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How much do you think the ammo and primer shortgage will affect uspsa in the long term


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2 hours ago, ima45dv8 said:

There was a hole in the concrete block wall with a small conveyor coming through it. A rack of maybe 100 primer cups would come in that way. The folks working in there would use something like a stiff squeegee to scrap a small amount of the green explosive paste off a chunk on the table (maybe the size of two sandwiches stacked up), and then smear it into the cups. They had to swipe it a few times to get the fill just right in their expert and practised eyes. When done they would put the tray back on the conveyor and send it out the other hole in the wall. I don't recall when or how the anvils were inserted. Maybe they were already in the cups when they arrived. I can't remember. 

 

The 'guide' was explaining about why the humidity level was at/almost 100% to keep the stuff from lighting off spontaneously, and it's stored in water. In its native state, if it gets dry, even the lightest touch imaginable to pick it up and return it to it's water bath could cause a tremendous explosion. He also explained how they're constantly linked to weather radar to know when to shut it down and get out. If there's lightning within 5 miles (pretty sure that was the distance) they Stop! and exit. The storage bunkers for the finished product are rather small (maybe 5'x5', on stilts) and spaced far apart out in a secured pasture on the property. They looked to have 15-20 yards between them. 

 

I had serious visions of some super-automated process before I went in there, like the rest of the facility. Once I learned the very high level of risk they were faced with, and how manual the process is, I just don't know how they could do it faster without simply duplicating that small area and process -- an expensive and dangerous proposition, at best. 

 

Remember, these folks have been the business of automated ammo manufacturing for a long time (what? over a hundred years?), and this is how they feel they have to do it. 

 

It was downright spooky, and my feet were itching to get the Hell out of there.

 

That's amazing.  But the good thing is that mostly manual processes can be scaled up much more rapidly than heavily automated processes.

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2 minutes ago, SGT_Schultz said:

 

That's amazing.  But the good thing is that mostly manual processes can be scaled up much more rapidly than heavily automated processes.

one would hope there is the financial incentive to do so.

 

otoh, my dirtbike was getting neglected the last few years, but I got a fair amount of riding done in 2020. when I run out of primers, I'm just going to ride even more until I can find primers again. no problem.

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My guess is 2 years unless you have lots of suppliers on hand. No one is shooting at my club. However, it usually starts to slow down now that the colder weather is setting in...but the quite hit early this year.

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For me, I have about a year’s supply of ammo. I am am going to try to make this a positive...every time I go to the range, I am going to be very methodical in practice and certainly won’t just be slinging lead down range and calling it “practice”.  There will be a definite goal as to what I am practicing.

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1. Here's a link to a video on the Federal ammo plant that shows some of the primer manufacturing process (starting at 3:48).  Pretty much as described above.  Kinda cool to see.

 

2.  Powder Valley posted a statement on the primer shortage a while ago.  Pretty much confirmed much of what's been said here and in other threads.  Here's a link to that.

 

3.  I had a pretty significant stock of Magtech primers that were made in Brazil and they were excellent quality and 100% reliable.  But I haven't seen any in probably a couple years.  I wonder who imported them and why they stopped.  So, there definitely are good foreign sources if someone would import the stuff.

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On 11/24/2020 at 5:05 PM, rowdyb said:

Just listening to people who sell and make ammo for a living I would project no increase in availability of primers until 2022. Plan on shooting all of 2021 with what you have on hand.

 

Long term? This will be a blip 10 years from now.

I have a feeling that in 10 years, shooting sport as we know it, won't exist.

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16 hours ago, GrumpyOne said:

I've seen what IMA45DV8 has described on TV for I think, CCI. I believe it was on a "How it's made" show. 

 

9 hours ago, ltdmstr said:

1. Here's a link to a video on the Federal ammo plant that shows some of the primer manufacturing process (starting at 3:48).  Pretty much as described above.  Kinda cool to see.

 

 <snip>

 

When Grump said he'd seen a video of it, I thought, "I'd like to see that!", never thinking I could find it.

 

Thanks, Aaron, for posting that link. They said they don't run it much, but I even got to see a very old line of tooling that makes occasional runs of vintage paper-tubed shotshells. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, B585 said:

For me, I have about a year’s supply of ammo. I am am going to try to make this a positive...every time I go to the range, I am going to be very methodical in practice and certainly won’t just be slinging lead down range and calling it “practice”.  There will be a definite goal as to what I am practicing.

 

I'm sitting on 10K SPP and 5K SRP that I'll press into pistol service in an emergency.  Plus I keep 1000 rounds loaded at all times ready to go.  I figure I can stretch that for at least 24 months, 30 if I'm stingy.  Like someone else said, range sessions will be very focused from now on.

 

I'll be doing a lot more long range rifle shooting, as I'm sitting fat with nearly 15K LRP and LRMPs, at least 1200 30 cal match bullets, and 20 lbs of powder. 

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If you shoot 2 matches a month and a day at the range, 500 rounds should do it. If you do that every month that's only 6,000 rounds. For some shooters that's a lot but for many competitors that would be a reduction in shooting. But its still not completely stopping. Many people would like to shoot much more but most have probably stocked up. I'm surprised that experienced shooters would be caught short at a time like this.

 

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20 minutes ago, bigfish said:

You would think some of the imports would be trying to capitalize on the shortage in the US. Nobody importing primers, or is this a global issue?

 

This is not a global issue.  The US has a very different set of political and cultural circumstances than the rest of the world.

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People are trying to import primers, but they aren't something you want to put on a plane, so boat shipping plus paperwork on both ends = time and cost.  Besides, the overseas people know that loaded ammo has more profit too, so that's what they'll be selling until that demand runs out.

 

If it's anything like the last panic, the wave may crash quickly when it finally does-- rational people that need supplies put in multiple back orders, then when one hits, they cancel the rest.  So there's probably 3-10x as many back orders as there are actual sales to be had.  Sort of like the 22LR panics of a few years ago.  Went from people staking out Walmarts to "buy as many as you want" in a month or two.

 

When that happens, who knows.

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On 11/29/2020 at 10:47 AM, shred said:

If it's anything like the last panic, the wave may crash quickly when it finally does-- rational people that need supplies put in multiple back orders, then when one hits, they cancel the rest.  So there's probably 3-10x as many back orders as there are actual sales to be had.  Sort of like the 22LR panics of a few years ago.  Went from people staking out Walmarts to "buy as many as you want" in a month or two.

 

When that happens, who knows.

 

When that happens the smart people will buy it cheap and stack it deep and the dumb ones will continue being dumb.

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On 11/25/2020 at 3:31 PM, ima45dv8 said:

There was a hole in the concrete block wall with a small conveyor coming through it. A rack of maybe 100 primer cups would come in that way. The folks working in there would use something like a stiff squeegee to scrap a small amount of the green explosive paste off a chunk on the table (maybe the size of two sandwiches stacked up), and then smear it into the cups. They had to swipe it a few times to get the fill just right in their expert and practised eyes. When done they would put the tray back on the conveyor and send it out the other hole in the wall. I don't recall when or how the anvils were inserted. Maybe they were already in the cups when they arrived. I can't remember. 

 

The 'guide' was explaining about why the humidity level was at/almost 100% to keep the stuff from lighting off spontaneously, and it's stored in water. In its native state, if it gets dry, even the lightest touch imaginable to pick it up and return it to it's water bath could cause a tremendous explosion. He also explained how they're constantly linked to weather radar to know when to shut it down and get out. If there's lightning within 5 miles (pretty sure that was the distance) they Stop! and exit. The storage bunkers for the finished product are rather small (maybe 5'x5', on stilts) and spaced far apart out in a secured pasture on the property. They looked to have 15-20 yards between them. 

 

I had serious visions of some super-automated process before I went in there, like the rest of the facility. Once I learned the very high level of risk they were faced with, and how manual the process is, I just don't know how they could do it faster without simply duplicating that small area and process -- an expensive and dangerous proposition, at best. 

 

Remember, these folks have been the business of automated ammo manufacturing for a long time (what? over a hundred years?), and this is how they feel they have to do it. 

 

It was downright spooky, and my feet were itching to get the Hell out of there.

And I thought watching the youtube videos of guys remanufacturing used primers was hokey/loony.  I mean the compound pourers are mad chemists that we truly undervalue and this story you shared proves it. Any info on the match grade vs standard federal primers?  I believe the rumor was the match grade ones are poured by more experienced folks was the primary difference, just curious if anyone truly knows.  Thanks for sharing!  

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On 11/25/2020 at 10:15 PM, ltdmstr said:

1. Here's a link to a video on the Federal ammo plant that shows some of the primer manufacturing process (starting at 3:48).  Pretty much as described above.  Kinda cool to see.

 

2.  Powder Valley posted a statement on the primer shortage a while ago.  Pretty much confirmed much of what's been said here and in other threads.  Here's a link to that.

 

3.  I had a pretty significant stock of Magtech primers that were made in Brazil and they were excellent quality and 100% reliable.  But I haven't seen any in probably a couple years.  I wonder who imported them and why they stopped.  So, there definitely are good foreign sources if someone would import the stuff.

Thanks for the links.

Very informative.

I used Magtech primers also.  Not a problem unlike Winchester.

 

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On 11/25/2020 at 4:13 PM, GrumpyOne said:

I've seen what IMA45DV8 has described on TV for I think, CCI. I believe it was on a "How it's made" show. 

It was an old Shooting USA I saw it on. I thought it was at Federal. No big deal but was interesting how they made and loaded the priming compound.

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The good news is that most ammo companies are producing at record levels. Obviously demand is still outpacing supply but more ammo is being produced today than in any other time in our history.

 

Once complicating factor is that there are over 7 million new gun owners out there. So the demand pool has grown along with the people who are loading up or stockpiling. 

 

I know for a fact that the ammo shortages are having a negative impact on ranges that are out of ammo. Despite the run up a range without ammo doesn't have near as many shooters and revenue is obviously negatively impacted. 

 

I know later last summer many people were rationing and trying to figure out what matches to shoot and how to extend their supply. Intuitively it would make sense, if that was more wide spread, that the ammo shortage has impacted participation. Where that gets muddied though, IMO, is COVID also caused a lot of matches to not happen so around here at least if you didn't sign up within minutes of practicscore allowing you to sign up you were SOL. That need to be on the sign up would imply record participation.

 

Of all the things I've heard it's that ammo is the long tail. That guns will become available sooner than ammo will become more readily available. And I believe this. As noted primer facilities are highly specialized and to my knowledge can not be attached to an ammo facility. So that further complicates things. 

 

I think I'm all set for next year at this point. I don't practice... at all... so that helps (well, it helps with ammo consumption it obviously hurts my performance but I don't dry fire either - soooo I gots ammo :) )

 

But yes I do think it may impact things. And I do like the idea of matches and ranges taking those little steps to help the cause. Maybe instead of a normal match being 150 rounds you make it 125 or so. Or maybe instead of 6 stages you do 5. Just little things that keep people shooting while being sympathetic to the issues of supply.

 

In terms of the long term I don't see ammo shortages having a drastic impact. At least not by themselves. There's no doubt that things will get challenging though via legislation, or executive order, or any number of other factors like local municipalities.

Edited by j1b
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