USPSA Division Revamp Based on Data

[CClassForLife]

Assumptions and philosophy

• Hit Factor scoring is core to the soul of USPSA.
• There will always be an arms race with regards to guns and gear.
• Simplicity is better than complexity from multiple standpoints:
  1. Easier to understand means lower barrier to introduction (simplicity in rules)
  2. Easier calculations translate to more efficient matches (simplicity in HF calculations)
  3. Fewer divisions result in deeper competition pools (simplicity in stratification)
• USPSA stages evolve naturally within the confines of 32 round stage limits.
• Although USPSA is connected with IPSC, it is ultimately separate. I believe that sharing the same scoring system is enough and our sport should be allowed to adapt.

 

Proposal

There are three two things that significantly affect performance (based on analysis of major matches):

1. Magazine capacity
2. Red dots versus irons
3. Rifle versus handgun

 

Divide divisions not based on an evergrowing list of doodads, but magazine capacity. Then add penalty modifiers based on things that are shown to have a statistically significant advantage. Keep in mind, the penalty percentage favors simplicity in understandability over a truly exact number.

 

The proposed divisions are as follows:

1. Division 30: 30 rounds and fewer
2. Division 20: 20 rounds and fewer
3. Division 10: 10 rounds and fewer

 

Penalty modifiers are as follows (some cap to the number of modifiers in effect each year seems like a good idea for futureproofing, perhaps up to 5 for any given shooting year):

1. Red dots: -10% -5%
2. Rifle: -5%

 

Scoring is minor only. Minimum PF of 125. Minimum caliber of 9x19mm. Whatever quality of life enhancements you want to do to your gun (stippling, frame modifications, trigger jobs, etc.) is free game. Modifications that are shown to provide statistically significant advantage are subject to penalty modifiers the following shooting year. This way, manufacturers and shooters will find optimizations that are generally applicable rather than ones that only apply in a vacuum.

 

Concerns

• Classifiers will be broken. These changes are meant to balance out major level performances NOT classifiers. For example, PCC might have an advantage for classifiers requiring one-handed shooting or turn around draws.
• Non 9mm calibers like 40S&W, 45ACP, 38SC will be obsolete. I think being able to put a dot on 40 or 45 guns will give them new life. 38SC didn't die with the introduction of 9mm major. 
• Single Stack and Revo die out. Again, maybe being able to put a dot on them might make them even more appealing. I'd argue there's even more prestige placing well in DIV10 than winning a division with a handful of competitors.
• Everything becomes Open. Changing Major to Minor scoring is surprisingly pretty effective in reaching parity. There are also unforeseen psychological effects that will reveal themselves in results such as Open shooters potentially being less aggressive since they are scored Minor.
• Some PCC gamer might shooting DIV10 and get a trophy. Good luck with the third reload.
• I'll have to get a magwell and compensator to be competitive. If simply switching Open shooters to Minor scoring puts them on par with CO, then it's likely that those additions have minimal benefits in a match setting for DIV20/30. Magwells might be overpowered in DIV10, but I prefer to see what happens first.
• This is way too much change. Front load the change instead of having the same conversation year in, year out.

 

Added Benefits

• Mag restricted states can still be competitive in DIV10 without worrying about gimping a division for just that state.
• Way less confusing and intimidating for newer shooters. If you can count, then you can figure out what division to shoot simply by knowing your magazine capacity.
• More competitive majors and the ability to have a single Nationals again without diluting competition.

---

 

Some data assuming proposed changes were in effect for Dragon's Cup 2021. New divisions assumed the closest current division (e.g. CO -> DIV20, PCC-> DIV30).

Overall Top 20%

 

Division 30 Top 5

 

Division 20 Top 5

 

Division 10 Top 5

Edited March 24, 2022 by CClassForLife
Changed some things due to Dragon's Cup analysis

[twodownzero]

This sounds to me like everything becomes the Open Division, which is terrible.  The open division should stay the open division.  The rules should be strictly enforced to eliminate the arms race and make it about the sport, elsewhere.

 

[CClassForLife]

20 minutes ago, twodownzero said:

This sounds to me like everything becomes the Open Division, which is terrible.  The open division should stay the open division.  The rules should be strictly enforced to eliminate the arms race and make it about the sport, elsewhere.

 

 

Initially, I had the same concern. However, due to major scoring being removed, it balances quite well. The top competitors for CO intermix with the top Open shooters. The top of each division still beat the mid-pack of the other. Same pattern applies to dot/no dot with the proposed modifiers. I looked at Area matches and matches like Dragons Cup that have a strong turnout for each division.

 

By stratifying divisions based on mag capacity, shooters are free to experiment with whatever platform they want. It becomes purely about the sport in my opinion. It's not about everyone having the same exact gun, but it's about making everyone believe they have the same shot.

 

[Rnlinebacker]

The fixing things because of our feelings starts again

[JFlowers]

So basically, everyone in Open, and Limited have to buy new guns to compete.

[Racinready300ex]

What we should to fix the sport is just completely change every aspect of it because we like it so much. With so many people posting they want to completely change the divisions I wonder why do they even shoot USPSA? There really is a point where a new sport should be formed, like IDPA did back in the day. I think cowboy action did the same thing. 

 

And once we pick this new idea, or that other new idea. As soon as it's implemented there will be a post on here about why it's wrong/dumb and what we need to change to fix it. I don't think this sport will ever really amount to anything. It'll just constantly change into new forms depending how the wind is blowing. It's kind of like how we completely changed all the rules in baseball just last year, and the year before that. And now finally after changing the rules over and over again we're finally to a place where we can watch baseball on TV now and people get paid just to play it. 

[driver8M3]

 

25 minutes ago, Racinready300ex said:

What we should [do] to fix the sport is just completely change every aspect of it because we like it so much.

 

Agree completely. Somehow that obnoxious sentiment seems to be very popular lately.

Edited March 24, 2022 by driver8M3

[Fishbreath]

Whenever I see a proposal like this, I like to ask, "In what concrete way does it make the game better than it is now?" Like most proposals, I don't think this one is a clear, obvious improvement over the current system, which ought to be the standard for any change to the rules, much less a complete and total overhaul of the equipment rules.

 

Mostly I'm on Team Stop Screwing With the Rules Already, with some sympathy for Team Wouldn't It Be Cool If We Tried to Keep in Sync With IPSC.

[Racinready300ex]

47 minutes ago, Fishbreath said:

Whenever I see a proposal like this, I like to ask, "In what concrete way does it make the game better than it is now?" Like most proposals, I don't think this one is a clear, obvious improvement over the current system, which ought to be the standard for any change to the rules, much less a complete and total overhaul of the equipment rules.

 

Mostly I'm on Team Stop Screwing With the Rules Already, with some sympathy for Team Wouldn't It Be Cool If We Tried to Keep in Sync With IPSC.

 

I think a lot of people would feel it makes the sport worse. Imagine you're the guy showing up to your next match and at check in you say you're shooting limited. The stats guy tells you that isn't a division anymore. You'll be shooting in the 30 round division scored minor but you get a little bonus for shooting irons. At this point how are you feeling? But, you really love uspsa so you figure better dump this $3k limited gun and get something that fits a division. So you come to Enos to sell it and no one wants to buy a obsolete 40. Who out side of uspsa is looking for a 3-5k dollar 40 or 38 super? So now that the rug was pulled from under your feet, you get to either shoot gear that isn't competitive or buy all new gear. 

 

Now imagine you're the MD or the stats guy who gets to explain to ever single shooter the division they came to shoot doesn't exist and they're lumped into these new divisions that their gear may or may not really be well suited for. Especially the people who still shoot major, the entire game is changed for them. 

 

I'm also on team leave s#!t alone for a while. 

[motosapiens]

2 hours ago, JFlowers said:

So basically, everyone in Open, and Limited have to buy new guns to compete.

+1

 

can we just ban people who suggest this lame nonsense?

 

Everything is working great right now, and there is more participation than ever. Let's have a few years of stability in the rules and enjoy how awesome the sport is now.

Edited March 24, 2022 by motosapiens

[Bagellord]

33 minutes ago, Racinready300ex said:

 

I think a lot of people would feel it makes the sport worse. Imagine you're the guy showing up to your next match and at check in you say you're shooting limited. The stats guy tells you that isn't a division anymore. You'll be shooting in the 30 round division scored minor but you get a little bonus for shooting irons. At this point how are you feeling? But, you really love uspsa so you figure better dump this $3k limited gun and get something that fits a division. So you come to Enos to sell it and no one wants to buy a obsolete 40. Who out side of uspsa is looking for a 3-5k dollar 40 or 38 super? So now that the rug was pulled from under your feet, you get to either shoot gear that isn't competitive or buy all new gear. 

 

Now imagine you're the MD or the stats guy who gets to explain to ever single shooter the division they came to shoot doesn't exist and they're lumped into these new divisions that their gear may or may not really be well suited for. Especially the people who still shoot major, the entire game is changed for them. 

 

I'm also on team leave s#!t alone for a while. 

 

I already hate being the guy who has to tell the guy with a magwell and a dot on their glock they're in open, or that they can't shoot with a pistol brace. What you've just described is nightmare inducing!

[CClassForLife]

4 hours ago, Rnlinebacker said:

The fixing things because of our feelings starts again

 

My personal stance is to let things be. But I decided to add to the conversation with the idea that if I was USPSA Dictator AND had to make changes to the divisions, what would I do. The divisions were arrived at through clustering then a quick adjustment to the nearest divisible-by-10 number for convenience.

 

3 hours ago, JFlowers said:

So basically, everyone in Open, and Limited have to buy new guns to compete.

 

No, people in Open and Limited can use their current guns just fine. Their competition pool just gets deeper so egos get hurt when placements start dropping (with relative percentage being roughly the same).

 

57 minutes ago, Racinready300ex said:

 

I think a lot of people would feel it makes the sport worse. Imagine you're the guy showing up to your next match and at check in you say you're shooting limited. The stats guy tells you that isn't a division anymore. You'll be shooting in the 30 round division scored minor but you get a little bonus for shooting irons. At this point how are you feeling? But, you really love uspsa so you figure better dump this $3k limited gun and get something that fits a division. So you come to Enos to sell it and no one wants to buy a obsolete 40. Who out side of uspsa is looking for a 3-5k dollar 40 or 38 super? So now that the rug was pulled from under your feet, you get to either shoot gear that isn't competitive or buy all new gear. 

 

Now imagine you're the MD or the stats guy who gets to explain to ever single shooter the division they came to shoot doesn't exist and they're lumped into these new divisions that their gear may or may not really be well suited for. Especially the people who still shoot major, the entire game is changed for them. 

 

I'm also on team leave s#!t alone for a while. 

 

I'm also on the team of leave things alone. This post is merely to add to the discussion. In your example, the guy simply downloads mags to 20 and will be just as competitive as before. A person that is crushing Limited will be crushing just as hard. If a person was doing well with major scoring, they will be doing just as well under the proposal. The shooters that feel that they must sell their gear to be competitive would be doing so not out of objective data but a feeling that they might be losing placement to some scrub with different gear. Limited, Production, or Carry Optics are just labels with no inherent connection to the guns they allow. I think people who figured out their guns belong in Limited can also figure out how to count to 20.

 

1 hour ago, motosapiens said:

+1

 

can we just ban people who suggest this lame nonsense?

 

Everything is working great right now, and there is more participation than ever. Let's have a few years of stability in the rules and enjoy how awesome the sport is now.

 

I agree that everything is working great right now. I merely presented an alternative case that was backed by some reasoning. It seems the crux of the issue is that shooters don't want to compete against others with gear looking radically different than theirs even if it's found to be equitable. People want their stock car divisions, and I get it.

[louu]

 

[Part_time_redneck]

No disrespect meant to anyone but I don't think trying to run hi-cap divisions like production is a good idea. Most people are very honest however some aren't. How are the round / mag limits enforced and what is the penalty? CO / Limited can go over 20 and PCC's can blow 30 out of the water. The bump to open doesn't work anymore. Are the RO's now going to be counting shots to 20 & 30 when their primary duty is safety? Penalties? One proc, one proc per shot fired after limit? How to verify? Review timer? Not going to help match efficiency at all.  Magazine length limits based on division makes more sense to me, but it seems like that's where we are now. 

 

I'm also a big fan of simplicity but it seems when these discussions come up, the simple thing to do is leave what is working alone. Most hypothetical proposals for division changes / deletions generate a lot more problems for the masses than they solve for a select few. Also these "proposals" tend to attempt to resolve issues that in reality, don't actually exist, in my opinion. Trying to reinvent the wheel with a square brick when you have a perfectly good wheel seems like a loosing proposition. 

 

 

[Racinready300ex]

2 hours ago, CClassForLife said:

I'm also on the team of leave things alone. This post is merely to add to the discussion. In your example, the guy simply downloads mags to 20 and will be just as competitive as before. A person that is crushing Limited will be crushing just as hard. If a person was doing well with major scoring, they will be doing just as well under the proposal. The shooters that feel that they must sell their gear to be competitive would be doing so not out of objective data but a feeling that they might be losing placement to some scrub with different gear. Limited, Production, or Carry Optics are just labels with no inherent connection to the guns they allow. I think people who figured out their guns belong in Limited can also figure out how to count to 20.

 

 

What about the guy who's not crushing limited? Most members aren't crushing anything. They wont even know the rule changed until they show up at the match. What if that person doesn't want to to down load his mags, or likes major scoring? Imagine if he might of picked Limited because he liked it...as it is. In fact I'd venture to guess most guys who've spent money on a limited gun did so because they liked the division. 

 

This seems like a good way to get people to leave the sport. Anyone who's heavily invested in optimized equipment for a division is vary likely to be pissed when that equipment becomes virtually worthless. Don't think it's worthless? Go try to sell a Limited shooter a $6k minor gun. They'll look at you like you have a snake in your boot. Eliminate major and the opposite will be true. No one will be spending $6k on a 40 ever again. All that value is gone. 

 

Edit to add, your divisions aren't really bad, and might work well if we were just starting up IPSC today. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Racinready300ex

[obsessiveshooter]

I know it's fun to play with hypotheticals, but I'd be pissed if I needed to sell my limited pistol at a huge loss to buy a 9.  I'd do it, but I'd feel differently about USPSA from then on.  

 

CClassforlife: You sure you don't like this idea because you'd suddenly be higher in the overalls with your Carry Optics bug gun?

[EEH]

When they changed Revolver division to 8 shot, it cost a lot of guy’s a bunch of money. Most were shooting 625, with a lot of upgrades which they never recovered. Me included.

[JFlowers]

CClass4Life,

You have contradicted yourself here.  You said everything goes to Minor with no benefit for Major, but that everyone using a Major gun doesn't need to change.  Either A or B, A and B is not a reasonable assumption.

[CClassForLife]

1 hour ago, obsessiveshooter said:

I know it's fun to play with hypotheticals, but I'd be pissed if I needed to sell my limited pistol at a huge loss to buy a 9.  I'd do it, but I'd feel differently about USPSA from then on.  

 

CClassforlife: You sure you don't like this idea because you'd suddenly be higher in the overalls with your Carry Optics bug gun?

 

I would actually go down in ranking for this match from 18th to 21st.

 

2 hours ago, Part_time_redneck said:

No disrespect meant to anyone but I don't think trying to run hi-cap divisions like production is a good idea. Most people are very honest however some aren't. How are the round / mag limits enforced and what is the penalty? CO / Limited can go over 20 and PCC's can blow 30 out of the water. The bump to open doesn't work anymore. Are the RO's now going to be counting shots to 20 & 30 when their primary duty is safety? Penalties? One proc, one proc per shot fired after limit? How to verify? Review timer? Not going to help match efficiency at all.  Magazine length limits based on division makes more sense to me, but it seems like that's where we are now. 

 

I'm also a big fan of simplicity but it seems when these discussions come up, the simple thing to do is leave what is working alone. Most hypothetical proposals for division changes / deletions generate a lot more problems for the masses than they solve for a select few. Also these "proposals" tend to attempt to resolve issues that in reality, don't actually exist, in my opinion. Trying to reinvent the wheel with a square brick when you have a perfectly good wheel seems like a loosing proposition. 

 

 

 

How does production get currently enforced to 10 rounds for people running mags that can hold 17+? Same thing applies here.

 

2 hours ago, Racinready300ex said:

 

What about the guy who's not crushing limited? Most members aren't crushing anything. They wont even know the rule changed until they show up at the match. What if that person doesn't want to to down load his mags, or likes major scoring? Imagine if he might of picked Limited because he liked it...as it is. In fact I'd venture to guess most guys who've spent money on a limited gun did so because they liked the division. 

 

This seems like a good way to get people to leave the sport. Anyone who's heavily invested in optimized equipment for a division is vary likely to be pissed when that equipment becomes virtually worthless. Don't think it's worthless? Go try to sell a Limited shooter a $6k minor gun. They'll look at you like you have a snake in your boot. Eliminate major and the opposite will be true. No one will be spending $6k on a 40 ever again. All that value is gone. 

 

Edit to add, your divisions aren't really bad, and might work well if we were just starting up IPSC today. 

 

Another modifier could be added if 40S&W and 45ACP shooters are determined to have a significant disadvantage. Call it a "Heavy Metal Bonus" of 3% or something. Basically, it's Major scoring in disguise. I think the issue with how the current Limited division would fit into this proposal is the biggest sticking point.

 

1 hour ago, EEH said:

When they changed Revolver division to 8 shot, it cost a lot of guy’s a bunch of money. Most were shooting 625, with a lot of upgrades which they never recovered. Me included.

 

Revolver gets to shoot for free, or revolver gets +10% +25% modifier bonus. If eventually no one shoots it, then the modifier can simply be retired. Not a perfect solution, but it kind of works.

 

53 minutes ago, JFlowers said:

CClass4Life,

You have contradicted yourself here.  You said everything goes to Minor with no benefit for Major, but that everyone using a Major gun doesn't need to change.  Either A or B, A and B is not a reasonable assumption.

 

It's possible to remove an advantage and end up on even ground. I think you're coming from the perspective that Open/Limited shooters should always have a higher average HF given the same skill than CO/Prod shooters. This proposal comes from the perspective that having the same average HF given the same skill is something worth optimizing for. Based on the analysis, Open shooters stay just as competitive. Limited also sees surprisingly little deviation as they are intermixed with CO results. I'm making these observations as impartially as I can. Switch L10 to minor scoring for LoCap Nationals and it's surprisingly in line with Prod. Sure, the meta could shift to everyone running 9mm Minor with magwells, compensators, and thumb-rests, but the data to me says the proposal won't make Limited Major guns obsolete. It seems like people don't want to have a situation where the top 10 in a division look disjointed (e.g. why is the 2nd place guy running a PCC with irons and the 5th place guy is running an Open gun?).

Edited March 24, 2022 by CClassForLife
Updated revolver modifier per Fishbreath's recommendation

[Fishbreath]

1 minute ago, CClassForLife said:

revolver gets +10% modifier bonus.

 

It's more like 20-30% against Production or Single Stack, if you look at recent Nationals results.

[RJH]

By reading this thread, at least part of, it I finally realized we have basically every possibility covered in USPSA right now:

 

You want to shoot wide Open no holds barred major, we have that in open 

 

You want to shoot wide Open no holds barred minor, we have that in PCC

 

You want to shoot high cap major, we have that in limited

 

You want to shoot high cap minor, we have that in carry-ops

 

You want to shoot low cap minor, we have that in production, revolver, single stack

 

You want to shoot locat major, we have that in limited 10, single stack 

 

I've thought a few times that things should be changed as well, but pretty much every base is covered now and if you don't like it you just being overly picky. And trying to build divisions for noobs is stupid so no sense in that mess either. 

 

 

[Racinready300ex]

15 minutes ago, CClassForLife said:

 

 

 

It's possible to remove an advantage and end up on even ground. I think you're coming from the perspective that Open/Limited shooters should always have a higher average HF given the same skill than CO/Prod shooters. This proposal comes from the perspective that having the same average HF given the same skill is something worth optimizing for. Based on the analysis, Open shooters stay just as competitive. Limited also sees surprisingly little deviation as they are intermixed with CO results. I'm making these observations as impartially as I can. Switch L10 to minor scoring for LoCap Nationals and it's surprisingly in line with Prod. Sure, the meta could shift to everyone running 9mm Minor with magwells, compensators, and thumb-rests, but the data to me says the proposal won't make Limited Major guns obsolete. It seems like people don't want to have a situation where the top 10 in a division look disjointed (e.g. why is the 2nd place guy running a PCC with irons and the 5th place guy is running an Open gun?).

 

So is the goal here to not really have divisions, everyone is just running heads up and we're going to use match to come up with modifiers to the score to account for differences in gear? The current system it doesn't matter that limited always has a higher HF than production. With your proposal we're going to try to balance it out based on results and I think the modifiers are going to have to constantly change and be impossible to get right, because people are going to game the system.

 

I saw a interview with a racer in a league that did this kind of thing. He was the top dog and they kept tweaking the rules resulting in him needing to add more and more weight to his car because his setup was considered the fastest. At the time he was completely rebuilding his car in the offseason so he could shed all those restrictions and was expecting to go even faster while probably breaking less parts from not needing to push things so hard to win. Most likely after another season or two they'll be changing all the rules to try to rebalance things. They'll likely be chasing their tail trying to work out the perfect modifier. I could see similar pitfalls in our sport. 

[CClassForLife]

1 minute ago, Racinready300ex said:

 

So is the goal here to not really have divisions, everyone is just running heads up and we're going to use match to come up with modifiers to the score to account for differences in gear? The current system it doesn't matter that limited always has a higher HF than production. With your proposal we're going to try to balance it out based on results and I think the modifiers are going to have to constantly change and be impossible to get right, because people are going to game the system.

 

I saw a interview with a racer in a league that did this kind of thing. He was the top dog and they kept tweaking the rules resulting in him needing to add more and more weight to his car because his setup was considered the fastest. At the time he was completely rebuilding his car in the offseason so he could shed all those restrictions and was expecting to go even faster while probably breaking less parts from not needing to push things so hard to win. Most likely after another season or two they'll be changing all the rules to try to rebalance things. They'll likely be chasing their tail trying to work out the perfect modifier. I could see similar pitfalls in our sport. 

 

Same pitfalls for sure. Choose a dynamic list of divisions or dynamic list of modifiers. I feel the latter is easier to maintain. Personally, I don't think gun gear has as much of an influence on the results as a race car. For example, put Hamilton in a HAAS last season and he's not winning. Give Sailer some other Open gun and he still wins. The current system has independent divisions with further subdivisions by category (LE, Lady, Junior, Senior, etc). The proposed system still has independent divisions but the modifiers become the categories. The game each year now becomes uncertainty in equipment configuration but certainty in competition instead of the other way around.

[NoSteel]

Maybe MLB baseball should switch to using a T-Ball and an aluminum bat so everybody can play..

Edited March 24, 2022 by NoSteel

[CClassForLife]

5 minutes ago, NoSteel said:

Maybe MLB baseball should switch to using a T-Ball and an aluminum bat so everybody can play..

 

This analogy would work if the proposal was trying to introduce 22LR and air guns. The proposal is more like having weight classes in MMA fighting (with magazine capacity as the analog). Fighters can use whatever techniques they want or look however they like as long as they meet weight. Sure, there are certain techniques that are forbidden which might limit the effectiveness of certain styles, but those are like the proposed modifiers.