Is lack of ammo starting to hurt participation?

[ltdmstr]

Vista Outdoors (CCI, Speer, etc.) announced earlier this week that it has more than $1B in outstanding orders for ammo.  They're running 24/7 and just can't keep up.  Although they're adding capacity, they're doing so cautiously bc of how things have gone in the past. 

[SGT_Schultz]

1 hour ago, ltdmstr said:

Vista Outdoors (CCI, Speer, etc.) announced earlier this week that it has more than $1B in outstanding orders for ammo.  They're running 24/7 and just can't keep up.  Although they're adding capacity, they're doing so cautiously bc of how things have gone in the past. 

 

As you might imagine, high volume ammunition manufacturing is a very capital intensive process.  Not only that, the equipment is likely very specialized and single purpose.  Both of those things mean that standing up additional production capacity (once you're running 24/7) is both extremely expensive, long lead time, and pretty much irreversible (unless you take a capital write off).

[pskys2]

9 hours ago, SGT_Schultz said:

 

That remains to be seen

Yep are we the frog in a slow boil?  or are we about to be dropped in the boiling pot?

[nasty618]

9 hours ago, SGT_Schultz said:

I don't have the time or inclination to try to educate you

Yet you have time to chime in with your opinion on how I should think or express mine... Hmm.

[The Donald]

1 hour ago, ltdmstr said:

Vista Outdoors (CCI, Speer, etc.) announced earlier this week that it has more than $1B in outstanding orders for ammo.  They're running 24/7 and just can't keep up.  Although they're adding capacity, they're doing so cautiously bc of how things have gone in the past. 

Vista Outdoors buying up more and more companies will help make ammo and primers more scarce. Vista has CCI, Speer, Federal and now Remington. Not only is that ammo but 3 of 4 major suppliers of primers in the U.S. 

On an educated guess I’m figuring that any chance of imported primers drying up completely. 

[SGT_Schultz]

31 minutes ago, The Donald said:

Vista Outdoors buying up more and more companies will help make ammo and primers more scarce. Vista has CCI, Speer, Federal and now Remington. Not only is that ammo but 3 of 4 major suppliers of primers in the U.S. 

On an educated guess I’m figuring that any chance of imported primers drying up completely. 

 

There isn't a single ammunition maker today out there who will sell primers at wholesale when they can make a hell of lot more coin turning them into ammo with orders pouring in.  Doesn't matter how many brands they own.

 

 

 

[ltdmstr]

54 minutes ago, The Donald said:

Vista Outdoors buying up more and more companies will help make ammo and primers more scarce. Vista has CCI, Speer, Federal and now Remington. Not only is that ammo but 3 of 4 major suppliers of primers in the U.S. 

On an educated guess I’m figuring that any chance of imported primers drying up completely. 

 

I highly doubt they'll reduce supply the way things are going.  Maybe later if demand falls and the economics change.  But I don't see that happening any time soon.  More likely it'll mean higher prices.  As for imports, I had a pretty significant quantity of Magtech primers that were Brazilian manufacture.  They were 100% reliable and zero issues.  I'd be happy to buy more if they were available, but can't find them anywhere (big surprise).  Could be the import stuff is going to ammo production as well.

[mvmojo]

41 minutes ago, SGT_Schultz said:

 

There isn't a single ammunition maker today out there who will sell primers at wholesale when they can make a hell of lot more coin turning them into ammo with orders pouring in.  Doesn't matter how many brands they own.

 

 

 

It's not about how many companies you buy or own, business is about maximizing profits, both short term and long term (if you're not managing for the short term, there is no long term!).  Whether you own 20 companies or just one, company owners (shareholders) demand profits and the job of management is to maximize them.  Vista Outdoors (symbol: VSTO) stock has been rising year to date as gun ownership increases.  If you bought their stock back in March at $4.80/share when Covid was recognized as a wide-spread threat, or even in May just before the George Floyd debacle at $7.46, you would have tripled, quadrupled or better your profits (Friday 11/12/20 close of $21.90).  The current stock price increase is roughly in line with the increase in ammo prices, 3x-4x.  So, if you had bought ammo back in March or bought VSTO back in March you'd be in about the same position now assuming you sold your ammo today at a profit or sold your VSTO at a profit and bought ammo at todays prices.  Funny how the free market works!

 

 

[Zincwarrior]

At our falling steel match Saturday we usually pull 35 - 45 shooters (bays limit to three squads).  It was done to 20 shooters, mostly the hardcores.

[Sarge]

1 hour ago, Zincwarrior said:

At our falling steel match Saturday we usually pull 35 - 45 shooters (bays limit to three squads).  It was done to 20 shooters, mostly the hardcores.

There are a ton of casual shooters who don’t reload. They won’t shoot matches for awhile.

[gerritm]

Just a recent observation in the Houston metro area USPSA matches. The weekend matches still have a pretty good attendance, but the weekday practice type matches are slowing down. We have completely quit shooting them for now. Picking & choosing our favorite weekend matches. 

 

gerritm

[Umbrarian]

On 11/14/2020 at 6:57 PM, SGT_Schultz said:

 

There isn't a single ammunition maker today out there who will sell primers at wholesale when they can make a hell of lot more coin turning them into ammo with orders pouring in.  Doesn't matter how many brands they own.

 

 

 

CCI seems to be releasing primers. I have seen them for sales several times but they sell out quick.

[ranger]

I got active in PRS like shooting - seeing a move to PRS like 22 matches due to component shortages especially primers

[pskys2]

On 11/14/2020 at 4:37 PM, ltdmstr said:

Vista Outdoors (CCI, Speer, etc.) announced earlier this week that it has more than $1B in outstanding orders for ammo.  They're running 24/7 and just can't keep up.  Although they're adding capacity, they're doing so cautiously bc of how things have gone in the past. 

So one Corporation now "owns" CCI, Speer, Remington, Federal...?  That kind of monopoly scares the bejesus out of me.  Especially with all of the "Woke Capitalism" infecting huge Corporations.

I can see a future where components, or even ammunition, aren't released to the "public" for our own good! 

[Zincwarrior]

13 hours ago, pskys2 said:

So one Corporation now "owns" CCI, Speer, Remington, Federal...?  That kind of monopoly scares the bejesus out of me.  Especially with all of the "Woke Capitalism" infecting huge Corporations.

I can see a future where components, or even ammunition, aren't released to the "public" for our own good! 

Forgive my ignorance, but what other US manufacture of ammunition is there at this point (all parts of as in Federal for example).

[Stony Lane]

From Guns and Ammo:

 

Though there are dozens of major and minor ammunition manufacturers in the U.S., only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. Those four firms feed the entire primer supply including ammunition sold to the military and law enforcement. Millions upon millions of primers are produced every year by these companies.

[Stony Lane]

more from Guns and Ammo (Aug.):

 

Internationally, primers are manufactured by several firms in different parts of the world. Armscor in the Philippines, for example, Sellier & Bellot in the Czech Republic, Fiocchi in Italy and JSC in Russia are some of the more prominent companies. An industry insider told G&A that several million primers are currently en route from Europe to the U.S. by way of ship, which may help meet at least some of the demand for loaded ammunition. Still, those primers need to arrive, be offloaded, clear customs and then be distributed to the various manufacturers who can use them to produce ammunition. This will take time. 

[ltdmstr]

45 minutes ago, Stony Lane said:

more from Guns and Ammo (Aug.):

 

Internationally, primers are manufactured by several firms in different parts of the world. Armscor in the Philippines, for example, Sellier & Bellot in the Czech Republic, Fiocchi in Italy and JSC in Russia are some of the more prominent companies. An industry insider told G&A that several million primers are currently en route from Europe to the U.S. by way of ship, which may help meet at least some of the demand for loaded ammunition. Still, those primers need to arrive, be offloaded, clear customs and then be distributed to the various manufacturers who can use them to produce ammunition. This will take time. 

 

Several million?  That's next to nothing.  Lots of people buy at 50-100k at a time just for personal use.  Doesn't take many of those types to snap up "several million."  A couple dozen full containers worth might calm things down a bit.

[Zincwarrior]

1 hour ago, Stony Lane said:

From Guns and Ammo:

 

Though there are dozens of major and minor ammunition manufacturers in the U.S., only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. Those four firms feed the entire primer supply including ammunition sold to the military and law enforcement. Millions upon millions of primers are produced every year by these companies.

So its Vista and Olin Corp? Mmm...

[Silver_Surfer]

I'm surprised the round count at our matches hasn't changed.................yet.

[Intheshaw1]

1 hour ago, Silver_Surfer said:

I'm surprised the round count at our matches hasn't changed.................yet.

I'd rather shoot less matches than less rounds a match. For me to spend all day at a match, I want to shoot a lot.

[Joe4d]

well dont look at gun powder suppliers. Same thing is happening. Hodgdon now has its own, IMR, Winchester, Goex and recently added Accurate, Ramshot, and Blackhorn. Pretty much everyone but Alliant and imports..

[Umbrarian]

8 hours ago, ltdmstr said:

 

Several million?  That's next to nothing.  Lots of people buy at 50-100k at a time just for personal use.  Doesn't take many of those types to snap up "several million."  A couple dozen full containers worth might calm things down a bit.

 

Yeah I could distribute a half-million just between a few friends.

[Silver_Surfer]

5 hours ago, Intheshaw1 said:

I'd rather shoot less matches than less rounds a match. For me to spend all day at a match, I want to shoot a lot.

I do hear what you're saying but I was referring to match participation.  This past Sunday  I talked to some of our newer shooters and they mentioned rationing ammo(Primers) to last the year! 

Heck if things don't change only a handful of guys will be shooting matches next year.

[Umbrarian]

5 minutes ago, Silver_Surfer said:

Heck if things don't change only a handful of guys will be shooting matches next year.

 

I know a lot of folks rationing right now who will run out in jan/feb/mar. If something does not change, there's gonna be a lot of pissed off golfers dealing with long lines on saturdays.