Estimating the High Hit Factor.

[dpeters8445]

When you all are going through your walk through before you shoot a stage, Do you try to make an educated guess on what the high hit factor will be so you can work the stage to your benifit by going for most of the points, or going for speed.

I think that there could be some benifit to this. What do you guys think? I guess an acurate estimation would be the key, but might be easier said then done. Anyone have any pointers?

[shred]

I want a "sometimes" button. I used to do it all the time, but now only do it if there's something like a prop, swinger or disappearing target that needs to be evaluated. BE converted me to the "shoot A's as rapidly as possible and let the HF be what it is" mentality over beers at the trivia question for this month, so the shooting part sorts itself out-- it's only the other stuff that needs figuring.

However, there's a whole lot to be said of being able to accurately estimate your time to run a stage.

[dpeters8445]

However, there's a whole lot to be said of being able to accurately estimate your time to run a stage.

I agree Shred. and if your looking to estimate the high HF on a stage, I guess you have to know who your competion is. Example would be, if your at a local match and there is only say 1 GM there compared to if your at a major and there are 20 GM's there. And then it would depend on the quality of the GM. Example would be that the High hit factor would probably be higher if your shooting against TGO compared to "Joe Grandbagger GM. And even then it's probably mostly a guess.

Maybe someone has got it figured out and can enlighten me.

[shred]

IMHO, the HHF is much less useful than estimating your own HF.

[kdj]

I try to do it but between lack of sufficient information to be accurate on estimating the time and the fact that I have trouble with arithmetic more complex than counting my fingers and toes, I'm not sure I ever get any useful information by doing so

I think this is a useful skill to have since it tells you when to stop trying to hit that last mini-popper at 40 yds and take the Mike (usually by the second shot so the extra 10 I have been known to try was not cost effective) so maybe with a little more experience it might become a useful tool.

Kevin

[mcoliver]

Count me in on the "sometimes" and "used to do it" camp.

I realized it was a futile attempt on my part to guess especially when I haven't really figured out how long it takes me to do the non-shooting stuff. However, I try to guess (for practice) short courses with only one or two positions and I'm usually 1 to 2 sec off my estimate.

[Garfield]

I know about estimating HF's for a stage and I have been wanting to get into that, but I just never seem to find the time.

I think it might be useful to estimate it though because you can better judge whether to take a M or not, as kdj pointed out.

[spook]

Another "sometimes" vote here.

[Skywalker]

K.I.S.S.

Shoot As as fast as you can!

[A33435]

I sometimes do estimate the HF and occasionally it influences the way i would should a stage. But also depending from how i am doing in the match thusfar.

Calculating the HF so you can better judge whether to take a M or not sounds like bullshit to me.

For the rare occasion (in the Netherlands) that the last target to shoot is a MPP or plate at long distance and you decide not to shoot it more than once after missing it the first time sounds more like gaming a stage.

Greetings

Adrie

[Yoda]

For the rare occasion (in the Netherlands) that the last target to shoot is a MPP or plate at long distance and you decide not to shoot it more than once after missing it the first time sounds more like gaming a stage.

Adrie,

this is just a matter of match tactics, just the same when you try to calculate whether to go for raw speed (and possibly drop a couple of points) or go for your points (and loose a little time). Of course both speed and accuracy are important, but you can improve your performance if you understand the mechanics of the scoring system.

Same case, different example - on the last target you fire one shot (two hits requested) and your gun has the occasional JAM FROM HELL which needs you to spend the next 5 seconds on clearing it. Do you fire the last shot or do you take the penalty for the Mike? This example is pretty obvious but the M and GM shooters have turned this into art and know exactly how to go through the stage. For us - mere mortals - it is more important to shoot as many points in the shortest time.

If you talk about gaming - I remember a stage in Denmark a number of years ago, consisting of 2 PP and 2 moving targets which completely disappeared. As the PP activated the moving targets they were designated as 10 point poppers. The clever guys from the second squad just shot the 2 PP and left the two targets alone. As the targets completely disappeared they did not get Mikes or FTE procedurals. 20 points in <2 seconds was a high hit factor which could not be achieved by waiting for the moving targets to be activated and fire 4 extra shots. This was all within the rules, but clearly not the intent of the stage designer.

[SmittyFL]

I spent a long time figuring out how to figure it out. Knowing my movement times, splits, transitions, etc. As well as calculating the hit factor. All that has been usefull information and I thought after I had it all figured out I would adjust the way I shoot stages because of it........ nope. I shoot as fast and accurately as I can 98% of the time.

Like shred said, the HHF doesn't mean anything. You have to know what YOUR HF will be on the stage prior to you shooting it.

It does come into play though, if you have a stage with a lot of steel and only a few paper targets for example. Those points on the paper, depending on your HF are going to be important because everybody is going to get 5 points for the steel. Or if you have a lot of props or DT's or movers, it helps to know. Mainly I use it when shooting revolver, if the stage finishes up with a bank of 4 targets depending on the HF it may be better to shoot one round on the last two targets and take two mikes vs. doing a 2+ sec standing reload.

I guess my final answer would be "there should have been a sometines option on the poll". I think it is helpful to know how to figure it out, but rarely will you adjust how you approach a stage because of it. I think you'll gain more out of the process, learning your transitions on a 40 yd popper and your splits on a 15 yd swinger for example.

[Jasonub]

dont worry about it, i just shoot a's as fast as i can and it made me hit top 10 recently

[PaulW]

Man this really got me thinking. I've had a bunch of people come up to me at local matches and say "so, what do you think you will shoot this stage in?" Most of the time I tell them I have no idea. I guess I could figue it out, pretty close anyways, but why?

No like a lot of the other members said if you have a disappearing target, or targets, it can be helpful to understand how to figure it out.

We did some testing the other day on a potential stage whereas all the paper targets were disappearing targets. There were roughly 4 or 5 pieces of steel. We first shot just the steel and calculated the HF. Then we shot a piece of paper along with the steel, calculated the HF. Then we shot the whole stage, and calculated the HF. No matter what we did it always worked out better if we shot all the paper. But that can of course change due to skill level and the danger level of the stage (i.e. Lots of no-shoots or tricky shots).

[eric nielsen]

I just try to guess "higher than 5" or "lower than 5". A rough estimate. If it's lower than 5.0 then I won't allow anything other than A hits.

You can guess based on how much time the course designer makes you do something that isn't shooting. That drops the hit factor.

Easy targets being presented to you one after another raises the hit factor.

[dpeters8445]

I just try to guess "higher than 5" or "lower than 5". A rough estimate. If it's lower than 5.0 then I won't allow anything other than A hits.

Caspian28r,

Now you got me thinking. You say anything under a 5 hit factor shoot all A's. I wonder if making up a general rule of thumb list could help out when shooting a stage. It might go something like this.

1-5 Hit Factor. Shoot all A's and make up any shot that is not an A. Focus on the accuracy more then the speed.

5-10 Hit Factor. Shoot as many A's as possible but don't make up any C's. Make up any D hit. Speed and hits are about equallily important.

10-and up Hit Factor. Shoot as many A's as possible but don't make up a charlie or an ocational D. Speed is more important then Hits.

I just threw the above out there cause I'm still learning about hit factors. Where would you put your cut off numbers for the hit factor for each catigory?

[shred]

Pretty much any HF under 5 is more accuracy-biased and anything over 10 is speed-biased. Think of points per second. At 5 HF, each point is worth 0.2 seconds. At 10 HF, each point is worth 0.1 second. Can you make up the points in less time than it takes?? Maybe if it's the first shot of a pair on one target, maybe not if it's the second and you're already moving.

But.. thinking about all that during a stage for each shot is a big loser. When you approach the stage, decide what an acceptable level of vision/hits is and go with that.

[mcoliver]

I just try to guess "higher than 5" or "lower than 5". A rough estimate. If it's lower than 5.0 then I won't allow anything other than A hits.

Would it be the same rule if the stage requires lots of running? I figured, if you're not a fairly fast runner, you better make up on your shooting...

[shred]

I just try to guess "higher than 5" or "lower than 5". A rough estimate. If it's lower than 5.0 then I won't allow anything other than A hits.

Would it be the same rule if the stage requires lots of running? I figured, if you're not a fairly fast runner, you better make up on your shooting...

How fast you run and how far you have to run figures into what your estimated time will be, which you then divide by points-available (or points-expected, as you prefer) to estimate your HF. By the time you've got a HF estimate for yourself, your running is already built-in.

[EricW]

BE converted me to the "shoot A's as rapidly as possible and let the HF be what it is" mentality over beers at the trivia question for this month

How can you really do much else? Seriously. With all the mental gyrations people are talking about in this thread, I don't see how you can possibly walk up to the line and shoot a stage on autopilot like you need to.

[markm]

DITTO EricW. I do a whole lot better when I get my brain out of the way.....

[eric nielsen]

Don't like to complicate things that much. Just "see enough for an A" on low hit factors. And every Virginia Count stage.

On steel, one-for-one is the only way to go, ever. Practice on paper plates if you can't practice on steel.

[shred]

I hate to wake up this snoozing thread, but had a couple great examples from this weekend's match in mind.

One stage had mostly somewhat hard shots-- 5 longish hard cover targets, 8 small plates & poppers, but had four wide open targets behind a wall at about 5 yards. The number of people that came around the wall and just hosed at brown as fast as possible was large.. but, this was not a high HF hoser stage... Something to remember-- if the stage has a 5 HF, each point down on every target, near or far, wide open or not, costs you 1/5th of a second. Stage designers do this to trick you into hosing-- don't do it, keep shooting those A's. I did that and won the stage.

The next stage was a hoser stage. The usual targets-behind-barrels-charge-downrange affair. HHF was around 12 as I remember. But, I figured that out in advance and so, like an idiot, though to myself "high HF, I'd better beat feet through this one". Bzzt. Wrong! I threw a bunch of crappy shots and ended up way down the results all because I was trying to go fast. Shoot good points.. it works.

[ErikW]

Something to remember-- if the stage has a 5 HF, each point down on every target, near or far, wide open or not, costs you 1/5th of a second. Stage designers do this to trick you into hosing-- don't do it, keep shooting those A's. I did that and pulled off a stage win on this one.

That squeaking sound you hear is the hamster turning the wheel in my brain. That is absolutely the best tip I have had in ages. I've read various things like Burkett's factoring, I've had Voigt emphasize the absurdity of shooting non-As on the close targets, but it took your post to make me "get it."

Yesterday I went and dropped stupid points in the final six-target hoser section of a stage that featured an awkward position, small steel behind big steel, smaller steel behind small steel, hardcover, and 10-yard shoot-on-the-move targets behind no shoots. The really stupid thing is that I helped build the stage and I was mostly responsible for the final six hoser targets! The HHF was 6.6, so I could have taken .15 extra for each C and .45 extra for that ugly D. Really, getting an A instead of D would have only cost me under .15, so I could have had a better time and the HHF could have been 6.7.

A tenth of a HF is what separates each of the top 16 in a nationals stage. For the guys around 30th on the stage, it's like 5 or 6 positions.

[Flexmoney]

Erik,

I think Shred has posted that lesson four or five times. I started making myself read every word anytime Shred tickles the keyboard.