Interesting thread, and lots of insight.
Bones, while I am unable to do those math calcs on my own, you explained it well and the logic is sound.
I consider myself an example of that. A small country, where shooting is somewhat politically incorrect and dominated by a minority demographic group, does not bode well for proper statistical data as the number of competitors are so low.
Yet here I am, classified as EX due to a match bump. I find myself somewhat disappointed, as I am not able to shoot EX on the Classifier. Yet. But someone had to be bumped, whether or not anyone from that group are indeed at EX level.
Okay since then I have started taking the sport more seriously, reading up on stuff (thanks, Mr Stoeger) and gaining advice, dry firing and practicing when I have the time. I feel like I need to be able to shoot EX at a Classifier to prove to myself that I earn the classification. There is a measure of responsibility that goes with it. I pitch at my local club (which has 2 MAs and I think 3 EXs), and some of the NOs and MMs in my detail would actually stand around and watch me shoot or ask advice, etc, and I don't want to be giving out incorrect info, and I don't feel qualified to answer them.
Either way, I have improved a lot, so we'll see at the next Classifier early next year.
What I can say, is that this mechanical system of improving classifications have forced me to become a better shooter.
In answer to the OP, then: do not sandbag the Classifier. Do your best, and accept the classification it spits out.