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How much do you think the ammo and primer shortgage will affect uspsa in the long term


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my area is pretty much closing for winter.  a few matches here and there through the winter.  season starts up again in feb/march go through oct so about 7 months .  just shooting matches 4 times a month will burn up 1k . i have enough for one season (10k) and that is it unless i find primers .

 

we had a match this weekend and speaking to some of the other shooters , a lot are like me in that they have enough for the next season.  some said they are out unless they can find ammo at reasonable prices.  these are mostly the non reloaders 

 

the talk is there won't be stuff for at least a year and maybe even longer.  if this rings true, how do you think it will affect uspsa in the next couple years . 

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I started this game a month after Obama got elected. Man did I learn quickly to buy as much as my wallet could bare. It eventually came back to normal in a year or so. Then Sandy Hook happened and it was actually worse but by then I had enough primer and powder to last me years. It eventually came back again in a year or so. Even though I was well stocked I bought powder and primers every now and then when times were good. 

  It seems to always come back. When it does, sell a kidney or whatever it takes and start filling a pallet with powder and primers. Once you are well stocked on the two components that go out of stock first every time a politician farts, start buying bullets.

  My first real bulk ammo purchase was believe it or not at Dick's sporting goods in the winter of 08. I bought 4 cases of 9mm Blazer Brass for $6.99 a box. I still have half of it since I soon realized buying ammo for this game is dumb and started reloading.

  It will pass. Just be prepared when it does.

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Just listening to people who sell and make ammo for a living I would project no increase in availability of primers until 2022. Plan on shooting all of 2021 with what you have on hand.

 

Long term? This will be a blip 10 years from now.

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Discord and random luck have been great for me so far so since the craziness started. Scored 10k SPPs, 5k SRPs, and 5k SPMPs so I'm good for probably 2 years and it should be back to normal by then.

 

I also learned to stack it deep during the Obama years but didn't have space to reload so I bought ammo by the case when it was cheap. Now that I'm into reloading I'll stock up on primers and powder once things go back to normal.

 

I think the covid lockdowns will have more of an impact that components, whether it's ranges closing or people losing their jobs.

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Eventually the libtards will realize the way to kneecap us is via "primer restrictions."  The key is to look out for and respond to that threat.  There is a reason we can get bullets, brass, and (somewhat) powder now.  We know what matters.

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i almost ran out when this madness all kicked off, but i was lucky enough to score 20k primers from a few shooting buddies. 

i had a stack of about 15k brass and randomly ordered 8 lb jugs of powder here and there until i had about 120 lbs of powder.  i shoot anywhere from 4-10 matches a month from march till about October though, so i probably have enough for the next year,  Ill be looking to restock in a few months so i can push out through 2022 still shooting matches 

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So— there are 2 primer plants I have been told of... in the US starting up... I think the shortage will last until they get moving.. then to compete the other plants will start producing more... 

until covid is truly under control— then we will be at a lurch too.. I know 1 primer plant that was hit hard ... and that hurt production... 

 

 

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12 hours ago, rowdyb said:

Just listening to people who sell and make ammo for a living I would project no increase in availability of primers until 2022. Plan on shooting all of 2021 with what you have on hand.

 

Long term? This will be a blip 10 years from now.

Are they forecasting increased manufactured ammunition before then?

 

Directly to the topic, already seeing matches running light on people. One location that tends to run shot heavy steel matches has set up the option to only shoot half the match stages. This is despite some clubs still being shut or limited due to Da Vid.

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Around me, Prod and CO are down somewhat because the non-reloaders cannot find ammo to buy.  Some of them had a stockpile of 45 ammo, so they are now shooting SS.  Participation at matches is about 60% of normal.  Some due to ammo and/or component shortages, and some due to Covid.

 

Most of the reloaders I know are complaining about lack of primers.  I just swapped 4000 WLPs for 4000 CCI 500s.  That brings me up to 10,000, so I'm good for a while.  If they keep cancelling matches because of Covid I'll be good for all of next year.  Even so, I'll be curtailing practice and maybe skipping some USPSA matches I don't enjoy as much.

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11 hours ago, RadarTech said:

So— there are 2 primer plants I have been told of... in the US starting up... I think the shortage will last until they get moving.. then to compete the other plants will start producing more... 

until covid is truly under control— then we will be at a lurch too.. I know 1 primer plant that was hit hard ... and that hurt production... 

 

 

Its all about the $$$ Like Automobiles you're not going to sell parts(Primers) when you can sell cars& trucks.   For now at least. My 2 cents

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I was lucky enough to tour the Federal plant north of Minneapolis twice while on business trips in the area. It was fascinating. 

 

Going into the room where they make primers was eye-opening. And scarey. It's a very manual process using a highly volatile compound. The people who work in the reinforced concrete block room are paid more (think of it as hazard pay). I honestly wouldn't want to do it.

 

There were only 2 people each time, and I seem to remember that's how the place was set up. It's not a large space. Their production was sufficient for the demands at that time, but expanding the operation to increase capability didn't seem like a realistic option. 

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17 hours ago, RadarTech said:

So— there are 2 primer plants I have been told of... in the US starting up... I think the shortage will last until they get moving.. then to compete the other plants will start producing more... 

until covid is truly under control— then we will be at a lurch too.. I know 1 primer plant that was hit hard ... and that hurt production... 

 

 

 

Which companies?

 

Who is your source?  Someone from the industry who is high enough to know or your local gunstore gum flapper?

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1 hour ago, ima45dv8 said:

I was lucky enough to tour the Federal plant north of Minneapolis twice while on business trips in the area. It was fascinating. 

 

Going into the room where they make primers was eye-opening. And scarey. It's a very manual process using a highly volatile compound. The people who work in the reinforced concrete block room are paid more (think of it as hazard pay). I honestly wouldn't want to do it.

 

There were only 2 people each time, and I seem to remember that's how the place was set up. It's not a large space. Their production was sufficient for the demands at that time, but expanding the operation to increase capability didn't seem like a realistic option. 

 

I would imagine that primer mfg equipment is very specialized, not something you can just order, and very capital intensive.

 

Not something you can scale up quickly and then idle when demand falls back down.

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There was a hole in the concrete block wall with a small conveyor coming through it. A rack of maybe 100 primer cups would come in that way. The folks working in there would use something like a stiff squeegee to scrap a small amount of the green explosive paste off a chunk on the table (maybe the size of two sandwiches stacked up), and then smear it into the cups. They had to swipe it a few times to get the fill just right in their expert and practised eyes. When done they would put the tray back on the conveyor and send it out the other hole in the wall. I don't recall when or how the anvils were inserted. Maybe they were already in the cups when they arrived. I can't remember. 

 

The 'guide' was explaining about why the humidity level was at/almost 100% to keep the stuff from lighting off spontaneously, and it's stored in water. In its native state, if it gets dry, even the lightest touch imaginable to pick it up and return it to it's water bath could cause a tremendous explosion. He also explained how they're constantly linked to weather radar to know when to shut it down and get out. If there's lightning within 5 miles (pretty sure that was the distance) they Stop! and exit. The storage bunkers for the finished product are rather small (maybe 5'x5', on stilts) and spaced far apart out in a secured pasture on the property. They looked to have 15-20 yards between them. 

 

I had serious visions of some super-automated process before I went in there, like the rest of the facility. Once I learned the very high level of risk they were faced with, and how manual the process is, I just don't know how they could do it faster without simply duplicating that small area and process -- an expensive and dangerous proposition, at best. 

 

Remember, these folks have been the business of automated ammo manufacturing for a long time (what? over a hundred years?), and this is how they feel they have to do it. 

 

It was downright spooky, and my feet were itching to get the Hell out of there.

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29 minutes ago, ima45dv8 said:

There was a hole in the concrete block wall with a small conveyor coming through it. A rack of maybe 100 primer cups would come in that way. The folks working in there would use something like a stiff squeegee to scrap a small amount of the green explosive paste off a chunk on the table (maybe the size of two sandwiches stacked up), and then smear it into the cups. They had to swipe it a few times to get the fill just right in their expert and practised eyes. When done they would put the tray back on the conveyor and send it out the other hole in the wall. I don't recall when or how the anvils were inserted. Maybe they were already in the cups when they arrived. I can't remember. 

 

The 'guide' was explaining about why the humidity level was at/almost 100% to keep the stuff from lighting off spontaneously, and it's stored in water. In its native state, if it gets dry, even the lightest touch imaginable to pick it up and return it to it's water bath could cause a tremendous explosion. He also explained how they're constantly linked to weather radar to know when to shut it down and get out. If there's lightning within 5 miles (pretty sure that was the distance) they Stop! and exit. The storage bunkers for the finished product are rather small (maybe 5'x5', on stilts) and spaced far apart out in a secured pasture on the property. They looked to have 15-20 yards between them. 

 

I had serious visions of some super-automated process before I went in there, like the rest of the facility. Once I learned the very high level of risk they were faced with, and how manual the process is, I just don't know how they could do it faster without simply duplicating that small area and process -- an expensive and dangerous proposition, at best. 

 

Remember, these folks have been the business of automated ammo manufacturing for a long time (what? over a hundred years?), and this is how they feel they have to do it. 

 

It was downright spooky, and my feet were itching to get the Hell out of there.

Never would have guessed that.......thanks for sharing.

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