court carpet bombing sig did of the retail and competition market when the 320 launched, they fielded a team of like 20 shooters wearing those sig jerseys to promote.  I grant you, this was not expensive for them to hand out a 100 handguns and few dozen jerseys, but it was a signal they want the market.  sig is also a significant uspsa sponsor.

I get it, the commercial market is a fraction of winning the army contract, of course, but its not zero.    insiders to report that sig makes many many millions ,  selling to retail.  Its way more than nothing and clearly someone over there thinks it's good business choice to do so.   They even just spent a fortune building that new facility directly aimed at retail.

and respect to Phil, i have no idea what his professional background is, but its pretty easy to make a logical(cynical) leap he was specifically hired at least in part due to his noteriety and influence in the competition community.

your main point stands though, the reloading community(straight from fed ceo's mouth) is the leftovers they don't use for loaded ammo, the end.

[testosterone]

On 9/7/2022 at 7:40 AM, Fishbreath said:

More or less, yes.

i think for 9mm specifically, things are way way better.   At its worst, when you could even find it, steel soviet block stuff was .75c a round.   Now its easy to find brass ammo under .40, and reman under .30.   I just did a bulk order of reman delivered for .27c a round.   This is unironically at the cross over point based on current primer prices for me to not even bother loading 9mm anymore, at least for pistols...

[Kema]

On 9/8/2022 at 1:32 AM, gargoil66 said:

Guys:

 

I don't think the war in Ukraine is stressing US primer or small arms ammo production.  Not sure how much ammo for Soviet designed small arms we are producing.  Probably not a lot because I doubt we have many ammo producers who are tooled for the various Eastern Block firearms.  I am pretty sure Ukraine has ammo plants and or is getting ammo from former Soviet Union countries.  

It's stressing all ammo production and is priority 1. I happily have a few year break and support Ukraine. 

 

 

[dannyd]

Have any you guy's used this brand of primer?

 

Murom