COVID-19 and the 2020 IPSC HG WORLD SHOOT

[SGT_Schultz]

18 hours ago, CSEMARTIN said:

  We are dealing with a real threat that has disastrous implications.   

 

For old and/or frail people

Edited March 15, 2020 by SGT_Schultz

[Schutzenmeister]

2 minutes ago, SGT_Schultz said:

 

For old and/or frail people

 

As one, who through no fault of my own - other than by my birthdate, falls into this category, I find this statement somewhat callous.

[Ken6PPC]

2 minutes ago, Schutzenmeister said:

 

As one, who through no fault of my own - other than by my birthdate, falls into this category, I find this statement somewhat callous.

 

^ What he said...  

 

You too will be considered "old and/or frail" someday - if you are lucky enough to get there!  

[CSEMARTIN]

2 hours ago, SGT_Schultz said:

 

For old and/or frail people

Not true!

 

This threat applies to diabetics, anyone with high blood pressure, anyone immune compromised such as transplant patients or those on chemotherapy for cancer. And everyone can be affected if our hospitals run out of supplies and equipment.

 

Edit: some comments removed so as to not upset anyone.

Edited March 15, 2020 by CSEMARTIN

[rustychev]

1 hour ago, Schutzenmeister said:

 

As one, who through no fault of my own - other than by my birthdate, falls into this category, I find this statement somewhat callous.

It is callous but for the most part true.

 

For people who are 55-60 and younger and dont have a pre existing condition this is for the most part a non event.

 

Im in a field that will not shutdown and I will be exposed at some point.  

 

If you think the above was callous skip the next thing I am writing.

 

In the long run this could end up being a good thing for the US and the rest of the world.  Current medical practices can keep people alive a long time but also most people us about 85% of the medical care they use in their lifetime in the last few years. The most use for the least return.  triage for the sick will be looking at age as a big part of this.  Do we use a vent for the 30 year old who will likely recover or the 79 year old who likely wont you can only try and save one of them.

[Sarge]

27 minutes ago, rustychev said:

It is callous but for the most part true.

 

For people who are 55-60 and younger and dont have a pre existing condition this is for the most part a non event.

 

Im in a field that will not shutdown and I will be exposed at some point.  

 

If you think the above was callous skip the next thing I am writing.

 

In the long run this could end up being a good thing for the US and the rest of the world.  Current medical practices can keep people alive a long time but also most people us about 85% of the medical care they use in their lifetime in the last few years. The most use for the least return.  triage for the sick will be looking at age as a big part of this.  Do we use a vent for the 30 year old who will likely recover or the 79 year old who likely wont you can only try and save one of them.

If the 30 year old is a callous prick then the 79 year old gets saved in my opinion.

[Schutzenmeister]

4 minutes ago, rustychev said:

In the long run this could end up being a good thing for the US and the rest of the world.  Current medical practices can keep people alive a long time but also most people us about 85% of the medical care they use in their lifetime in the last few years. The most use for the least return.  triage for the sick will be looking at age as a big part of this.  Do we use a vent for the 30 year old who will likely recover or the 79 year old who likely wont you can only try and save one of them.

 

I understand, perhaps better than you can imagine, what you are saying.  My wife and I are both retired medical professionals.  (Her a physician, me an administrator.)  We both spent the majority of our careers in the military.  The concept of triage is something that is not foreign to me, along with the concept of there are only so many supplies with which to work.  (My last assignment was in medical logistics …)

 

But some folks, even on this forum, seem to be missing the point.  A large number of serious or fatal outcomes CAN be minimized by some of the actions the government and medical communities are taking right now.  The objective is to avoid, as much as possible, huge numbers of folks needing intensive measures all at the same time.  If you think weeding out the "old and infirm" is a good thing you are BEYOND callous.  You are MORBID.

 

I suggest for reference you do a quick Google review of the aftermath of the Spanish Flu 100 years ago.  The effects on civilization and society were enormous in the decades that followed.

 

What I'm NOT saying is that we should abandon our matches willy nilly … At this juncture that would be an overreaction.

 

What I AM saying is that getting through this with minimal deleterious effects to the population as a whole is significantly more important than a few shooting matches.  Despite what some seem to think - Bullets WILL NOT stop viruses!

 

(Apologies for the rant …)

[IHAVEGAS]

 

57 minutes ago, rustychev said:

 

 

In the long run this could end up being a good thing for the US and the rest of the world. 

 

If you assume that a disease will come along to kill off every generation as they age (and skip the infants) then you could see the reduced life expectancy as a financial and resource benefit to the young. Otherwise it is just a painful blip that has no lasting effect except perhaps a delay in our learning how to best accommodate current life expectancy.   

[GJM]

While Covid 19 might have little effect on your health, as a healthy younger shooter, it is actually about more than just you. The spread is about numbers and the rate of exposure, and if you give it to others, and especially those in the vulnerable categories, it puts at risk our first responders (doctors, nurses, police and fire),  it can overwhelm our country’s critical health care capability, and maybe even impact you if you have the bad luck to get into a problem where you need hospital care and the beds and medical professionals are either too sick or too busy to look after you.
 

I heard Virginia just banned gatherings over 100, and I would not be surprised if other states follow, with increasingly lower limits. Sort of gives the concept of an outlaw match a whole new meaning, if having a match violates the law. 

[Suer]

 

My topic is "COVID-19 and the 2020 IPSC HG WORLD SHOOT"

 

The idea is in our opinion it can or can't held in November 28 – December 5, 2020 
Pattaya, Thailand.(https://www.ipscmatches.org/worldshoot2020/)

 

And in my infomations,I think  the 2020 IPSC HG WORLD SHOOT" held in Thailand but not in 2020.

 

P.S. I'm not get any advantage from the match but I pround of my country  that is the Match Organizers .

 

What's your opinion?,please.

[YVK]

4 hours ago, rustychev said:

 

 

For people who are 55-60 and younger and dont have a pre existing condition this is for the most part a non event.

 

 

 

And you know this how? Because older people will have higher mortality, with this or any infection?

 

The first Italian patient was a 38 yo marathon runner. He just got out of ICU last week. There is not a high chance he'll run another marathon again, or even run at all.

 

The first US published case is a 30some man with high triglycerides. He required  an experimental drug to turn around, an at the the time of publication was still hospitalized, day 10. The compassionate use supplies of that drug are running out, btw.

 

There are scores of young Chinese docs, including their whistleblower, in 20s and 30s, who are dead. I just read a pathology report yesterday, case series of Chinese kids; again, this was a pathology report. I've had patients with a non-COVID coronavirus ARDS, they didn't look too hot for months and months. 

 

This will be a non-event for people who will have mild cases. For clinically relevant cases it will be pretty much an event, anything from financial implications of prolonged hospital stays, to residual lung function or neuro-cognitive etc losses associated with ICU and ventilation treatment, to deaths.  If the case volume explodes according to the worst possible prediction, there will be care delivery shortages and associated mistakes too, and that affects outcomes. There are a lot of young, very sick people with this crap in Europe and some series show 50% of patients without co-morbid conditions.  Younger age has been a predictor of better survival but nobody has said anything about rates of residual disability and loss of function.

 

As a general statement, it totally blows my mind that the clubs are continuing their matches when EVERY public health, medical and govt organization has asked to limit nonessential public gatherings and advocated for social distancing. I mean, hold off for a couple of weeks and see how things develop seems like an easy thing to do.

I see children give up their toys and candy with more ease than how adults, supposedly mature enough to own guns, deal with a request to postpone their weekly gratification event for the sake of public health.

 

 

 

 

 

[Schutzenmeister]

Suer

 

Your question was asked and has been answered.  It's too soon to predict what might happen in November.

 

The final call is in the hands of Vitaly, the EC and the match organizers.  Give it a rest.

[IHAVEGAS]

1 hour ago, YVK said:

This will be a non-event for people who will have mild cases.

 

That raises a question which I have not seen explored. 

 

Any insights on why some seem to have only mild issues (genetics, previous disease history, general fitness, sex, etc.)?

[Ken6PPC]

29 minutes ago, IHAVEGAS said:

 

That raises a question which I have not seen explored. 

 

Any insights on why some seem to have only mild issues (genetics, previous disease history, general fitness, sex, etc.)?

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[Schutzenmeister]

A potential game-changer just in … Earlier today the CDC recommended that all Mass Gathering Events of 50 or more people in person (to include sporting events) be canceled or postponed for the next 8 weeks.

 

Reference:  https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-events/mass-gatherings-ready-for-covid-19.html

 

I'm not taking a public position on this, merely posting the reference and asking the question:  Do you think this likely to affect the major (and possibly even some local) matches in the coming 2 months?  (I'm not sure how we could organize a "virtual" National Championship for what it's worth …)

[Soderquist]

So...we cancel all events of 50 or more people for the next 8 weeks. Unless you are a prepper you will need groceries in the next couple weeks, so Walmart will be the nexus of the spread at that point. I watched an interview with government medical expert Michael Osterholm and he said that when the human interference times out the virus will resume passing through the entire population. We will all be exposed and will have to deal with it.

[Soderquist]

2 hours ago, YVK said:

 

And you know this how? Because older people will have higher mortality, with this or any infection?

 

The first Italian patient was a 38 yo marathon runner. He just got out of ICU last week. There is not a high chance he'll run another marathon again, or even run at all.

 

The first US published case is a 30some man with high triglycerides. He required  an experimental drug to turn around, an at the the time of publication was still hospitalized, day 10. The compassionate use supplies of that drug are running out, btw.

 

There are scores of young Chinese docs, including their whistleblower, in 20s and 30s, who are dead. I just read a pathology report yesterday, case series of Chinese kids; again, this was a pathology report. I've had patients with a non-COVID coronavirus ARDS, they didn't look too hot for months and months. 

 

This will be a non-event for people who will have mild cases. For clinically relevant cases it will be pretty much an event, anything from financial implications of prolonged hospital stays, to residual lung function or neuro-cognitive etc losses associated with ICU and ventilation treatment, to deaths.  If the case volume explodes according to the worst possible prediction, there will be care delivery shortages and associated mistakes too, and that affects outcomes. There are a lot of young, very sick people with this crap in Europe and some series show 50% of patients without co-morbid conditions.  Younger age has been a predictor of better survival but nobody has said anything about rates of residual disability and loss of function.

 

As a general statement, it totally blows my mind that the clubs are continuing their matches when EVERY public health, medical and govt organization has asked to limit nonessential public gatherings and advocated for social distancing. I mean, hold off for a couple of weeks and see how things develop seems like an easy thing to do.

I see children give up their toys and candy with more ease than how adults, supposedly mature enough to own guns, deal with a request to postpone their weekly gratification event for the sake of public health.

 

 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic#/media/File:Illustration_of_SARS-COV-2_Case_Fatality_Rate_200228_01-1.png

[Schutzenmeister]

27 minutes ago, Soderquist said:

Unless you are a prepper you will need groceries in the next couple weeks, so Walmart will be the nexus of the spread at that point.

 

Hey ... I didn't author the recommendation ... But I did read it.  It talks about mass gatherings, not grocery shopping.  Ya gotta eat to live and ya gotta buy food to eat.  It's disingenuous to imply we have to shoot matches to live, even if it seems that way at times.

[Soderquist]

3 minutes ago, Schutzenmeister said:

 

Hey ... I didn't author the recommendation ... But I did read it.  It talks about mass gatherings, not grocery shopping.  Ya gotta eat to live and ya gotta buy food to eat.  It's disingenuous to imply we have to shoot matches to live, even if it seems that way at times.

You ever been in a Walmart? There's usually more than 50 people there. I don't think the virus is going to take time out because it was a necessary gathering of people.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Soderquist

[Schutzenmeister]

Some things are necessary risks ... others less so.  As I said, I didn't write it.  If you want to look up their recommendations on how to go grocery shopping, have at it.  But that wasn't the question I posed.

[Soderquist]

I read the advice from CDC on mass gatherings https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/large-events/mass-gatherings-ready-for-covid-19.html

Notice it says "does not apply to the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses." This is BS. Either it's necessary to stop large gatherings or it isn't. There's always a governmnt official with some advice. 

[Schutzenmeister]

Dude ... Your argument shouldn't be with me.  Go talk to the CDC on that issue.

 

I count 3 USPSA Nationals in that timeframe.  I'm not saying they should be cancelled/postponed or not.  I'm starting to wonder if they will be.

[YVK]

1 hour ago, IHAVEGAS said:

 

That raises a question which I have not seen explored. 

 

Any insights on why some seem to have only mild issues (genetics, previous disease history, general fitness, sex, etc.)?

 

No, I have no insights yet. The situation is developing so fast, the objective information stream can't keep up. Colleagues at the areas that are affected are busy with treating people, not publishing papers. What's published is not peer-reviewed appropriately. We've social media posts and emails circulating with reports, and no confirmation of veracity. Stateside testing rates is dismal, we have no kits, CDC and govt f*#ked it up royally, and without wide testing we can't answer the demographic questions that you're asking. Koreans seem to have the mildest course from the countries that have been most affected, but they also test more in one week than we have countrywide so far.

 

 

[GJM]

Interesting opinion piece in the WSJ today, suggesting we are flying blind on Corona because of a lack of data, by virtue of insufficient testing. If we had good data, many decisions would be obvious.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-dangerous-to-test-only-the-sick-11584288494?mod=opinion_lead_pos8

[Schutzenmeister]

2 hours ago, IHAVEGAS said:

Any insights on why some seem to have only mild issues (genetics, previous disease history, general fitness, sex, etc.)?

 

It's a virus.  Viruses can be fickle female dogs.  It's not uncommon for it to take years of research to determine why they do what they do.  This is especially true for new strains.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Schutzenmeister