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Bread, Beef and Other Foods That Will Cost Way More Next Year
By Martha C. WhiteDec. 16, 20135 Comments
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Tina Fineberg / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Got milk? You probably will next year — reports of $8-a-gallon milk are overblown, but there are some food items that will have you digging deeper in your pockets next year.
Beef: Where’s the beef, indeed? Beef prices have been on a tear lately, experts say, and it’s not likely to let up anytime soon. Corinne Alexander, an associate professor at Purdue University, tells trade publication Supermarket News that because of several factors, “beef prices are probably going to stay high for at least the next few years.

Market research firm the NPD Group says in a new report by restaurant industry analyst Bonnie Riggs that “expected price increases” for beef will create a headache for restaurant-goers, but it’s likely to hit consumers even harder. NPD Group vice president Harry Balzer says that while only about 30% of what we pay at restaurants reflects the costs of food, around 80% of our grocery bill is food costs.

Bread: Our daily bread might get more expensive next year, according to aUSDA report update in October. “both wheat and wheat flour prices increased last month—wheat by 4.9 percent and wheat flour by 3.6 percent. These increases support the notion that inflation for bread and cereal prices in the supermarket will pick up in 2014,” the agency’s Economic Research Service says.

Cereal: The most important meal of the day could cost you a little more if your breakfast consists of digging into a bowl of flakes, puffs or o’s, according to that same USDA report.

(MORE: Is It Time to Start Stockpiling Bacon?)

Wild fish: According to the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization, the price of wild-caught fish has come close to doubling between 1990 and last year, although the price of farmed fish hasn’t gone up nearly as much. The Economist blames overfishing for the fact that the amount of wild fish caught has barely budged in more than two decades, even as global demand for fish slyrockets. With more demand and limited supply, experts say there’s only one place for prices to go, and that’s up.

Chocolate: Sorry, chocoholics; your habit is about to get more expensive. CNBC says the cost of the raw ingredients that go into a chocolate bar climbed by 28% between the beginning of this year and October, and experts say prices are only going to climb higher, a combination of growing demand, unpredictable weather and political volatility in the world’s biggest cocoa-producing areas. Chocolate expert Angus Kennedy warns CNBC that consumers with a sweet tooth and the means to indulge it “are prepared to pay” nearly six-and-a-half bucks for a two-ounce chocolate bar.

(MORE: How to Beat Rising Food Prices: Be Smart About When You Buy)

There is some good news on the horizon when it comes to food prices, though: We won’t be seeing pigs fly in 2014. Earlier increases in bacon prices appear to be on the way to a reversal, as a 38% drop in corn prices made it cheaper for farmers to fatten up their pigs. “Pork-belly prices plunged 23 percent since the end of September, and hog futures will fall 14 percent next year,” Bloomberg reported yesterday.


Read more: Bread, Beef and Other Foods That Will Cost Way More Next Year | TIME.com http://business.time.com/2013/12/16/oh-god-no-bread-beef-and-other-foods-that-will-cost-way-more-next-year/#ixzz2vHTDIYiq

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In 2004 lead was about 20 cents per pound. It has come down recently to 1 dollar a pound. Lead is a commodity and commodities are typically sound markets in terms of how you would normally think of supply and demand. Although there is some environmental compliance interference even internationally.

Lead would have to be (totally guessing) 50-60 % of the price if bullets? So as the main component goes so does the price. Brass would be the other big component. And I couldn't find a chart of prices, all metals are up over the last few years.

So - I think it's a bit naive to say companies just charge more because people are buying more. It's true in some cases to an extent but I don't think it is what's going on with ammo

If you don't think lead prices are up just look at bloomberg or any other commodity tracker.

I posted this earlier in the thread, but it might have been hard to spot below that big CTD image... :)

This is spot lead over the last three year. To me it looks like lead is down about 20% over that time and about flat for the last two years.

Clearly the price of lead is not the source of price increases.

post-8221-0-31897900-1393958878.png

Here's the 5y spot. There was a sharp increase in -09, but lead price has been pretty flat since August of -09.

spot-lead-5y-Large.gif

Here's the spot price of copper, which would be the other major component of most bullets and brass. It did increase more than lead bacj in -09 and 10, but even copper has been pretty much flat for the last four years (discounting the peak in -11, which lead had as well)

spot-copper-5y-Large.gif

Look at lead prices in 2004. I was referencing 10 years. I also mentioned prices were down recently. So we are looking at the same charts.

I looked at some stock info. Really the first one I found was Olin. It looks like they made about 55 million in profit on around 600 million in sales. That translates to about 8% profit rate. That's not bad but it's not great either. I didn't have time to track down more info. My only point is most manufacturers aren't hoarding huge profits. They provide a decent return to investors.

Their is an underlying cost to build ammo. Those underlyings are up significantly over a decade ago.

It would be interesting to baseline peoples understanding of price increases. Over what time frame? What was a box of 9mm ammo from 2004, 2010 and today.

To hear some describe it, ammo used to be free and now it isn't.

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And I am definitely not saying commodity prices are the only contributor to current ammo prices. But demand alone does not set ammo prices. At least demand for ammo alone. Demand for those commodities drives a base price for ammo. Beyond that demand of ammo, and corporate finance objectives and etc etc drive prices.

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While there are many factors at play in the cost of making and supplying anything,ultimately the market sets the price. What is anything worth? What someone else is willing to pay.

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I repeat, the market is not good or bad, just pure. Demand is up. Way up. Period.

I won't deny demand is up, but that doesn't negate both mfgrs and distributors taking advantage of it to jack prices further.

Distributor pricing has changed very little throughout the latest scare, while retail prices have gone through the roof. Example - how many $99 AR mags from Cheaper Than Dirt should I put you down for?

Greed certainly plays a part here, as well. "Because we can."

Those taking whatever I or someone else believes is 'unfair advantage' of the current situation are betting we won't find other alternatives, or won't remember if/when their prices come down. Many of us are remembering, and have already stopped spending a dime with CTD, Dick's, and others, and many influence their friends or in this case, other shooters to do the same.

My personal 9mm or .223 projectile threshold for non-specialty bullets is around 10c/rd. MG and PD are both damned close to it, and alternatives exist. Xtreme, RMR, BBI, SNS, Bayou can get you into the 6.x-8c/rd range. I'm not ready to write off MG or PD at this point, but we'll see if they've continued raising prices while others remain steady once I break into my last case of MGs. Some retailers on the other hand = never again.

Edited by rtp
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Yep, I left MG quite a while ago .... They were much prouder of their product than I was ... Lot's of alternatives that work equally well in our sport of practical shooting ....

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Some do take profit. I see people paying 35-45 dollars for glock magazines. 30 seconds of internet searching can find places selling them for 25.

I think some people pay whatever a retailer asks and never know what the market actually says something is worth. Fortunately the internet can show you what the market will bear.

There are companies that are very reputable in terms of how they advocate for the consumer. I work for one and that's why I get a little defensive on this topic. I can see cost and retail for 12 years and the margin hasn't gotten fat. At least not where I work.

Don't know about others. And ammo has been in short supply since Obama began looking like he would get elected.

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In 2004 lead was about 20 cents per pound. It has come down recently to 1 dollar a pound. Lead is a commodity and commodities are typically sound markets in terms of how you would normally think of supply and demand. Although there is some environmental compliance interference even internationally.

Lead would have to be (totally guessing) 50-60 % of the price if bullets? So as the main component goes so does the price. Brass would be the other big component. And I couldn't find a chart of prices, all metals are up over the last few years.

So - I think it's a bit naive to say companies just charge more because people are buying more. It's true in some cases to an extent but I don't think it is what's going on with ammo

If you don't think lead prices are up just look at bloomberg or any other commodity tracker.

I posted this earlier in the thread, but it might have been hard to spot below that big CTD image... :)

This is spot lead over the last three year. To me it looks like lead is down about 20% over that time and about flat for the last two years.

Clearly the price of lead is not the source of price increases.

Here's the 5y spot. There was a sharp increase in -09, but lead price has been pretty flat since August of -09.

Here's the spot price of copper, which would be the other major component of most bullets and brass. It did increase more than lead bacj in -09 and 10, but even copper has been pretty much flat for the last four years (discounting the peak in -11, which lead had as well)

Look at lead prices in 2004. I was referencing 10 years. I also mentioned prices were down recently. So we are looking at the same charts.

I looked at some stock info. Really the first one I found was Olin. It looks like they made about 55 million in profit on around 600 million in sales. That translates to about 8% profit rate. That's not bad but it's not great either. I didn't have time to track down more info. My only point is most manufacturers aren't hoarding huge profits. They provide a decent return to investors.

Their is an underlying cost to build ammo. Those underlyings are up significantly over a decade ago.

It would be interesting to baseline peoples understanding of price increases. Over what time frame? What was a box of 9mm ammo from 2004, 2010 and today.

To hear some describe it, ammo used to be free and now it isn't.

Increase in ammo prices due to rising commodity prices between until 2009 or so, absolutely, as the increase was pretty steep.

However, I understood the OP as complaining about price increases in the shorter term (1-3 years) and for that time period there's no real basis to blame price increases due to commodity prices as they have basically been flat for five years.

Yes, would be interesting to see how the cost of ammo have changed over the last 15 years. Did it follow the price of the underlying commodities back up until 2009 and how much did it change since?

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I truly enjoy healthy debate and I hope no one mistakes my zeal for bad intent.

But I find this whole thread particularly telling about our current state of affairs and culture. One dichotomy is rtp's post above that mentions "because they can" for retailer's price gouging. I see it as "because we let them". I popped in a LGS a few weeks ago to see about another mag for my G34 since I'm looking to do a bit more USPSA. The guy behind the counter roots around in a box if used mags and produces a Glock 9mm 17 round mag and says "$45 bucks". I promptly reply no thanks. Was I miffed at the LGS? Yep. But if there had been some bozo in there with me that said "I'll take it" I would have bit%$ slapped him. I am inclined to be more pissed at people who would give Cheaper Than Dirt $99 dollars for a box with a spring than at CTD themselves.

The simple fact is we do largly control the market whether we realize it or not. I am not real happy about all the price increases, but quite frankly my current financial situation allows me to continue to reload and shoot at current prices. I may decide before too long that it is not worth it, particularly if prices continue to increase. I will be sad and disappointed but I will drastically reduce or eliminate shooting and go back to playing more guitar or golf. There are many activities that I would like to do or try but cannot afford. I hope beyond hope that this doesn't happen to the shooting sports for me, but the sad reality is that it may.

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No...NOT! related to lead or copper at all, but rather aluminum. And how it affects the market price of aluminum. Pretty good racket, eh?

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/business/a-shuffle-of-aluminum-but-to-banks-pure-gold.html

EDIT:

Here is a good part from that article:

But the London Metal Exchange, which oversees 719 warehouses around the globe, has not always been an impartial arbiter it receives 1 percent of the rent collected by its warehouses worldwide. Until last year, it was owned by members, including Goldman, Barclays and Citigroup.

So basically, not only is the fox the landlord of the hen house, the fox is also owner of the landlord association which sets the market price for rent, which it in turn gets 1% off all the other rents paid to all the other landlords.

Sweet work if you can get it!

Edited by Chills1994
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No...NOT! related to lead or copper at all, but rather aluminum. And how it affects the market price of aluminum. Pretty good racket, eh?

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/07/21/business/a-shuffle-of-aluminum-but-to-banks-pure-gold.html

EDIT:

Here is a good part from that article:

But the London Metal Exchange, which oversees 719 warehouses around the globe, has not always been an impartial arbiter it receives 1 percent of the rent collected by its warehouses worldwide. Until last year, it was owned by members, including Goldman, Barclays and Citigroup.

So basically, not only is the fox the landlord of the hen house, the fox is also owner of the landlord association which sets the market price for rent, which it in turn gets 1% off all the other rents paid to all the other landlords.

Sweet work if you can get it!

Interesting but we are still talking about 1/4 cent per can of soda or 12 bucks on an entire automobile. Tragic but not enough to snap the heads around of the consumers. Coke says it avoids buying from them. Maybe others will follow suit. But don't get me wrong, I am with you (or anyone else) on corporate cronyism. But we as consumers and citizens have to be more aware and put our money where our mouth is.

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I really think that the lack of availability for many components - primarily powder - is as aggravating as prices. Many places, such as Powder Valley, have not really gone up that much on many of the components.

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What is corporate cronyism ?

​I am using the term a bit loosely and should probably have used a different adjective but the intent was to understand the point of the article mentioned in the post: Large powerful corporations, often colluding with government (local, state or federal) to subvert true capitalism and artificially alter the market value of something.

Definition of 'Crony Capitalism'

A description of capitalist society as being based on the close relationships between businessmen and the state. Instead of success being determined by a free market and the rule of law, the success of a business is dependent on the favoritism that is shown to it by the ruling government in the form of tax breaks, government grants and other incentives.
Edited by tbrtt1
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IN MY OPINION I believe a lot of the problems we are causing our selves. I'm not saying price gouging and other shit is not happening but have a few things I think might explain some of the problem.

1. Why do you need 500,000 per type of primers for a year?

2. Why do you need 75lbs of each powder?

3. Why do you need 20 cases of bullets at a time?

I watched people purchase tons of shit they didn't really need only to try to resell it to other members on this and many forums at a outrageous price and well DONT ASK ME WHY PEOPLE PAID IT

I understand the concept of the free market but i think we F#$K ourselves more then anything.

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I've talked to some ^$$holes at the local gunshows that tell me they either buy up anything they can find to hoard or to resell whenever it can be found.

They will even go into places multiple times to get around the 1-item per customer thing.

I've talked to dummies that go into debt to backorder hundreds of thousands of primers cuz they think they can resell them at a profit but not knowing when they will arrive.

When they do come and the price is slightly down they complain that they can't sell their huge stockpile.

You can't fix STUPID. If morons are going to pay high prices then the prices are going to stay high.

Nick

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IN MY OPINION I believe a lot of the problems we are causing our selves. I'm not saying price gouging and other shit is not happening but have a few things I think might explain some of the problem.

1. Why do you need 500,000 per type of primers for a year?

2. Why do you need 75lbs of each powder?

3. Why do you need 20 cases of bullets at a time?

While I understand what you are driving at, it does not alter the fact that during shortages a shooter just can't get this stuff. I have never hoarded in my life until taking up USPSA and high output reloading in 2009. The week I bought my press I could not find primers anywhere. I ended up finding Tula's on PV and, yes, I bought 20k because I had no idea how bad it might get. Since then I am never without at least 30k primers. Then came the bullet shortage. Harder for me to come up with enough money to buy cases of bullets every month but I order a case whenever I find a little free cash in the budget. Now powder is basically nonexistent. I am well stocked, but as soon as I start seeing it available I will order another box full. It just goes on and on. After a certain point you just have too much invested in this game to sit around and worry about being able to get ammo made to shoot.

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IN MY OPINION I believe a lot of the problems we are causing our selves. I'm not saying price gouging and other shit is not happening but have a few things I think might explain some of the problem.

1. Why do you need 500,000 per type of primers for a year?

2. Why do you need 75lbs of each powder?

3. Why do you need 20 cases of bullets at a time?

While I understand what you are driving at, it does not alter the fact that during shortages a shooter just can't get this stuff. I have never hoarded in my life until taking up USPSA and high output reloading in 2009. The week I bought my press I could not find primers anywhere. I ended up finding Tula's on PV and, yes, I bought 20k because I had no idea how bad it might get. Since then I am never without at least 30k primers. Then came the bullet shortage. Harder for me to come up with enough money to buy cases of bullets every month but I order a case whenever I find a little free cash in the budget. Now powder is basically nonexistent. I am well stocked, but as soon as I start seeing it available I will order another box full. It just goes on and on. After a certain point you just have too much invested in this game to sit around and worry about being able to get ammo made to shoot.

I agree Sarge I try to keep 30k Small Rifle, Pistol Primers, 10k of Large Pistol and Rifle and around 20lbs of WAC, H335, Varget that will last me about 2 years esp the rifle powders but IMO that's fine its the guys buying 500k a year to "STOCKPILE" I would love to see how they keep all that rotated

Maybe we can get lucky and I can find a guy that needs help rotating his stock :)

If you was closer I would help a fellow soldier no problem

Edited by deerassassin22
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Yeah, I agree, but until we get over the hump of the supple/demand curve, that isn't going to happen. Most of the buyers are just worried or scared and are trying to stock up a little. The supply chain side isn't very elastic. I mean that from mining the raw elements, transportation, refining the metals/ material, transportation, putting the pieces together to form primers, gunpowder, cases or bullets and transportation to the retailers, there isn't a lot of room to expand production... Some of the profiteers will eventually take a bath, but it may take a while.

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I've talked to some ^$$holes at the local gunshows that tell me they either buy up anything they can find to hoard or to resell whenever it can be found.

They will even go into places multiple times to get around the 1-item per customer thing.

I've talked to dummies that go into debt to backorder hundreds of thousands of primers cuz they think they can resell them at a profit but not knowing when they will arrive.

When they do come and the price is slightly down they complain that they can't sell their huge stockpile.

You can't fix STUPID. If morons are going to pay high prices then the prices are going to stay high.

Nick

I absolutely hope they lose their pants on it. I still don't know which is worse, when those buying up everything to throw on Gunbroker aren't even shooters, or when they are.

I've limited any 'sales' of any kind during the shortage to a trade here and there (for other components, not e.g. 3x boxes of primers for a firearm). The only deviation from that has been helping to set someone up reloading, at my cost/no profit.

Having said that, I also agree w/Sarge. When you see how crazy things can get, you figure out how much you shoot each year, and work out whatever your threshold may be - first enough components to keep you shooting for a year, then two or more. For the most part, I've got enough components (minus projectiles, working on it) to shoot for the next 4+ years now. Not all are necessarily 'ideal' components, but 'will work.'

Right now, waiting a while to see if/when things smooth out, but I also doubt I'll be ordering less than 20k primers and 30# or more of powder whenever I do place my next order...which is probably a year out at this point, anyways.

When projectiles go on sale, I still pick those up here and there, and am looking at picking up a few cases throughout this year.

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Mat, I agree with you to a point. Those companies won't go by the wayside. As the demand increases the price goes up. As people find other alternatives, the demand will go down and either their price will go back down or they will adjust to the different level of income. Remember, selling less product at a higher price will yield a greater return( to a point), with less stress and work on the labor force. The issue to remember is that the appetite for bullets hasn't gone down, just elsewhere. Those new suppliers who were cheaper will run their price up. They will do so because they see a greater demand for their product and think that their customers will pay more or in an effort to reduce backlogs to actually push customers away. That company's product will eventually catch up to the point that company A's product isn't so far out of line anymore. Donnie's bullets have seen a dramatic price increase over the past few years as well. Not bashing him or his bullets, I love them both, but the market is what it is at the moment. INFLATION, my brother.

I can guarantee you that the ones who are hit the hardest are the ones who jump out of the pot altogether and decide to jump back in one day down the line. It hurts way less if you stay in there and let that water heat up all around you. The other guarantee that I will make you is that whatever the price is today, fast forward five years and you will be kicking your own butt for not stocking up on components when they were as cheap as they are now.

I'll point out the obvious here, but if you are looking for ways to spend less money, get out of open.

Mat, I agree with you to a point. Those companies won't go by the wayside. As the demand increases the price goes up. As people find other alternatives, the demand will go down and either their price will go back down or they will adjust to the different level of income. Remember, selling less product at a higher price will yield a greater return( to a point), with less stress and work on the labor force. The issue to remember is that the appetite for bullets hasn't gone down, just elsewhere. Those new suppliers who were cheaper will run their price up. They will do so because they see a greater demand for their product and think that their customers will pay more or in an effort to reduce backlogs to actually push customers away. That company's product will eventually catch up to the point that company A's product isn't so far out of line anymore. Donnie's bullets have seen a dramatic price increase over the past few years as well. Not bashing him or his bullets, I love them both, but the market is what it is at the moment. INFLATION, my brother.

I can guarantee you that the ones who are hit the hardest are the ones who jump out of the pot altogether and decide to jump back in one day down the line. It hurts way less if you stay in there and let that water heat up all around you. The other guarantee that I will make you is that whatever the price is today, fast forward five years and you will be kicking your own butt for not stocking up on components when they were as cheap as they are now.

I'll point out the obvious here, but if you are looking for ways to spend less money, get out of open.

Thats my problem right now!..........I had to get out of shooting for about 5 years, so i sold everything i had Guns, Reloading supplies, all three of my Dillon presses, so now that i'm starting over it angers me to see how hoarding and knee jerk reactions of the general public has driven the Firearms and Ammunition markets out of this world!.....Consumers have Inflated their own market beyond affordability!? I remember 5 years ago you could get on this forum and the USPSA website and outfit yourself with quality gear for a fair and very reasonable price.....I started many new shooters by telling them to get on Enos read all you can ask as many questions as you need and by the time you have researched what division you want to shoot you will have enough post's to buy some really good equipment in the classifieds, Let me say it is still the best place i have found to buy gear but the truth is the only difference between a used Stock Limited gun and a brand new Stock Limited gun is about $100.00 That hurts when your trying to get into this sport!

I have only one more thing to buy to be ready to shoot this summer and that's a press but i have looked all over and most used presses out there are more then what Brian sells them for new! Which tells us that all of the hoard buying is over and now the market will be flooded with over priced firearms and Reloading presses and just wait until all the primers and powder hits yeehaw! life may get better!

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