Missed (mike) shot penalty

[jstagn]

On the overall results within your divsion, does it matter whether you have a mike on a low point stage (say 60 point) versus a high point stage (say 160 possible points) ? Is the 10 point penalty plus the points you may have shot (A,b,c,d) matter on what stage?. Realize the object is to get all points possible, but this is just hypothetical.   Thanks.

[TennJeep1618]

This probably won't come out the right way, but it has to do with the relationship of stage percentage to match points.  It all depends on how far that mike drops you down in the stage percentage as to how bad it will affect your overall match points.  If that one mike drops you from 100% to 50% in stage percentage (all other things being equal), then a mike on the 160 point stage will have a greater affect on the overall match points (results).

 

Edited September 16, 2016 by TennJeep1618

[ATLDave]

That's not how the points work.  Raw stage points available (the points on the targets) are NOT match points.  At all.  There's no mathematical linkage between them.

Match points are allocated by hit factor relative to the best performance on the stage.  Raw stage points go into the HF calculation, but are otherwise not involved in allocating match points.

So a mike on one stage may have a very different impact on your overall placement than a mike on another stage.  

[uewpew]

1 minute ago, ATLDave said:

Match points are allocated by hit factor relative to the best performance on the stage.  Raw stage points go into the HF calculation, but are otherwise not involved in allocating match points.

ATLDave, Since raw stage points are used to calculate hit factor, and your hit factor determines your match points, you're raw stage points do mathematically link to your overall score.

Jstagn,

TennJeep1618 is correct in that it all depends on how the mike affects your HF and therefore stage percentage.  A better rule of thumb is mikes have more negative impact to your score on a low HF stage (whether that stage is 60 points or 160 points), since on a low hit factor stage, points have more impact than time on your HF.  

If you're somewhat good with spreadsheets and understand how hit factor is calculated, you can create hypothetical scenarios and will help you "see" how points, time, & penalties affect your HF for various types of stages.  

 

 

[GorillaTactical]

Figured I'd just draw up a few examples based on the question asked...not sure what this proves, if anything...

 

Match 1 shows examples with high HF stages.  EX1 shows a clean run, whereas EX2 shows the same stage with the lost points.  For the sake of argument, we've said that at your best, you are shooting +/- 83% of the best shooter when he/she is shooting their best. 

Match 2 shows examples with Midrange/Lower HF stages.  EX1 shows a clean run, whereas EX2 shows the same stage with the lost points.  For the sake of argument, we've said that at your best, you are shooting +/- 83% of the best shooter when he/she is shooting their best. 

This is only 1 quick example...I'd encourage you dig deeper and just run some possible scenarios on your own and see how it plays out.

 

Match 1:

Stage 1: 6 Targets, 60 Points - You can shoot it in 6 seconds, winner shoots in 5

Clean - 60/6=10 HF

With Miss - 45/6=7.5 HF

Top Overall - 60/5=12 HF

EX1) 10/12 = 83% = 50 points / 60 points on the stage

EX2) 7.5/12= 62.5% = 37.5 points / 60 points on the stage = -12.5 match points

 

Stage 2: 16 Targets, 160 Points - You can shoot it in 16 seconds, winner shoots it in 13.33

Clean - 160/16=10 HF

With Miss - 145/16=9.06 HF

Top Overall - 160/13.33=12 HF

EX1) 10/12 = 83% = 133 points / 160 points on the stage

EX2) 9.06/12= 75.5% = 120.8 points / 160 points on the stage = -12.5 match points

 

Match 2:

Stage 1: 6 Targets, 60 Points - You can shoot it in 12 seconds, winner shoots in 10

Clean - 60/12=5 HF

With Miss - 45/12=3.75 HF

Top Overall - 60/10=6 HF

EX1) 5/6 = 83% = 50 points / 60 points on the stage

EX2) 3.75/6= 62.5% = 37.5 points / 60 points on the stage = -12.5 match points

 

Stage 2: 16 Targets, 160 Points - You can shoot it in 32 seconds, winner shoots it in 26.66

Clean - 160/32=5 HF

With Miss - 145/32=4.53 HF

Top Overall - 160/26.66=6 HF

EX1) 5/6 = 83% = 133 points / 160 points on the stage

EX2) 4.53/6= 75.5% = 120.8 points / 160 points on the stage = -12.5 match points 

 

If anyone sees an issue with the math, please feel free to note it, and I'll update as needed.  I did do a tad bit of rounding just to make it easier to read, but should all be +/-.

Edited September 16, 2016 by GorillaTactical

[motosapiens]

as gorillatactical has aptly demonstrated, the effect of a mike has more to do with what percentage of the winner you are shooting (in terms of match points). The closer you are to the stage winner's percentage, the closer that mike is to costing you the full 15 pts.

 

However, as a mathematician, I find that information to be of no practical value whatsoever. There is no good reason to let it affect your shooting in any way. Shoot alphas as fast as you can. avoid mikes.

[Gooldylocks]

On September 16, 2016 at 3:27 PM, motosapiens said:

However, as a mathematician, I find that information to be of no practical value whatsoever. There is no good reason to let it affect your shooting in any way. Shoot alphas as fast as you can. avoid mikes.

ding ding ding, we have a winner. 

[BeerBaron]

the examples above all total out the same as the HF is the same.

in round terms it works like this. on high HF stages time is more important. these  are generally fast blasting type stages with lots of points to get but not a huge amount of movement of difficult shots. think 160 point stages in 15 seconds. 

On low HF stages points become really important. think 80 point stage that takes 30 seconds (either due to long range, difficult shooting, maybe prone position, or just lots of movement). 

In these examples assume your best performance on stage 1 was 160 points in 15 seconds. 10.6 HF. Stage 2 of 80 points in 30 seconds is a lowly 2.6 HF.

Now add 2 seconds of time to your stage run. stage 1 becomes 9.4HF which is 88% of the 'best' run. on stage 2, 2 extra seconds gives you 2.5HF which is 96% of the previous best stage run. So you can see on stage 1 any small slip up in time is going to tank your HF a tiny 2 second slip up doing a standing reload cost you 12% of your 'match points' which on this 160 point stage would be a cost of 19.2 points. massive. on stage 2, you can afford an extra makeup shot, or an extra careful sight picture without tanking the (relative) HF. 2 seconds time on stage 2 only costs you a tiny 3.2 match points. 

Now lets try points. lets go back to stage one still at the original 15 seconds but now 10 points down for 150 points. That's 10 HF which is 94% of our 'best' run. on stage 2 if we do  the same and drop 10 points it becomes 2.3HF which is 88%. 

At the end of the day you don't even need these complicated examples to figure it out. USPSA is purely a HIT FACTOR game. Hit factor is nothing but a fancy way of saying 'points per second'. on stages that have more available points per second (high HF) the time is more important. on stages with less available point per second (low HF) the points become more important.

This can be summed up exactly by what motosapiens said which is basically "get as many points as you can, as fast as you can".

 

 

 

 

 

[GorillaTactical]

On 9/20/2016 at 2:35 AM, BeerBaron said:

the examples above all total out the same as the HF is the same

 

Not really sure that I understand this - I built 2 different examples with different hit factors, so, they certainly aren't the same; Match 1 shows high HF and Match 2 shows lower HF.  Then within those examples, you can look at points available per stage.  Based on what I've written out above, we can compare high point stages to low point stages and/or high hit factor stages to low hit factor stages...all other things the same, the mike hurts the same on your overall match points despite the fact that you may drop a different amount of stage percentage based on HF and available points for said stage.

 

I agree with the rest of the assessment above regarding ways to approach stages differently/take makeup shots etc based on estimated HF.  But I read the OP as, all things the same...you approach a stage, call good hits on everything, shoot consistently vs the best shooter, etc. ...does a mike hurt more to your overall standings in one place or another?  Appears that the answer is no, so long as you do everything else the same.

 

On 9/16/2016 at 5:27 PM, motosapiens said:

as gorillatactical has aptly demonstrated, the effect of a mike has more to do with what percentage of the winner you are shooting (in terms of match points). The closer you are to the stage winner's percentage, the closer that mike is to costing you the full 15 pts

I believe Moto said it best...the affect of the mike on your overall match points has much more to do with what percentage of the best shooter you are shooting.

 

And...I think we can all agree that all A's with no mikes, is the best way to go.

Edited September 21, 2016 by GorillaTactical

[MemphisMechanic]

The important takeaway from this is that mikes always hurt. A lot. Call your shots, make them up every time. Or don't sling them toward the targets in the first place - particularly because shots slapped in the direction of the target are really like to wind up as misses. And even more likely to magically wind up as noshoots.

Edited September 22, 2016 by MemphisMechanic
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[GorillaTactical]

3 hours ago, MemphisMechanic said:

The important takeaway from this is that mikes always hurt. A lot. Call your shots, make them up every time.

 indeed.