u can miss fast enough to win.

[Wild Gene]

Oops, my bad, just re read the topic, I guess I will have to keep on trying.

Have to agree with some, it can happen, but it is not usually as likely. It does also depend on the skill level of everyone else at the match. I have won a cowboy match with misses, but 99% of the time, that will only get you so far.

The way this game is scored, really puts a twist on things. I admit there are ways to play that are better than others, and times that you are better having a fast miss, but I am admittedly not at that level in learning this game.

Interesting thread. I do bet that most GMs would say you can't miss fast enough to win.

Very interesting indeed.

Thanks for the posts.

[Flexmoney]

I think this illustrates the point. It's all about

[alpha-charlie]

I think this illustrates the point. It's all about

DAMN IT!!! I can't believe I fell for that........again!!!!!

[Chills1994]

what would be interesting is to compare the mike totals of GMs and Ms at Limited or Open Nats versus the rest of the field of A's through D's....

for example, word it like this the GMs and Ms were 5% of the shooters but only put up 0.5% of the mikes in the whole match.

[Chills1994]

I was about to run all the numbers on the 214 competitors who completed the 2010 Limited Nat's, but then I was like, "Nah...."

so here are the highlights...err...lowlights

1. first place overall and a GM 6 misses

18. first place master just 3 mikes

37. first place A just 3 mikes

48. first place B 6 mikes

83. first place C 8 mikes

109. last place GM 15 mikes

185. last place A 11 mikes

201. second place D 9 mikes (first place D didn't have a member number to click on)

207. seoncd to last C 22 mikes ( last place C didn't have a member number to click on either)

208. last place B 11 mikes

209. last place Master 32 mikes

214. last place D 26 mikes.

just eyeballing the numbers in the performance summaries real quick, it is probably the combination of the mikes and the hits on the NO SHOOTS that is most glaring.

[BPiatt]

Those are some incredible stats. Just proves my opinion that IPSC/USPSA scoring system is flawed. Miss penalties need to be higher.

In the years I was active in USPSA handguns, I did 12 or so Open Nationals in a row, with the majority without any penalties, and never did worse than 15th or better than 6th, if my memory serves me correct. In those years (late 80's to 1999, my last National) even the winners had one or two misses, max.

Once the "run & gun" matches started, the DVC balance leaned to "speed" becoming more important than anything else.

I guess my philiosphy is more like Alamo Shooter. I personally feel better shooting a "clean match" and not winning, than slinging misses everywhere and scoring better.

[Chills1994]

Hey, Bruce, thanks for chiming in on this thread.

In case you missed it the first time, this is what I wrote at the bottom:

just eyeballing the numbers in the performance summaries real quick, it is probably the combination of the mikes and the hits on the NO SHOOTS that is most glaring.

If you're closer to the bottom of the results (regardless of the letter(s) after your name), you are more likely to have your mike shots fall into a no shoot. A double whammie!

If you are closer to the top of the results, if you throw a mike you are less likely to put it into a no shoot. Or if you do hit a no shoot and call it, you send another round downrange as a make up or insurance shot and get it onto the steel or the brown paper...so no mikes.

As far as the pendulum swinging towards the speed end of things, I can't really say. I didn't shoot that match. I haven't even looked at the stage designs/descriptions, and really if I were to dig deeper into the stats and try to offer my analysis of it...would anyone here really care?

I would have to know what the minimum round count for the match was vs. everybody's cumulative stage times (raw stage times added together) to tell you if it was a stage (EDIT: I mean speed) shoot or not.

Edited December 28, 2010 by Chills1994

[GentlemanJim]

I think this illustrates the point. It's all about

DAMN IT!!! I can't believe I fell for that........again!!!!!

LMAO

I have been waiting for a response to that link...and as I suspected

When I saw Flex posted it...I KNEW what it HAD to be

Whew....dodged a bullet

Jim

[smokshwn]

Those are some incredible stats. Just proves my opinion that IPSC/USPSA scoring system is flawed. Miss penalties need to be higher.

In the years I was active in USPSA handguns, I did 12 or so Open Nationals in a row, with the majority without any penalties, and never did worse than 15th or better than 6th, if my memory serves me correct. In those years (late 80's to 1999, my last National) even the winners had one or two misses, max.

Once the "run & gun" matches started, the DVC balance leaned to "speed" becoming more important than anything else.

I guess my philiosphy is more like Alamo Shooter. I personally feel better shooting a "clean match" and not winning, than slinging misses everywhere and scoring better.

I think there is a fair analogy to be made with any sport that rewards pushing the envelope with respect to risk. If you are a gymnast for instance you can choose maneuvers that may be less difficult but allow you to complete them perfectly without mistake. However there are also maneuvers that are so difficult that the score for completing them with minor flaws is more valueable than the less difficult maneuver executed perfectly.

I think that it is an asset to our sport that, although not a predominant occurrence, there is reward to those who take the extra risk of a miss or penalty at the expense of pushing the envelope and going ever faster.

Edited December 27, 2010 by smokshwn

[Wild Gene]

I am curious how many make up shots were taken by the ones with fewer misses.

[Lanzo]

I'm with Jake. One guy may do it, but I am almost sure that if you ask him he'll say he wasn't "missing intentionally" because he thought it would be an advantage. The guys at the top push it to the limit and gobble up every pt they can get. When you push the limits of your ability (regardless of your level: D,C, B, A, M, or GM) misses happen. The thing about if how if the other guy shot clean seals it for me. They both pushed themselves and had some misses in there. The winner just pushed a bit faster.

As for people talking about how shooting against lower classed shooters and "missing fast enough to win." WTF are we talking about here? If the top guy in C gets like 60th at a national or regional event he really didn't win anything. Instead of writing "60th place" on his trophy they replaced it with "1st C-Class." Mission "Get a Warm and Fuzzy" complete.

Today's America man....Everybody makes the football team, everybody gets a trophy. Kind of sad when you think about it.

--Lanzo

ETA: +1 to smokshwn's last sentence.

Edited December 27, 2010 by Lanzo

[ong45]

Those are some incredible stats. Just proves my opinion that IPSC/USPSA scoring system is flawed. Miss penalties need to be higher.

Once the "run & gun" matches started, the DVC balance leaned to "speed" becoming more important than anything else.

I guess my philiosphy is more like Alamo Shooter. I personally feel better shooting a "clean match" and not winning, than slinging misses everywhere and scoring better.

My memory could be flawed but this nationals seemed to have as difficult shots as i have ever seen.

We need to give Nils more credit, he might have just put a big time ass whoopin on everyone else.

Edited December 27, 2010 by ong45

[Flexmoney]

Those are some incredible stats. Just proves my opinion that IPSC/USPSA scoring system is flawed. Miss penalties need to be higher.

In the years I was active in USPSA handguns, I did 12 or so Open Nationals in a row, with the majority without any penalties, and never did worse than 15th or better than 6th, if my memory serves me correct. In those years (late 80's to 1999, my last National) even the winners had one or two misses, max.

Once the "run & gun" matches started, the DVC balance leaned to "speed" becoming more important than anything else.

I guess my philiosphy is more like Alamo Shooter. I personally feel better shooting a "clean match" and not winning, than slinging misses everywhere and scoring better.

Bruce, I don't know that I disagree (or agree) with your opinion on miss penalties , but those stats don't prove it.

Folks, this is simply math. It is points divided by time. Plain and simple. (simple?...lol)

Anyway...a miss is down 15 points (-10 for the penalty and -5 for not getting the Alpha). That is a fixed amount. How much that hurts on any given stage is variable, depending on the divisor (the stage time).

Well, then there is the stage weight...how many points the stage is worth. (I think it's a good thing, I am sure others don't).

And, we grade on the curve, where the highest hit factor on a stage gets 100% of the points and everybody else is graded off of that performance. (another good thing, IMO)

Whether a stage (or match) is a hoser, accuracy based, balanced, etc.... that is often easy to read by looking at the resulting hit factors and stage results. If everybody is scoring 15+ hit factors...that is a speedy stage.

In the match that was brought up here (2010 Limited), out of the top 5 Limited shooters (including 3 past National Champs)...out of 90 stages they shot...they only had 6 stages between them where they scored a 10 hit factor or better.

Nils averaged a hit factor for the match of ~ 7.3 (think about it)

That is 7.3 points per second.

The inverse of that is 0.137seconds per point. ( 1 / 7.3 = 0.137)

Which means a miss (-15 points) costs him about 2 seconds per. (0.137 * 15 = 2.06)

In this match, the 5th place shooter was only 60 points back over the 18 stage match. Not much room to give up 2 seconds. And, heck...I can reload, move, and transition to a plate on a moving Texas star in less time than that. (So, any of the top 5 certainly "have time" to take care of their hits.)

Nils just rocked the match. And, looking at the HF's, it wasn't a hoser match.

I think we need to get him into an Open gun and get him after the World Champ. (The current World Champ is as fast as anybody, and makes up Delta hits on the fly. )

[Wild Gene]

Flex,

Awesome post! That is the part of the game I need to understand better. Thank you.

Geno

[CHA-LEE]

I think there is a big difference between pushing the envelope of solid shooting fundamentals and ending up with a miss on a stage, verses intentionally circumventing your shooting fundamentals in order to go faster and accepting a miss at the price of a speedy time.

It would be nice to get Nils perspective on his shooting strategy and intentions for the 2010 Nationals. I can't speak for him as I don't even know the guy, but I doubt that he went into the match with a mindset of "I don't care if I get my hits or not, I just want to go super fast and see where I end up". In the few videos I have seen of his shooting his ultra speedy stage times are not due to shooting wildly out of control. He is killing everyone on the stages by highly optimized movement through the stages.

Edited December 27, 2010 by CHA-LEE

[GentlemanJim]

Flex,

Awesome post! That is the part of the game I need to understand better. Thank you.

Geno

+1 on Flex...He has a way of getting down to the nuts and bolts of an issue

Jim

[Flexmoney]

He is killing everyone on the stages by highly optimized movement through the stages.

I think he teleports or something.

[Jake Di Vita]

I'd be interested to see video of him from the nationals (or anywhere else really). Anyone have links?

[Sean Gaines]

I'd be interested to see video of him from the nationals (or anywhere else really). Anyone have links?

Nils video is all over youtube.

I didn't realize that Nils beat the second place competitor by 20seconds in the match, that alot! I am just guessing but previous winners I am sure the total time was a little closer than that. It seems at Nats the competitors are shooting pretty much the same times, and boils down to good points.

[Wild Gene]

He is killing everyone on the stages by highly optimized movement through the stages.

I think he teleports or something.

He is ultra smooooth, isn't he. I see guys go through stages in uncontrolled chaos, controlled chaos, and then this guy is refined to the point that he can wear black socks with shorts and no one even mentions it to him.

I believe that when you can flow through a stage like that, you can afford a miss. I believe to get to that point, you have to learn to get the hits at your pace, then push yourself, and repeat.

You are not going to win if you miss fast enough, you are going to win when you learn to flow through a stage like Nils.

[Flexmoney]

I'd be interested to see video of him from the nationals (or anywhere else really). Anyone have links?

Picture Brad B. with a splash of Robbie & Taran.

[CHA-LEE]

I'd be interested to see video of him from the nationals (or anywhere else really). Anyone have links?

Check out the below YouTube link. Look at all of the Area 2 vid's. This is a very good and telling comparison of shooting techniques and strategies used between Nils and Taran as they shoot the same stages. Nils flows through the stages shooting and moving quickly and efficiently. I don't mean to put down Taran at all but watching his stage runs compared to Nils is like watching a Viking wielding a battle axe verses someone fencing nimbly on their feet. The main thing that keeps Taran in the hunt is his crazy fast splits on difficult shots. Honestly its fun to see two completely different strategies produce pretty much the same hit factors. If Nils could shoot as fast at Taran while maintaining his movement skills I don't think anyone would have a chance in hell in beating him..... EVER

http://www.youtube.com/user/downzeroproductions

[bofe954]

Here's a link to one stage I found:

The commentary is priceless relating to this thread, it looks like it is written by Nils:

"14.69 was the fastest time, But with points down, Finished 2nd"

He did win one stage with a mike on it. But if you look he didn't do too well (for him) on the stages he had misses on, he just did real well overall.

This particular stage Vogel won, with a time of 15.63, but 24 A's and 4 C's vs. 15 A 11C and 2 D.

[smokshwn]

I think there is a big difference between pushing the envelope of solid shooting fundamentals and ending up with a miss on a stage, verses intentionally circumventing your shooting fundamentals in order to go faster and accepting a miss at the price of a speedy time.

It would be nice to get Nils perspective on his shooting strategy and intentions for the 2010 Nationals. I can't speak for him as I don't even know the guy, but I doubt that he went into the match with a mindset of "I don't care if I get my hits or not, I just want to go super fast and see where I end up". In the few videos I have seen of his shooting his ultra speedy stage times are not due to shooting wildly out of control. He is killing everyone on the stages by highly optimized movement through the stages.

Charlie,

Great post. In reading the responses concerning Nils in this thread there is a sense that the posters think his achievment was born out of carelessness caused by his speed.

However, you summed it up very well. Having shot the match with him, it was more than evident that his preparation, practice, hard work allowed him to shoot the match with a level of focus, determination, and confidence that would be hard for anyone to duplicate.

Edited December 27, 2010 by smokshwn

[Wild Gene]

In reading the responses concerning Nils in this thread there is a sense that the posters think his achievment was born out of carelessness caused by his speed.

I think it is the exact opposite.